Publications and Datasets

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country’s three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination). The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

A robust spectral-temporal index for cross-regional mapping of plastic-mulched farmland using decametric-resolution images

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Familiar strangers: The role of diaspora networks in foreign investment and long-run development

The state of global food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, emergency responses, and rationally allocating foreign aid. For decades, global food security monitoring relied on the FAO’s prevalence of undernourishment, but this indicator’s fundamental limitations led the FAO to develop the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and adopt the unaffordability of the healthy diet. In parallel, The World Bank monitors monetary poverty, arguably a food insecurity indicator in its own right. In this study we assess whether this larger suite of indicators agrees on: (a) which countries are most food insecure; and (b) whether global food insecurity is really deteriorating. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. Longstanding criticisms of the prevalence of undernourishment still apply, while rising undernourishment in the past decade is driven by modelled increases in calorie inequality that are inconsistent with income inequality trends. The FIES fares no better: severe FIES food insecurity is higher in several Latin American and Caribbean countries than in extremely food-insecure African countries such as Niger. The World Bank’s poverty and healthy diet affordability monitoring efforts are significantly constrained by systematically fewer household surveys in poorer and more crisis-affected countries. How can this situation be improved? First, experience-based indicators need to be more rigorously evaluated for cross-cultural comparability, and alternatives need to be considered. Second, international agencies and national governments should pool resources to implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose surveys – focusing on poor and crisis-affected countries – to jointly monitor food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition, as well as their root causes.

Food systems policy coherence: A ten-country assessment

Policy coherence is widely recognised as essential for achieving food systems transformation, but attempts to assess food systems policy coherence have been limited to date in terms of their scope of topics and geographies and lack of comparable methods. This paper introduces the Food Systems Policy Coherence (FSPC) Diagnostic Tool and uses it to analyse food systems policy coherence across 10 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia through key informant interviews (n = 189) and review of policy documents (n = 808). The FSPC Diagnostic Tool considers two aspects of policy coherence: (1) the structures and mechanisms that may contribute to achieving stronger policy process coherence and (2) coherence between policies from six sectors and ten common food systems goals. Regarding the former, all countries analysed had strong framework documents for cross-sectoral food policy, backed by high-level political commitment, but they tended to be much weaker when it came to capacity for implementation and especially monitoring and accountability. Policy coherence across sectors was generally strong for the goals of climate change adaptation and social protection but weaker for goals of healthy diets for all, adequate wages for food system workers, and climate change mitigation through food systems. Trade policy was the policy area with the greatest incoherence with a diverse range of food systems goals. The results offer the most comprehensive analysis of food systems policy coherence to date. The tool makes a useful contribution to measuring policy coherence and can serve as both a foundation for future research and enhance accountability for achieving coherent policy outcomes.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, June 2026

Retail prices of maize stagnated in the Southern and Central Regions. The continued arrival of newly harvested maize drove price declines in the Northern Region, reflecting its later harvest season compared with the rest of the country. Continued maize imports of maize from Mozambique and Zambia also helped keep Malawian prices down.

Uncovering the climate vulnerability of China’s poverty alleviation frontiers

Women’s experiences of the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetable intake: Insights from northern Tanzania

This analysis examined associations between factors in the food environment and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake among women living in rural Northern Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data from 2597 women and 1275 food sources. Women’s self-reported factors included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. We also measured women’s access to F&V sources using geospatial measures of distance and time from home to the reported typical sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of indicators of women’s experience and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates. On average, 5% and 35% of women reported buying F&V daily, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources were 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources were 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and variety of F&V intake. Women’s perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake.Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s frequency and variety of F&V intake, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania: Foreword

Improving diets can improve nutrition and health outcomes. In this supplement, evidence from five low-and-middle-income countries on the country specific dietary (including F&V) intake patterns, nutrition issues and evaluated solutions to improve diets across population groups is presented. Based on this evidence, the final paper offers perspectives and future priorities.

Perceived challenges and solutions to adopting healthy diets among women and children: A photovoice study in urban Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of undernutrition among children under five (U5) and women of reproductive age (WRA) globally, alongside rising overweight/obesity, particularly in urban areas. Poor diet is a shared driver of multiple forms of malnutrition. We used a participatory photography (Photovoice) approach to explore the lived experiences of WRA and their children U5 in adopting healthy diets across lower- and higher- socio-economic status (SES) groups in Addis Ababa. Women took photographs illustrating challenges to healthy diets, and five focus groups (n = 31 women) were conducted to discuss challenges and solutions, with separate sessions held for different SES groups. A hybrid thematic analysis, combining deductive and inductive approaches, identified themes/subthemes, with comparisons across SES groups. Financial and physical barriers to accessing healthy foods, time constraints and perceived poor food safety were major contributors to poor diets. In lower SES groups, women also reported limited knowledge about healthy diets, inadequate family support and poor home food environments. In higher SES groups, unhealthy food preferences coupled with easy access to and aggressive promotion of unhealthy foods were key challenges. Proposed government-level solutions included job creation, nutrition education, affordable healthy food, investment in household infrastructure, expanded childcare and restrictions on unhealthy food availability and promotion. Societal-level solutions included gender equality, strengthened community-based loan schemes and support for urban agriculture. These findings highlight that women recognise their needs and who should support them, and emphasise the importance of including women’s voices in decision-making processes. Findings also underscore the need for integrated interventions targeting individual, food environment and socio-economic drivers to improve diets among women and children in urban Ethiopia.

Urbanicity and the diets and nutritional status of adolescents and their mothers in Vietnam

Background Urbanization catalyzes significant shifts in diets worldwide, yet its impact on adolescent diets and nutrition is poorly understood. Objectives We examined the association between urbanicity and diets and nutritional status among Vietnamese adolescents and their mothers. Methods We assessed diets using a multipass 24-h recall (15% repeated) and collected anthropometric data from 2861 adolescents and their mothers (n = 2664) in rural, peri-urban and urban areas. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS: total 0–49; healthy: 0–32; unhealthy: 0–17) and risk categories. We estimated usual intakes (National Cancer Institute’s method) and the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) for 11 micronutrients. We compared outcomes across areas using regression models adjusted for school-level clustering. Results GDQS healthy was higher in the urban area (adolescents 7.5, mothers 9.5) than in the rural area (6.6 and 7.7). GDQS unhealthy was comparable across areas (∼11 in adolescents and mothers). Adolescent and maternal diets in the rural area were most likely to fall in the GDQS high-risk category for nutrient inadequacy and non-communicable diseases(23% and 11%). MPA was low across all areas for both adolescents and mothers (≤40%). The prevalence of overweight/obesity was highest in urban areas among adolescents (29%) and similar across areas among mothers (15%–19%). Conclusions Urbanicity was positively associated with healthier diets due to greater healthy food consumption, but also with higher risks of adolescent overweight/obesity. Differences by study area, however, were small and diet healthiness was low across all settings. Innovative school and food environment interventions and policies are needed to promote greater consumption of healthy foods and limit unhealthy food intake among Vietnamese adolescents and their mothers, and to prevent and control rising overweight/obesity.

