Publications and Datasets

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country’s three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination). The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

A robust spectral-temporal index for cross-regional mapping of plastic-mulched farmland using decametric-resolution images

Familiar strangers: The role of diaspora networks in foreign investment and long-run development

Trends, determinants, and anthropometric consequences of low birthweight in Indian children: A prospective analysis of national data

Background Low birthweight (LBW) is a major concern for child survival and growth, and India accounts for the highest number of such cases globally. Studies have examined determinants of birthweight and child growth but little evidence exists on how birthweight influences growth outcomes during early childhood. This paper examines associations between maternal, household, and health-related factors, LBW, and growth faltering, and explores childhood growth trajectories across birthweight groups. Methods Data from three waves of India’s National Family Health Survey were used to examine heaping-adjusted trends and predictors of LBW. Regression-based decomposition was used to quantify the way in which changes in predictors could reduce future LBW prevalence. Trajectories of childhood anthropometry by LBW status and determinants were examined by using smoothing and regression methods. Results The LBW prevalence between 2000 and 2020 was 20% (unadjusted) and 40% (heaping-adjusted). Improvements in maternal stature, weight, household wealth, and antenatal care coverage could yield the largest future reductions in LBW. Children born with LBW had 1.5 times higher odds of being underweight and 1.3 times higher odds of stunting. Maternal short stature, underweight, and poverty were associated with higher odds of subsequent anthropometric faltering regardless of LBW. Conclusion Findings show the dominant role of maternal nutrition in birthweight and childhood growth outcomes. Once a child is born with LBW, there is limited potential to prevent subsequent anthropometric failure. To break the intergenerational cycle of undernutrition, programs must prioritize improved nutrition for girls beginning early in life and sustained through adolescence and preconception.

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

The state of global food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, emergency responses, and rationally allocating foreign aid. For decades, global food security monitoring relied on the FAO’s prevalence of undernourishment, but this indicator’s fundamental limitations led the FAO to develop the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and adopt the unaffordability of the healthy diet. In parallel, The World Bank monitors monetary poverty, arguably a food insecurity indicator in its own right. In this study we assess whether this larger suite of indicators agrees on: (a) which countries are most food insecure; and (b) whether global food insecurity is really deteriorating. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. Longstanding criticisms of the prevalence of undernourishment still apply, while rising undernourishment in the past decade is driven by modelled increases in calorie inequality that are inconsistent with income inequality trends. The FIES fares no better: severe FIES food insecurity is higher in several Latin American and Caribbean countries than in extremely food-insecure African countries such as Niger. The World Bank’s poverty and healthy diet affordability monitoring efforts are significantly constrained by systematically fewer household surveys in poorer and more crisis-affected countries. How can this situation be improved? First, experience-based indicators need to be more rigorously evaluated for cross-cultural comparability, and alternatives need to be considered. Second, international agencies and national governments should pool resources to implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose surveys – focusing on poor and crisis-affected countries – to jointly monitor food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition, as well as their root causes.

Food systems policy coherence: A ten-country assessment

Policy coherence is widely recognised as essential for achieving food systems transformation, but attempts to assess food systems policy coherence have been limited to date in terms of their scope of topics and geographies and lack of comparable methods. This paper introduces the Food Systems Policy Coherence (FSPC) Diagnostic Tool and uses it to analyse food systems policy coherence across 10 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia through key informant interviews (n = 189) and review of policy documents (n = 808). The FSPC Diagnostic Tool considers two aspects of policy coherence: (1) the structures and mechanisms that may contribute to achieving stronger policy process coherence and (2) coherence between policies from six sectors and ten common food systems goals. Regarding the former, all countries analysed had strong framework documents for cross-sectoral food policy, backed by high-level political commitment, but they tended to be much weaker when it came to capacity for implementation and especially monitoring and accountability. Policy coherence across sectors was generally strong for the goals of climate change adaptation and social protection but weaker for goals of healthy diets for all, adequate wages for food system workers, and climate change mitigation through food systems. Trade policy was the policy area with the greatest incoherence with a diverse range of food systems goals. The results offer the most comprehensive analysis of food systems policy coherence to date. The tool makes a useful contribution to measuring policy coherence and can serve as both a foundation for future research and enhance accountability for achieving coherent policy outcomes.