Changing demographics in Ghana’s agrifood systems and implications for future youth engagement

Agrifood systems (AFS) are central to employment, food security, and economic transformation across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As economies grow, urbanize, and experience changing food demand, AFS increasingly extend beyond farming to include processing and other downstream value chain activities. These transformations create new employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, while reshaping labor markets and livelihoods. Understanding these changes is therefore essential for designing policies that promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and food system resilience. This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains. This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains. The study finds that AFS remains the largest source of employment in Ghana, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total employment. Agriculture continues to employ a substantial share of workers, particularly men and youth, but its relative importance has declined steadily over time. At the same time, employment in nonfarm agrifood system activities – including food manufacturing, trade, transportation, and food services – expanded considerably. These findings suggest that Ghana’s labor market transformation is occurring not through a rapid exit from AFS but through diversification within them as value chains deepen and become more integrated. The analysis also reveals important demographic patterns in AFS employment. Women are more concentrated in agrifood system employment than men and are particularly represented in nonfarm AFS activities such as trade and food-related services. However, women continue to face disadvantages in employment quality, financial inclusion, access to productive assets, and participation in formal employment. Similarly, youth remain highly dependent on AFS for their livelihoods. Although labor force participation among young people is lower and unemployment is higher than among mature workers, AFS – particularly farming – continues to provide employment for a large share of young people. These findings underscore the importance of AFS as a source of economic inclusion while highlighting the persistent barriers that women and youth continue to face. Although the available data do not permit separate analysis of young women as a distinct population group, the combined evidence from this study and the broader literature suggests that they are likely to benefit substantially from the continued expansion of nonfarm agrifood activities. Food processing, marketing, food services, and other downstream value-chain segments are expanding in Ghana while already employing relatively large shares of women. Strengthening access to finance, productive assets, business development services, skills, and digital technologies can therefore help translate ongoing agrifood transformation into more dignified and fulfilling employment opportunities for young women. Employment outside agrifood systems also expanded during the study period, with the share of non-AFS employment increasing by four percentage points to 34.6 percent in 2017, reflecting Ghana’s gradual structural transformation. Growth in non-AFS employment was stronger among men and mature adults than among women and youth, indicating that opportunities outside agrifood systems have expanded unevenly across population groups. Overall, Ghana exhibits a relatively advanced stage of agrifood system transformation, characterized by declining agricultural employment, expanding nonfarm AFS activities, and gradual growth in non-AFS employment. Continued investments in agrifood value chains, infrastructure, market connectivity, access to finance, and entrepreneurship support will be essential to ensure that this transformation generates productive, inclusive, and resilient employment, particularly for women and young people.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Globally, 75% of adolescents do not meet recommendations for fruits and vegetables (F&V) consumption. This study investigated drivers of F&V choices among adolescents in Benin and identified barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption. We conducted 16 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 126 adolescents and 5 semi-structured school observations in December 2024. FGDs were purposively chosen to explore variation by region (north/south), school location (urban/rural), adolescent age (12 to 15 years/16-18 years) and gender (boys/girls). Inductive and deductive thematic content analysis was performed using Atlas.ti. Findings showed that adolescents perceived a healthy diet as one composed of meals providing nutrients and strength, and including F&V. At home, adolescents mentioned eating staples and other vegetables more than other food groups. The foods adolescents reported typically eating at school varied by age, gender, and location. The primary categories of factors that influenced adolescent F&V choices were: intrapersonal (knowledge related to healthy eating and the nutrition and health benefits of F&V, taste preferences, and health prioritisation), socio-cultural (family and peer influences), and food environment (low availability, low affordability, convenience, and desirability). DFC factors were consistent across adolescent age, gender, and location. Multiple, dynamic, and multilevel factors influence adolescent F&V choices. Interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers and involve family and peers are likely to be more successful in promoting F&V consumption and healthy diets than interventions only addressing individual barriers.

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season. Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing. Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season. Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country’s main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need. Recommended Actions: Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors. Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases. Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Regional integration, resilience, and innovation

Regional integration has become a strategic objective for Africa in an era marked by global tensions, climate vulnerability, and persistent structural transformation challenges. Despite decades of regional trade agreements, intra-African trade remains limited and concentrated in a narrow range of products, reflecting shallow productive integration and high trade costs. These constraints are particularly present in agriculture, which employs nearly 60% of Africa’s labor force and plays a central role in food security, income generation, and poverty reduction (Mamboundou et al. 2026). The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a structural shift toward continent-wide deep integration, with the potential to expand intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains, and enhance economic resilience. At the same time, digital innovation and climate imperatives are reshaping the policy landscape, creating both opportunities and adjustment pressures. This chapter examines the interconnections between regional integration, resilience, and innovation in Africa, assessing the evolution and performance of regional trade integration, evaluating the projected impacts of AfCFTA implementation, and analyzing the roles of digitalization and climate-smart trade pathways in supporting inclusive and sustainable transformation. In the context of the post-MC14, the chapter contributes to ongoing debates on how regional integration can complement multilateral reform, particularly in agriculture, digital trade governance, and climate-related trade measures.

Final remarks [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade is at a crossroads. The global agricultural trading system is undergoing a transformation and, as this book has argued, the changes observed in recent years are not temporary disruptions but reflect a deeper structural shift. The system has moved away from a relatively predictable, rules-based environment toward a more fragmented setting, where trade outcomes are increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental disruptions, evolving policy instruments, and persistent structural asymmetries across countries. The erosion of predictability, the proliferating use of selective and non-MFN measures, the interaction between trade and broader geopolitical objectives, and the growing role of supply chains and logistics are redefining how agricultural trade operates.

LAC’s role in global food security and the multilateral system

This chapter argues that LAC’s contribution to global food security cannot be understood in isolation from broader debates on trade governance and multilateral cooperation. As climate pressures, geopolitical fragmentation, and market volatility increasingly intersect, the credibility of the rules-based trading system becomes a central determinant of global supply stability. In this context, LAC occupies a relevant position at the intersection of production capacity and global governance: as a major net exporter, it enhances international availability and moderates price volatility, thereby supporting affordability in food-deficit regions; yet, paradoxically, significant segments of its own population—particularly in parts of Central America and the Caribbean—still face constraints in affording a healthy diet (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2025.). This dual condition underscores that food security is multidimensional, linking availability, access, and stability. By leveraging its comparative advantages while engaging constructively in WTO-centered trade governance reform—strengthening disciplines on export restrictions, transparency, and dispute settlement—the region can safeguard its export interests and perform a structural, system-wide balancing role in promoting a more resilient, predictable, and affordable global food system.

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade lies at the heart of development, food security, and sustainability. Over the past several decades, global trade in agricultural products has grown both in volume and complexity. Trade has supported structural transformation, expanded food access, and increased incomes across regions. But in recent years, this system has become increasingly strained. Rising geopolitical tensions, recurring global shocks, and a growing disconnect between trade rules and sustainability goals have left the global trading system at a crossroads. This book is the fourth in a series of concise, policy-focused publications aimed at supporting agricultural trade reform and food systems transformation. The first volume, titled Transforming Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities, examined how shifting climate, social, and economic pressures were reshaping the region’s food systems. The second, Food Systems at a Crossroads, explored the political economy of food and agriculture in Latin America, identifying core trade-offs and opportunities for policy innovation. The third volume, The Road to MC12, provided timely analysis ahead of the 12th World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Ministerial to highlight risks of fragmentation and Latin America’s potential to contribute to a reinvigorated multilateral system. This fourth edition expands the conversation to include Africa, a region with growing importance in global agricultural trade debates. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa face distinct realities, but they also share vulnerabilities and strategic interests. Both regions have significant agricultural potential, are highly exposed to trade-related shocks, and are seeking a fairer, more inclusive trade regime. This book aims to deepen understanding of how these regions are navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape and how they can contribute to shaping the future of agricultural trade.

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation. Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.

Innovation, sustainability and the new frontier of competitiveness in the agrifood sector

The global agricultural trade landscape is experiencing a structural transition. The longstanding emphasis on volume and price is increasingly being complemented—and in some cases replaced—by value-based considerations, whereby production processes – “how” products are produced-carry weight comparable to production outputs – “what” product is produced. This evolution reflects the growing integration of sustainability, traceability, and environmental performance criteria into global value chains and market access conditions (World Bank, 2024; OECD, 2023). For Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a major contributor to global net agrifood exports, this shift represents both a challenge and an opportunity to consolidate its role as a sustainable food supplier (OECD-FAO, 2024).

State of the agricultural negotiations and prospects for progress at MC14

Agricultural negotiations have largely been stalemated since the collapse of the Doha Round in July 2008. Members have struggled to fulfil in its entirety the mandate set out in Article 20 of the Agreement on Agreement (AOA), as well as other relevant Ministerial mandates. With the exception of a few outcomes, including those on Public Stockholding and the administration of Tariff Rate Quotas at the Ninth Ministerial Conference (MC9) in Bali in 2013, on Export Competition at MC10 in Nairobi in 2015, and on export restrictions for food aid in MC12 in Geneva, there has not been any substantive outcome in the agriculture negotiations since they were launched in 2000. The prospects for a substantive outcome at MC14 in Yaoundé remained limited, as sharp divisions persisted among Members on several critical issues, while recent trade actions have added further strain to the multilateral trading system and risk undermining progress achieved over the past three decades. I begin by reviewing progress in the so-called pillars of the AOA: domestic support, market access, and export competition. I then consider the areas of contention during the Doha Round negotiations, specifically the special safeguard mechanism (SSM), cotton, public stockholding (PSH), and export restrictions. I conclude with a broad assessment of the chances for meaningful progress and discuss some potential avenues beyond Yaoundé.

Agricultural trade structure, disruptions, and competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has a central position in global agricultural trade, both as a major exporter of staple commodities and as a region increasingly exposed to shifts in global demand, trade policy, and geopolitical fragmentation. Recent developments show that agrifood trade is no longer shaped primarily by gradual liberalization or isolated tariff disputes. Instead, it is being reshaped by a more complex environment in which higher tariffs coexist with selective application, exemptions, and preferential treatment. A key insight emerging from recent trade shocks is that markets can adjust, but adjustment increasingly takes place through the reallocation of trade flows rather than through smooth prices or production responses. This has important implications for LAC, where trade is often concentrated around a limited number of products and destinations. As adjustment costs rise, outcomes depend less on aggregate performance and more on structural characteristics such as diversification, bargaining power, and institutional capacity. Against this backdrop, the chapter situates LAC’s experience within the broader global debate, emphasizing the need to align national and regional strategies with a changing global trade landscape.

The WTO from a Latin American and Caribbean perspective: Why rules still matter

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) occupies a distinctive position in the global agri-food system. The region combines highly competitive agricultural exporters, systemic actors of considerable weight such as Mexico and Brazil, and small Caribbean Island economies that are structurally dependent on food imports. This internal diversity is central to understanding the continued importance of multilateral rules for the region’s economic stability (World Bank 2020; FAO 2023).

Evolving trade instruments in a fragmented system

The global landscape for agricultural trade is going through deep transformations. In the face of persistent blockage in multilateral negotiations, growing geopolitical tensions, and national security considerations, governments are exploring alternative forms of cooperation. Alongside traditional bilateral and regional trade agreements, new collaborative arrangements are emerging in the form of plurilateral or sectoral approaches, informal coalitions, soft law initiatives, or agreed principles to deepen economic integration or advance specific trade agendas among like-minded partners. While these initiatives provide a space to test new ideas and approaches, which could inform future models of trade cooperation, they also contribute to growing fragmentation in the global agricultural trading system.

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond

At the creation of the multilateral trading system in 1948, agriculture was formally covered by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), including principles such as tariff bindings and non-discrimination. In practice, however, agriculture remained largely exempt from strict multilateral disciplines, as governments maintained wide policy space to support domestic farm sectors through subsidies, price controls, and non-tariff measures. This flexibility largely reflected the concerns of major agricultural economies, while developing countries, including many in Africa, remained primarily exporters of primary commodities with limited influence over global rule-making.

Africa’s agricultural trade performance and structural barriers

Africa’s agricultural trade has been characterized by a persistent trade balance deficit over the past decade, with import bills consistently outpacing export revenues. With the world’s fastest growing population and weak domestic food systems, imports of agrifood products are increasing rapidly, raising the dependence of the continent on external markets and its exposure to global food price volatility. This vulnerability is compounded by the limited diversification of exports, which remain concentrated in a narrow range of primary commodities subject to significant price fluctuations, thereby contributing to macroeconomic instability. At the same time, continent-wide initiatives such as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to address these structural challenges. Both frameworks seek to strengthen agrifood systems, enhance productive capacities, promote value addition, and better align agricultural production with domestic and regional demand, ultimately contributing to more stable and resilient food markets. In this context, expanding intra-African trade can provide significant benefits. Greater regional integration can stimulate economic growth through wider market access, foster regional value chains, and improve food security by enhancing the availability and affordability of food across borders. However, despite broad consensus on these potential benefits, the actual level and trajectory of intra-African agricultural trade remain subject to debate, partly due to data limitations and differences in measurement approaches. This chapter, therefore, provides a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s agricultural trade performance over the past decade, examining both structural trends and persistent barriers that constrain diversification, competitiveness, and deeper regional integration.