Interpersonal communication and maternal behavioral practice: A case study of explanatory causal machine learning in Nepal

Background There is increasing interest not only in whether a program produced impacts but also the mechanisms through which the impacts were produced. Studies of nutrition interventions have frequently highlighted the role of nutrition education interventions, but few studies have investigated the paths through which those interventions achieve impact. Objectives We assessed the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on behavioral practice and the degree to which that effect operated through 2 key pathways: improved awareness and knowledge. We also conducted a comparative case study examining the differences between machine learning (ML) and structural equation model (SEM) approaches. Methods We used data from the endline cross-sectional survey of the quasi-experimental Suaahara study of 2040 mothers with a child less than 2 years of age. We estimated the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on her nutrition-related practices and the indirect effects through improvements in awareness and knowledge using ML and conventional SEMs. Models were adjusted for household, child, and maternal factors as well as household location. Results Maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker translated into practicing more of the ideal, promoted nutrition-related practices. Both methods suggested a similar total effect—ML: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.78) and SEM: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.72). ML models, however, attributed a much larger proportion of that total effect to indirect effects operating through awareness and knowledge (ML: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.33; SEMs: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.21). Conclusions Interpersonal communication improved nutrition-related practices, in part due to increasing one’s awareness and knowledge. The disparities in results between ML and SEMs suggested that the production of effects is a more complex, nonlinear or interactive function of awareness, knowledge, treatment and covariates than what is captured by simple linear models.

From agreements to action: Practical tools for strengthening transboundary water cooperation

Key takeaways Addressing small bottlenecks in managing transboundary water resources is key to realizing the broad goals elaborated in formal agreements. Rapid assessments help identify realistic solutions. A case in Central Asia found strong day-to-day cooperation but outdated rules, unclear responsibilities, and limited stakeholder engagement. Inclusive institutions make water governance more resilient. Multistakeholder platforms help build trust, improve decision-making, and support long-term cooperation.

Myanmar monthly food price report – June 2026

Rice prices rose modestly in June 2026, up 5.2 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional price disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses prices remained broadly stable, while maize prices increased modestly, supported by continued export demand. In contrast, green gram prices declined as concerns over pesticide residues and grain quality reportedly led some Chinese buyers to reject shipments. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Onion and chili prices increased, supported by stronger export demand, while garlic and potato prices declined as increased market supplies, including higher inflows of Chinese garlic and potatoes, placed downward pressure on prices. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially above year-earlier levels, led by mutton, fish, and beef. Month-on-month price movements were generally modest, although mutton prices remained at record highs due to constrained goat supply, while fish prices continued to be supported by seasonal fishing restrictions through the end of June. The conflict in Iran and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports transit — continue to keep fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar well above year-earlier levels. Some farmers report cultivating smaller areas or reducing plowing in response. With paddy prices largely flat, thinner margins are likely to translate into lower fertilizer application rates and, ultimately, reduced monsoon-season production. Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in the country.

Predicting agricultural productivity under climate change using crop yield emulator

This study develops a crop yield emulator as a computationally efficient alternative to the DSSAT process-based model, enabling fast, large-scale assessments of how temperature, rainfall, CO2, and nitrogen influence crop yields. Implemented using fixed-effects polynomial regression in R, the emulator was trained on DSSAT outputs and validated across seven globally important crops, maize, wheat (spring and winter), rice (indica and japonica), soybeans, sorghum, groundnuts, and potatoes. It showed high predictive accuracy (R2 > 0.90) for most crops, especially spring wheat, groundnut, and potato, and performed reliably under climate scenarios such as RCP7.0. The emulator captured key crop-specific responses, such as maize’s sensitivity to heat and nonlinear yield responses to nitrogen inputs. While its performance is slightly lower for maize and Indica rice compared to other crops, it remains a scalable and cost-effective tool for climate scenario analysis. This tool offers valuable support for agricultural decision-making and climate adaptation planning by enabling rapid, data-driven insights into yield outcomes under future conditions.