China’s agrifood system: Structure and transformation, 2012–2023

This study analyzes the historical performance, evolutionary trends, and future opportunities and challenges of China’s agrifood system (AFS) from 2012 to 2023. By constructing multi-year social accounting matrices (SAMs), the study quantifies the economic scale and structural characteristics of the AFS, as well as its historical contribution to broader economic transformation and growth. Utilizing the China Agrifood System Model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of productivity enhancements across different value chains in promoting multidimensional development goals, such as GDP growth, job creation, and poverty eradication. The findings indicate that the transformation of the AFS is a core component of China’s economic transformation. Although the AFS’s share of the national economy has declined during industrialization, its contribution to inclusive economic transformation remains substantial. This continued importance is closely linked to profound structural shifts within the sector, as value creation has increasingly moved from primary production toward downstream segments such as processing, trade, and food services. General equilibrium simulations indicate that some agricultural sectors, including maize, vegetables, and fisheries, generate strong multiplier effects on non-agricultural employment, helping to absorb labor and alleviate transition pressures. The study concludes that continuously optimizing the internal structure of the AFS and strengthening integrated value chain synergies are critical pathways for addressing future resource and environmental constraints while achieving sustainable and inclusive development.

Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14

The book Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post‑MC14 examines how global agricultural trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, limited progress with multilateral negotiations, and evolving economic priorities. It analyzes how these changes affect developing regions especially Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa highlighting challenges such as trade fragmentation, food security concerns, and structural barriers, while also exploring opportunities for competitiveness, regional integration, and innovation.

Large language models as measurement instruments in applied economics: A 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa, 2010–2025

Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used in applied economics to convert unstructured text into structured empirical measures. This paper examines their use as measurement instruments through a 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa from 2010 to 2025. The panel covers Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, and contains 206 document-level records drawn from public early-warning, humanitarian, government, and technical sources. Each record is organized by country, date, source type, geography, benchmark type, benchmark phase where available, leakage risk, and a set of generated coding variables describing food-security dimension, text severity, narrative frame, tone, attribution, and evidence type. The paper treats LLM-coded outputs not as ground truth, but as generated variables subject to measurement error, source-selection bias, benchmark leakage, and uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven source text. A conservative validation sample is limited to records with completed source-grounded excerpts, while an exploratory validation sample uses the broader metadata-supported corpus to examine phase coverage across benchmark categories. The results illustrate both the promise and the limits of LLM-assisted public-discourse measurement. Public documents can be transformed into transparent, auditable indicators of food-security stress, but their validity depends on document sampling, excerpt quality, benchmark independence, source diversity, and careful distinction between technical classifications and independent discourse. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on LLMs in economics by shifting attention from general productivity uses toward the practical conditions under which LLM-assisted text measurement can support applied research and policy analysis. A reproducibility package accompanies the study and includes the coded data, validation samples, codebook, data dictionary, AI-use disclosure, leakage documentation, and scripts for reproducing the descriptive results.

Agricultural credit and conflict: Evidence from Myanmar

Access to timely credit is widely viewed as an important determinant of improved agricultural investment and productivity. However, little is known about how agricultural credit markets function during prolonged conflict. This paper examines how conflict shapes both the receipt of agricultural credit and the provision of informal credit by agrifood businesses in Myanmar, where conflict has been widespread in after 2021. Using rare data from both farmers and firms, we document a substantial decline in formal credit after conflict, but stable receipt of informal credit. In conflict-affected areas, formal credit receipt declined sharply – most notably from government-supported schemes and from microfinance institutions – while informal credit was more resilient – especially from friends and family and agribusinesses. Using direct elicitation methods of credit constraint classifications, we show that farmers in high conflict areas are more likely to voluntarily withdraw from credit markets and shift to self-financing. On the supply side, conflict has insignificant relationships to farm-credit provision by input retailers and rice mills. Taken together, our findings highlight the informal segment of agricultural credit markets as an underappreciated source of resilience in conflict-affected settings.

2026 Sudan conflict conference: Three years of conflict in Sudan: What the evidence tells us and what recovery requires – Conference proceedings

The 2026 Sudan Conflict Conference, organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Cairo and held on 14 and 15 April, brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners to discuss the impacts of Sudan’s protracted conflict on the nation’s economy and agrifood systems and to identify evidence‑based pathways for recovery. This proceedings report documents the key evidence, discussions, and policy insights generated during the conference, capturing technical research, operational perspectives, and contextual nuances. Three years into the crisis, Sudan faces a systemic breakdown affecting agricultural production, markets, institutions, and human capital, leaving more than half of the population in need of humanitarian assistance. Evidence presented during the conference highlighted severe disruptions to agrifood systems and increasingly fragmented markets, with food insecurity driven primarily by affordability and accessibility constraints. While firms and households have shown adaptive capacity, these responses to the conflict remain constrained and often rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including asset depletion and reduced investment. Displacement continues to deepen vulnerability but also offers the potential for increased economic integration supported by inclusive approaches, while the erosion of health and education systems poses serious long‑term risks to human capital and growth. Across the conference sessions, a clear consensus emerged on the need for integrated, system‑wide responses that link humanitarian assistance with recovery and development interventions. Agriculture and market systems were identified as critical entry points, while cash assistance is most effective when combined with livelihood and market support. Moving forward, the recovery of the nation’s economy and agrifood systems coming out of the conflict will require coordinated strategies to restore markets, rebuild livelihoods, invest in human capital, and strengthen data‑driven decision-making, supported by sustained international engagement and locally grounded approaches.

Fish consumption in Hadramawt: Insights from household survey data

A new representative consumption survey of 1,600 households in Hadramawt Governorate, Yemen, reveals the following key findings: Fish is the primary animal-source food in Hadramawt, as 96% of households report consuming it in the past seven days, compared with 58% that report consuming poultry and 6% that report consuming meat in this period. Inland households consume 13 kg of fish per capita per year, while coastal households consume 29 kg per capita per year, which is 40% more than the global average of 20.7 kg per capita. Fish consumption is four times higher than meat consumption overall, and more than 10 times higher than meat consumption in coastal areas. Inland households predominantly consume large and small tuna species, whereas coastal households rely on small tuna and lower-value species such as small pelagic fish. Fresh fish is the most affordable animal-source food in coastal and inland areas. However, prices for kawakawa, the most consumed fresh fish, are two times higher inland than on the coast. 61% and 43% of inland households report consuming processed (i.e., salted, dried, smoked) and canned fish, respectively, while households in coastal areas predominantly consume fresh fish only. Only 2% of fish is purchased frozen. With its vast coastline, Yemen has the potential to provide significant quantities of fish, a nutrient-dense food, for its people. However, recent data on how much fish is consumed in Yemen, and Hadramawt as the main fishing governorate, is sparse. Namely, relying on consumption data from Yemen’s 2005–2006 Household Budget Survey, Ecker et al. (2010) estimated that average fish consumption per capita in Hadramawt was 17.8 kg/year. More recently, a study by Dey et al. (2026) showed that 43% of respondents in Hadramawt, and more than 60% in some inland districts, had consumed fish within the past 24 hours, which was more frequent than consumption of other animal-source foods. Both studies underscored the importance of fish as one of the main protein sources across Hadramawt. However, a scoping review by Belton et al. (2026) identified significant research gaps in terms of quantity, frequency, geographical distribution, and the species and product forms eaten. Thus, a survey of a statistically representative sample of the population was needed to better understand fish consumption patterns in this governorate. We surveyed 1,600 households in Hadramawt, across 40 locations in four distinct geographic areas (10 locations per area): inland rural, inland urban, coastal rural, and coastal urban. This approach ensured inclusion of households with different socioeconomic status and livelihoods, as well as different access to markets and fisheries. We used a quasi-random sampling approach1 to identify 40 eligible households in each of the 40 selected locations. Interviews were conducted in October 2025 during the fishing season. The survey collected information on household demographic characteristics and consumption of fish and other animal-source foods, including the type, species, quantity, frequency, price, and source of food products during the seven days preceding the data collection. In this project note, we examine the main consumption patterns for fish, meat, and poultry across Hadramawt. We also estimate the associations between per capita fish consumption and expenditure and household characteristics, including households’ geographic location.

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

Rice prices remained relatively stable in May 2026, increasing modestly by 2.2 percent year-on-year and 1.6 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses price remained broadly stable, supported by continued demand from India and increased purchasing by traders and wholesalers. In contrast, maize prices continued to rise, driven by strong export demand ahead of the June closure of Thailand’s duty-free import window1 and improving cross-border trade opportunities. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Garlic prices continued to increase due to lower domestic production and reduced imported supply, while onion and chili prices recorded modest declines. Potato prices continued to fall amid increased inflows of lower-priced Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than a year ago, led by mutton, beef, and fish. However, month-on-month price movements were generally modest, indicating stable market conditions across most livestock and fish products. The Iran conflict and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil and fertilizer trade. In Myanmar, fuel and urea fertilizer prices remain well above year-earlier levels — even as diesel prices moderated from their April peaks — eroding fertilizer profitability and prompting some farmers to cultivate smaller areas or reduce plowings. If sustained, these conditions point to lower monsoon-season agricultural production. Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in Myanmar.

An agentic AI assistant for country-level economic modeling: Methods, data, and expert evaluation

The demand for high-quality, rapid economic analysis to navigate complex issues faced by many low- and middle-income countries has led to the development of detailed structural simulation models, such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Policy analysis with such models requires deep knowledge of their structure and applicability to the policy issues at hand. Policymakers in these settings often lack access to the expertise required for articulating, analyzing, and interpreting the relevant causal chains captured by the models. Attempting to circumvent these barriers by submitting complex economic questions directly to off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) introduces severe analytical risks, including hallucinations and insufficient expert guidance. To resolve this limitation, we developed and empirically evaluated an agentic AI assistant called RIAPA-AI that integrates LLMs with a CGE model. We evaluated the performance of RIAPA-AI against expert human CGE modelers and a general-purpose plain LLM baseline across samples of complex economic scenarios, utilizing an independent panel of senior economists to grade the outputs. Our statistical analysis reveals no statistically significant difference in analytical accuracy between RIAPA-AI and human experts, while the AI accelerates reproducible policy analysis from weeks to minutes. Furthermore, by operating without manual processing limits, RIAPA-AI eliminates the 6.7% error rate observed among human modelers. Conversely, the general-purpose plain LLM exhibits profound failure rates, failing to achieve policy-ready scores in over 60% of depth evaluations. Without an underlying CGE model acting as a bounding force to reflect economic structural constraints, the general-purpose plain LLM defaults to linear economic assumptions and inserts unmodeled socio-political narratives. Crucially, by explicitly restricting the AI’s narrative interpretation solely to deterministic numerical outputs, RIAPA-AI mitigates the risk of unverified assumptions and logic hallucinations. We conclude that by deploying an agentic AI assistant that layers a generative AI over a formal CGE model, RIAPA-AI successfully delivers sensible, rigorous, and rapid policy analysis.

Land tenure security, crop choices, and agricultural input investment decisions: Evidence from nationally representative data in Nigeria

Land tenure security is widely regarded as essential for agricultural investment and productivity growth. However, causal evidence on its effects across multiple farm decisions remains limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates how tenure security is associated with crop portfolio choices and input investment decisions among smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. It measures tenure security using a composite index, drawn from wave 5 of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), that captures plot-level perceived security of ownership, and household reported risk of land loss, ownership security, and duration of ownership. The study employs two complementary approaches: a multivariate probit model to capture the joint and correlated nature of crop adoption decisions, and limited information maximum likelihood instrumental variables (LIML-IV) estimation to establish association between land tenure and input investment decisions. Results reveal significant but heterogeneous effects. Greater tenure security increases the probability of cultivating grains and cereals by 29.8 percentage points, while reducing the likelihood of growing legumes and pulses by 24.6 percentage points and horticulture by 11.4 percentage points respectively, which suggests a substitution effect toward grain specialization. On input investments, LIML-IV estimates indicate that a one-unit increase in the tenure security index raises organic fertilizer use by 9.93 percent, inorganic fertilizer use by 6.57 percent, and pesticide use by approximately 0.89 percent. These findings are robust to Lewbel’s heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger investment effects among youth-headed households, while impacts on female-managed plots are statistically insignificant, pointing to persistent gender barriers. The study highlights the need for integrated policies that combine tenure formalization with crop diversification support, gender- and youth-sensitive land governance, and input market development in order to maximize the productivity gains from land rights reform in Nigeria.

Genetic technologies to enhance crop nutritional value under climate change

Rice establishment methods in Myanmar: Trends, perceptions, and constraints

Key Findings: Direct-seeded rice (DSR) is widely adopted in Myanmar rice production, used by around 50 percent of farmers during the monsoon season and about 75 percent during the dry season, accounting for the majority of cultivated rice area. Rice establishment methods remained relatively stable from 2023–2025 despite political instability, market disruptions, labor shortages, and price volatility. DSR adoption is higher among larger farms and non-irrigated farms, indicating that labor and water constraints strongly influence establishment choices. Broadcasting is the dominant DSR method, particularly dry broadcasting, while row planting remains uncommon. Most farmers believe puddled-transplanted rice (PTR) produces higher yields than DSR, with an average perceived yield advantage of about 11 baskets per acre. Farmers overwhelmingly perceive PTR as more labor-intensive, while differences in fertilizer and pesticide use are viewed as relatively small or mixed. Labor shortages and water constraints are the primary reasons for adopting DSR, not perceptions of lower profitability or lower yields under PTR. Recommended Actions: Strengthen investments in irrigation and water management systems to reduce water-related constraints and enable farmers to choose establishment methods based on productivity rather than necessity. Address rural labor shortages through mechanization support, labor-saving technologies, and improved access to agricultural services. Develop and disseminate best management practices for DSR, particularly for weed control, seed establishment, and water management to improve productivity and profitability. Conduct rigorous research on the economic returns of DSR and PTR across different agro-ecological zones, farm sizes, and irrigation conditions.