Gender, labor, and output allocation in Nigeria’s aquacultural sector

Aquaculture is an important source of food and income in Nigeria, but evidence on gender differences in labor participation and output allocation remains limited. Using nationally representative microdata from the National Agricultural Sample Survey and weighted ordinary least squares (OLS) and fractional logit models, this study examines whether the gender of the aquacultural manager is associated with labor participation, production, and allocation of output to home consumption and sales. The results show that after controlling for observable characteristics, households managed by women are not less engaged in aquaculture and do not produce less than households managed by men. Instead, gender differences appear in how farms operate and distribute their output. Households managed by women employ a substantially higher share of women’s labor and allocate approximately 4 percentage points more of their output to home consumption, even after conditioning on production scale, a result that is robust across OLS and fractional logit specifications. Sales shares, however, do not differ significantly by the manager’s gender. The consumption share results may suggest that women’s management is associated with greater home retention of output, which could carry food security implications not captured by standard income-focused metrics, although the survey does not permit direct assessment of food security or nutritional outcomes. The findings suggest that policies aimed at strengthening women’s participation in aquaculture should consider differences in how labor is organized and output allocation, alongside efforts to improve productivity and market participation.

Societal Challenges and Suitability Mapping of Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions: Evidence from Case Studies in White Nile, El Gedaref, and Kassala, Sudan

This study focuses on three refugee-hosting areas in Sudan—Kassala, El Gedaref, and White Nile—with three main aims: to assess key societal and environmental challenges in each state; to identify Resilient Nature-based Water Solution (RNBWS) suited to local socio-ecological conditions; and to map areas most suitable for implementing these solutions to enhance environmental sustainability and livelihood resilience. The study combined a review of published and grey literature with multi-temporal satellite imagery and geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis. These methods were used to assess societal challenges, land-use and land-cover change, land degradation neutrality, and site characteristics such as slope and soil type. Spatial analysis, guided by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Standards for Nature-based Solutions and the Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM), was used to identify and prioritize suitable areas for RNBWS. Results show that economic hardship, conflict, weak governance, natural disasters, and climate change are key drivers of displacement and migration across the three states. Over the last two decades, forestlands, shrublands, grasslands, and water bodies have declined, while agricultural land, settlements, and degraded areas have expanded. Socio-economic and governance constraints—including insecure land tenure, dependence on rainfed agriculture, food insecurity, competition over land, water, grazing, and fuelwood, and weak institutional coordination—shape both vulnerability and implementation feasibility. At the same time, the analysis identified extensive areas suitable for multiple RNBWS, including tree-based solutions, rainwater harvesting, soil and water conservation, and ecological restoration. The findings provide spatially explicit evidence to guide humanitarian programming, state-level planning, climate adaptation, and investment decisions in Sudan’s displacement-affected landscapes.

Can rice policy reform help improve food security and diets in India?

India’s rice policies have played a crucial role in shaping the country’s agricultural sector and ensuring food security for its vast and diverse population. Since rice is a staple food for millions, policies governing its production, pricing, and distribution are vital to maintaining sufficient supplies, stabilizing prices, and making rice affordable and accessible to everyone. However, as dietary patterns change and there is increasing concern about nutrition and environmental sustainability, it is important to consider whether shifting existing rice support toward more targeted or diversified strategies could better promote food security and healthier diets in India. This paper explores this question by evaluating, in advance, the effects of different ways of allocating current support using model-based scenario analysis. The study shows that eliminating all current support would do little to improve the affordability of rice and other foods or to make production more sustainable in India. In contrast, redirecting just a portion of input subsidies—the main type of domestic agricultural support—toward increased investment in research and development for productivity-boosting and climate-resilient technologies could drive meaningful change. This shift could promote more sustainable agricultural practices, lower food prices and the cost of a healthy diet and, ultimately, enhance food security and nutrition across the country.

Links between school meal programs and regenerative agriculture: Scoping literature review

School meal programs (SMPs) are among the largest public investments in child well-being worldwide, and they have untapped potential to act as levers for sustainable food systems transformation. This discussion paper provides an overview of evidence on linkages between regenerative agriculture and SMPs, and also presents a framework to guide future analytical work on integrating regenerative agriculture and SMPs for food systems transformation. We conducted a scoping review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA). The reviewed literature reveals a geographically diverse but uneven distribution of research on how SMPs incentivize regenerative agriculture. The review reports emerging evidence on the ability of SMPs to generate positive outcomes for livelihoods and community development. That evidence, however, is limited in scope as it is dominated by studies on Brazil’s SMP. Beyond Brazil, our review found no evidence that conclusively establishes a causal relationship between SMPs and the uptake of regenerative agriculture. Much of the literature focuses on smallholder procurement, organic production, or agroecological practices more broadly, with relatively few studies explicitly measuring regenerative outcomes such as soil health restoration, biodiversity gains, or carbon sequestration.