The potential of solar-powered irrigation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from irrigation water pumping in Kenya

This policy note presents the main findings from an IFPRI forecasting analysis that quantifies the potential for reducing GHG emissions through the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems in Kenya. The study focuses specifically on groundwater irrigation systems, where energy consumption for water pumping is typically concentrated.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2026

Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report

Vegetable intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

Adequate intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is fundamental to meeting micronutrient requirements, reducing the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, and supporting overall health and well-being. The World Health Organization recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of F&V, whereas the Tanzania Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) advise a daily intake of approximately 280 g each of fruit and vegetables to promote healthy living. Intake of F&V in Tanzania and many other low- and middle-income countries, however, remains substantially below recommended levels. In sub-Saharan Africa, diets are frequently dominated by staple cereals and tubers, with limited dietary diversity and low intake of nutrient-dense foods, including F&V. In Tanzania, women of reproductive age (WRA) are at high risk of micronutrient deficiencies, including iron, folate, vitamins A, C and B12. These inadequacies impair immune function, increase susceptibility to infection, and contribute to iron-deficiency anaemia, fatigue, and reduced productivity. During pregnancy, poor micronutrient status elevates the risk of maternal morbidity, preterm birth, low birth weight, and impaired fetal growth. During lactation, inadequate status may reduce the micronutrient content of breast milk, potentially compromising infant growth and immune function.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya

Food losses are a major constraint to agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across value chains remains limited. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya, drawing on purposefully collected data from producers, aggregators and processors. Using a consistent, multidimensional measurement framework, the study captures both quantitative (physical) and qualitative (degradation) losses across production and postharvest stages. The results indicate that potato losses are widespread and occur throughout the value chain, with the largest share concentrated at the producer level. Preharvest losses and on-farm postharvest losses account for a substantial proportion (23.5 percent) of total losses, reflecting the combined effects of pest and disease pressures, weather-related shocks, and suboptimal management practices. Nationally, producer-level potato losses could amount to KSh 14.5 billion annually, equivalent to the annual per capita income of about 50,000 Kenyans. While producer-level losses dominate, descriptive evidence shows that potato aggregators and processors also incur nonnegligible losses, particularly during storage, transportation, and handling. These losses are commonly associated with spillage, mechanical damage, inadequate storage conditions, and poor handling practices, highlighting inefficiencies beyond the farm gate. Econometric results reveal that loss patterns vary across producers and production environments. Differences in demographic characteristics, farm size, labor availability, and market orientation contribute to heterogeneity in both the likelihood and intensity of losses. These results further demonstrate that asset ownership, management practices, and exposure to production risks are key determinants of loss outcomes. Greater household assets and labor availability are associated with reduced loss incidence and intensity, while exposure to biotic and abiotic stressors – captured through a composite index – significantly increases both the probability and severity of preharvest losses. Input use and management practices also play an important role. The application of chemical fertilizers is associated with reduced loss intensity, consistent with improved crop vigor and resilience, while the use of pest control is positively correlated with loss occurrence, likely reflecting reactive application following infestation. The adoption of improved seed varieties increases the likelihood of losses but reduces the intensity of them, which is a nuanced finding that suggests both greater exposure and improved resilience conditional on damage. Access to training and third-party agricultural service is associated with lower losses, underscoring the importance of knowledge and advisory support. This area also presents opportunities for youth, particularly young women, to engage in agrifood-system service provision through activities such as advisory services, quality management, aggregation, and postharvest handling, which can simultaneously reduce losses and generate income. Importantly, the analysis reveals strong linkages between preharvest and postharvest losses. Higher preharvest losses are associated with both increased likelihood and greater severity of postharvest losses, indicating that damage incurred during production propagates along the value chain. Overall, potato losses in Kenya are systemic but largely preventable through improved handling, storage, market infrastructure, and farmer capacity. Although youth sample sizes in this study are too small to quantify specific effects, the data highlight clear entry points for engaging youth, particularly young women, in reducing post-harvest losses. For instance, there are opportunities for involving youths in services offered at the production stage, which include sorting, curing, and transportation.

India’s national maternity benefit cash transfer program and child anthropometry

This study evaluates the impact of India’s Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), the world’s largest rights-based conditional cash transfer (CCT) program targeting women during their first pregnancy. Using National Family Health Survey data from 2005 to 2021, we assess changes in growth in a nationally representative sample of children, before and after program implementation. To address potential biases, we employ a quasi-experimental approach with a Propensity Scores Matched Difference in Differences analysis. We find that potential exposure to the program is associated with moderate improvements (0.10 SD) in height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores. These effects likely operate through increased uptake of health interventions and consumption of certain food groups. The study underscores persistent barriers to program access and finds that women from higher socio-economic strata have entered the CCT beneficiary pool since 2017, suggesting a need for more equitable program targeting.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Gender asset-ownership gap, women’s agency, and its implications for household inequality: Evidence from Nigeria

he gender asset-ownership gap remains a persistent barrier to inclusive economic growth. While women contribute significantly to agricultural production and household welfare, they continue to face constraints in accessing and controlling productive assets such as land and non-land resources. Using nationally representative panel data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) waves 4 and 5, this study examines the role of women’s productive asset ownership and empowerment in shaping household income inequality in rural Nigeria. Descriptive evidence shows persistently high intrahousehold inequality, with intrahousehold Gini coefficients averaging approximately 0.70 across survey rounds, despite a modest decline between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Regional patterns reveal particularly pronounced inequality in the North East, where income distributions are heavily skewed and most households exhibit extreme intrahousehold disparities. Employing fixed effects regressions and Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, the analysis yields three key findings. First, women’s land share is associated with reduced intrahousehold income inequality, but this effect is modest and conditional. It becomes meaningful primarily in households where women control more than half of total household farmland, suggesting that small and fragmented landholdings offer limited inequality-reducing potential on their own. Women’s control over income and participation in agricultural decision-making emerge as additional and consistently significant drivers of reduced intrahousehold inequality. Second, women’s land share has a significant and positive effect on women’s income share, with a 10 percentage point increase in female-managed farmland associated with approximately a 0.76 percentage point increase in women’s share of household income; women’s income control and agricultural decision-making further amplify this effect. Third, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that households where women own productive assets have significantly lower intrahousehold inequality and higher women’s income shares than those where no woman owns an asset, with differences driven primarily by disparities in women’s income control and decision-making authority rather than asset ownership alone. This shifts the policy debate from simply closing gender asset gaps to ensuring women’s assets are productive and consolidated with genuine economic agency.

The early bird gets the cash: Early notification and conditional cash transfers for secondary school

What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample.

Gender, disability, and welfare in Myanmar

This working paper examines household welfare among women-adult-only households and households with a disabled/chronically ill member using Myanmar Household Welfare Surveys from April 2022 to July 2025. It analyzes their demographic characteristics, income composition, and levels of asset and income poverty. The paper’s main contribution is assessing key food security indicators for these vulnerable households, including Minimum Dietary Diversity, the Food Consumption Score, and the Household Hunger Score. Women-adult-only households, defined as households without any male members aged 15 or older, account for 9 percent of households nationally, or 13 percent when including households with elderly male dependents. Fourteen percent of households have a disabled or chronically ill member, and 10 percent have a disabled or chronically ill adult. Women-adult-only and disability-affected households have higher asset poverty rates than the national average. Women-adult-only households have similar income poverty levels compared with the national average, while 71 percent of households with a disabled/chronically ill member are income poor, compared to 63 percent nationally. Remittance receipt among women-adult-only households decreases income poverty for the group; more women-adult-only households receive remittances (33 percent) and rely on remittances (24 percent) as their main income source. Women-adult-only and disability-affected households perform worse across all dietary indicators. Women-adult-only households show, on average, 4 percentage points higher prevalence of low food consumption across survey rounds, while households with a disabled/chronically ill adult have a 3percentage-point higher prevalence. Moderate or severe hunger is also higher among women-adultonly households (6 percent) and households with a disabled/chronically ill adult (7 percent), compared with the national average of 4 percent. Households with a disabled/chronically ill adult are significantly more likely to rely on negative food-related coping strategies—including borrowing food, reducing meals, and skipping meals— highlighting their heightened vulnerability relative to other households. Regression results highlight that women-adult-only households face elevated hunger because of their structural economic disadvantages —fewer different income sources, weaker land ownership, and lower asset holdings — rather than the absence of adult men per se. Low food consumption, however, remains significantly lower for women-adult-only households even after fully controlling for these structural factors. This likely reflects the severe time constraints of households where all productive, care, and domestic tasks fall on adult women alone. For households with a disabled or chronically ill adult hunger persists across all specifications regardless of income, land, or asset controls — pointing to a direct burden that structural economic characteristics cannot explain. These contrasting findings suggest different interventions: structural economic interventions around land and livelihoods for women-adult-only households, and direct consumption support and social protection transfers for households affected by disability.

Soil tests, vouchers, and the limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Fertilizer subsidy programmes dominate agricultural spending in several African countries. Rising and volatile fertilizer prices have renewed concerns about the efficiency of such spending, prompting initiatives to tailor fertilizer recommendations to local soil conditions. We test this premise in Malawi, where the national subsidy programme distributes a standard package of urea and NPK fertilizer. In a cluster-randomized trial involving more than 2,000 households across 113 villages, we assign farmers to (i) a plot-level soil-test recommendation, (ii) the same recommendation combined with a voucher of subsidy-equivalent value, or (iii) a control group. The recommendation alone has no effect on fertilizer use, input choice, or maize yields. When paired with a voucher, fertilizer use and maize yields increase substantially, with yields rising by roughly one-third; at the maize prices prevailing in our study area, however, the value of this additional production falls short of the face value of the voucher, let alone the value of the voucher plus the cost of individualized soil test. For farmers themselves the package is nonetheless profitable, since the voucher largely displaces fertilizer they would have bought anyway and so lowers their own input spending, and because many households are net maize buyers, valuing the additional output at retail rather than farmgate prices narrows the shortfall. The yield gains do not reflect adoption of site-specific prescriptions: voucher recipients predominantly purchase urea and NPK in proportions closely matching the standard subsidy bundle, regardless of what their soil test recommends, and compliance with recommended alternatives such as potassium, lime, or calcium ammonium nitrate is negligible. Because the observed gains come almost entirely from nitrogen intensification while phosphorus, potassium, and lime gaps remain uncorrected, the measured yield response is a lower bound on what full-compliance fertilization could deliver. Relaxing financial constraints thus increases input use and productivity, but information alone does not redirect behaviour toward precision fertilization. Effective subsidy reform will require addressing broader supply- and demand-side constraints, including input availability, farmer familiarity with recommended products, and the practical implementation of site-specific recommendations, not only improving agronomic information.

Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions for Food Systems and Women’s Empowerment (RENEW)

The Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions for Food Systems and Women’s Empowerment (RENEW) initiative develops scalable, investment-ready models for climate-resilient water and land management in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) under the CGIAR Food Frontiers and Security Program, RENEW works in Bangladesh, Nigeria and Sudan to strengthen water security, livelihoods and social cohesion. By combining resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS), inclusive governance, women and youth empowerment, and evidence-based scaling pathways, the initiative supports locally led adaptation while generating practical insights for governments, donors and development partners to scale conflict-sensitive and climate-resilient interventions.

When quality (doesn’t) pay: Evidence from two experiments in Uganda

Quality in agri-food supply chains is often unobservable at first sale and early aggregation limits traceability, weakening incentives for quality provision. We study whether making milk quality visible and traceable creates a market for quality in Uganda’s dairy sector. Increasing observability reduces adulteration and improves quality, but no premium emerges. In a follow-up experiment, we introduce trader quality premiums. This increases quality when binding, yet informed intermediaries capture the gains and farm-gate prices do not rise. Observability is necessary but insufficient: without downstream demand for quality and pass-through by intermediaries, incentives for quality upgrading remain weak.

Climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation options for Uzbekistan

Climate change is likely to reshape agriculture in an irrigated, water-scarce transition economy like Uzbekistan. We use IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model and evaluate the direct effects of climate change on Uzbekistan’s agriculture through 2050. We assume changes in GDP, population, and technological progress to be exogenous. We find that climate change and the corresponding temperature increase will have significant adverse effects on the long-term yields of cotton and wheat through changes in water availability, precipitation patterns, crop yields, and the use of land, water, and other natural resources, but harvested area responses may differ. All climate change scenarios are similar in predicting an increase in harvested area for temperate fruits and vegetables, but their yield gains remain conditional on market prices, policy reform, water use and institutional constraints. For policymakers, this makes climate change adaptation actions an opportunity for incentives and structural reforms as well as for technology to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to ensure food security.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low- and middle-income countries are under increasing fiscal pressure to rationalize spending on fertilizer subsidy programs. Policy reforms shifting expenditure away from subsidies can have beneficial impacts given the well-documented distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities of fertilizer subsidies. However, such reforms also result in losses and often lower fertilizer use for current beneficiaries. Understanding who is impacted by reform thus requires an assessment of who is currently benefiting, yet there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both on paper and in practice. In this paper, we identify low- and middle- income countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are designed as universal, in many countries there are implicit targeting criteria embedded in the way subsidy programs are implemented and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, the targeting of subsidy programs is generally pro-poor, driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, May 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by most measures, with lowest prices registered in the Southern Region. Driven by increased domestic supply of newly harvested maize and cheap imports, maize retailed mostly below the government-mandated minimum farmgate price.

From Vision to Action (V2A): Co-development of transition pathways towards enhanced multifunctionality in Mandla landscapes, Madhya Pradesh (India)

Mandla district is situated in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh (seen in figure 1), covers an area of 7226 km2 and is defined by its diverse topography and agricultural significance. The district is situated within the Satpura hill range and the Narmada catchment area. The district comprises 1223 villages with a population of 1.28 million, and is home to several scheduled tribes, particularly the Gond, Baiga, and Oraon communities https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173476. These indigenous groups rely heavily on the commons, forests for Non-Timber Forest Produce (NTFP), and open pastures. The district’s agricultural landscape is marked by the cultivation of key crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. Mandla faces challenges like soil erosion, particularly in ridge areas, prompting the construction of continuous contour bunds and trenches to mitigate its impact. With a total cropped area of 376,780 hectares, the district predominantly cultivates paddy, wheat, and pulses. However, water scarcity looms large despite an annual average rainfall of more than 1300 mm, as the districts undulating topography limits prolonged water retention and its soil characteristics further constrain groundwater recharge. Limited irrigation infrastructure, concentrated mainly near dams and canals, compels local residents to depend on rivers, streams, and traditional wells for domestic water needs. The district, largely falling under the Narmada river catchment, exhibits a unique environmental duality, with over 60% covered by forests providing vital habitat for wildlife and serving as a crucial resource for the local population.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Eight: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey that collects bi-annual data on agricultural indicators, including crop production and sales, input use, crop marketing, farm and livestock assets, and farm services. MAPS is a sub-sample of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey that collects bi-annual data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. This note covers the eighth round of MAPS. Rounds 1, 3, 5, and 8 were conducted between January and March of 2022 and 2026 and collect recall data on monsoon production. Rounds 2, 4, 6, and 7 were conducted between June and October of 2022 and 2025 and collect recall data on dry season production (post/pre-monsoon season). In this note, we provide details on the data collection and sample characteristics of the eighth-round of MAPS. First, we briefly describe the modules present in MAPS data. Second, we discuss the household sampling design of MHWS and each MAPS round and the differences between the datasets. Third, we discuss the calculation of weights for MAPS and provide descriptives of the weighted sample. Most comparisons throughout the paper are between MAPS round 5 and MAPS round 8 because both surveys were carried out for the monsoon season.

Current Agro-Based Transformation and Its Future in East and Southern Africa

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

The significant economic implications of the value of farmland in developing countries is increasingly recognized, particularly in those countries where land scarcity is a growing problem. However, knowledge gaps remain about how farmland values can be affected by factors such as conflict and social instability. A knowledge gap also remains regarding how spatial transmission and feedback effects of land values among geographically proximate parcels may affect the relationship between conflict and farmland values. This impact has generally been overlooked in the literature, despite the well-established importance of clustering in agricultural economies. This paper addresses these gaps by utilizing unique, nationally representative panel data on farm households and spatial data on conflict intensity in Myanmar, with a focus on the period of significant conflict intensification following the 2021 political crisis, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when the country’s conflict level largely shifted to a high-intensity state. We apply spatial econometric models and their extensions to a panel data framework, as well as models that allow for endogenous spatial weights, which enable conflicts to not only affect farmland values but also shape how changes in farmland values transmit across locations. Our results indicate that more local conflict during the prior 12 months, measured by the number of months with at least one fatal violent event within the township of respondents, significantly reduced the farmland values of the largest rice plot of these respondents. Specifically, in the monsoon and non-monsoon harvesting seasons of 2022 and 2023, an additional one month of fatal violence was associated with approximately 3 percent and 5 percent decline in land values, respectively, implying a potentially sizable decline for townships that experience more persistent conflicts over several months. Moreover, the effects of violent events are magnified by spatial spillover effects on land values across village tracts. These adverse effects are robust and consistent across a range of methodologies and hold across diverse agroecological conditions.

Financial inclusion for youth in agrifood systems: Gendered barriers and solutions in northern Nigeria

Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing youth populations aged 15–35, yet financial exclusion continues to sideline young people, particularly young women, from fully participating in agrifood systems. When women control financial resources, they generate multiplier effects across the food system. In northern Nigeria, where more than half the population remains unbanked, the stakes are especially high. This research note draws on evidence from two complementary IFPRI studies to examine the financial inclusion experiences of young women and young men in northern Nigeria and identify practical, gender-sensitive solutions.

Strengthening Myanmar’s agrifood system: Evidence and pathways for resilience

Myanmar’s agrifood system is central to the country’s economy and to the livelihoods of most of its population, having historically accounted for roughly almost half of GDP and two-thirds of employment. Since 2021, the political crisis, intensifying conflict and insecurity, climate shocks, and a major earthquake have placed the system under sustained and compounding stress. Drawing on evidence collected between 2021 and 2025, this paper provides a snapshot of where the system stands following this period of crisis and identifies opportunities for strengthening its resilience going forward. Private sector actors have been central to sustaining the agrifood system’s resilience since 2021. Input retailers have maintained the physical availability of fertilizer, seeds, and agro-chemicals, even in insecure areas, while mechanization service providers have continued to supply labor-saving services through flexible payment arrangements. Private agribusinesses have absorbed the contraction in formal credit, now accounting for roughly three-quarters of fertilizer credit sources, and have become the dominant providers of extension, both in-person and digital. These actors are operating under significant financial stress, but they have sustained farmers’ access to inputs, services, credit, and advice during a period when these would otherwise have likely collapsed. Input costs have risen significantly since 2022, with agricultural wages, mechanization costs, and fertilizer prices all rising substantially. Farmers have responded by partially shifting toward lower-cost production practices, including direct seeding, which carries an estimated yield penalty of approximately 15 percent compared to transplanted rice. Promoting appropriate agricultural technologies in conflict- and climate-affected areas requires targeted attention, particularly for smallholders and more remote households. Sustaining and expanding development assistance alongside humanitarian assistance will be important to support the transition toward more productive and sustainable farming systems, with scaling domestic production of organic soil amendments and expanding mechanization services. Agricultural extension use rebounded to 38 percent in the 2025 dry season, with the private sector now the dominant provider and digital channels expanding rapidly. Given persistently low and unequal access to extension services, more inclusive outreach combining targeted in-person support in underserved areas with strengthened digital delivery is needed, with particular attention to women, less educated, remote, and conflict-affected farmers. As agrochemical distributors dominate both in-person and digital advisory services, promoting high-quality agronomic content and ensuring clear separation between technical advice and product promotion is important. The rapid expansion of digital platforms creates opportunities but requires investments in digital literacy, content quality, and monitoring systems to assess impact. Partnerships between digital platforms and large firms could also support traceability and quality requirements for export markets.