Modernizing Bangladesh’s social protection system: Priorities for more effective and inclusive social protection

Bangladesh has made considerable progress in reducing poverty, with social protection programs playing an important role in protecting poor and vulnerable households from economic shocks and promoting human development. Despite these achievements, the system faces persistent challenges, including fragmented programs, weak coordination, targeting errors, and inefficient allocation of public resources. A substantial share of social protection spending is directed toward programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these shortcomings has become increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising food prices, slower economic growth, and climate-related risks. This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget. This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget.

Assessing environmental and social burdens in agrifood systems: Insights from Colombia and Peru

Agrifood systems (AFS) in Colombia and Peru generate substantial economic value but also impose significant environmental and social externalities that remain unpriced and largely invisible in policy and market decisions. Using the Global Impact Database (GID) and a True Cost Accounting (TCA) framework, this paper quantifies the hidden costs embedded in 19 AFS sectors, with a focus on seven major crop sectors. As one of the first cross-country applications of GID data in Latin America, the analysis offers a harmonized and comprehensive assessment of the true costs of food production, processing, and distribution. Results show that externalities are equivalent to 12 percent of AFS output in Colombia and 13 percent in Peru—a substantial burden that is not captured by conventional economic indicators. Environmental externalities dominate in both countries, driven primarily by land occupation, climate change, air pollution, and use of scarce water. Social externalities—especially underpayment, child labor, and gender wage gaps—are smaller in aggregate but become markedly more significant within crop sectors, as labor intensity and informality characterize production systems. Livestock, dairy, and bovine meat products consistently emerge as the most externality‑intensive sectors, while cereals, rice, sugarcane, oilseeds, and fruits and vegetables exhibit comparatively lower externality costs. Value‑chain decomposition shows that most externalities originate at the production stage (at farm level). These findings highlight several clear leverage points for targeted policy and investment: reducing environmental pressures in livestock systems, improving labor conditions in crop sectors, and integrating TCA metrics into national planning and sustainability strategies. Making the hidden costs visible is essential for advancing more sustainable, equitable, inclusive, and resilient food systems in Colombia and Peru.

“Smart” targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

Fertilizer subsidy programs in the Global South often juggle competing policy objectives of maximizing aggregate production and providing social protection for the poorest households. Using 2026 survey data from 3105 Kenyan households paired with parcel-level soil tests, this paper evaluates the targeting performance of Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP). Specifically, we analyze the extent to which the current “de facto” targeting—driven by digital registration and e-vouchers—aligns with these possibly conflicting policy goals. We find that the subsidy recipient populations who would maximize productivity do not tend to include the poorest and most vulnerable farmers. Furthermore, the current pool of NFSP beneficiaries shows limited overlap with the ideal beneficiaries for either policy objective. Among those who we would ideally target, we find that factors such as mobile phone ownership and knowledge of fertilizer recommendations may help predict which households actually receive benefits. We conclude that integrating soil testing into subsidy frameworks could significantly reduce these inefficiencies and improve the alignment between program delivery and national agricultural goals.

Agricultural inputs and harvest among vegetable producers in rural Sri Lanka: Insights from a baseline survey of the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) end-to-end evaluation

Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector plays a vital role in the food security and nutrition of its people. In recent years, overlapping crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, severe economic collapse, climate-related shocks, such as cyclone Ditwah and subsequent flooding, and global political unrest have disrupted food systems and exacerbated food insecurity for Sri Lankans. These challenges have constrained access to nutrient-rich foods, while increasing reliance on cheaper, less nutritious alternatives. At the same time, Sri Lanka has been undergoing a nutrition transition characterized by increased consumption of ultra-processed foods and a double burden of malnutrition including micronutrient deficiencies and rising rates of overweight and obesity.

Intake of aquatic and terrestrial animal source foods among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania

Aquatic foods and terrestrial animal source foods (TASF) provide crucial nutrients that build and maintain muscle mass and function. These foods are particularly rich in essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, vitamin A (as retinol), vitamin D, and vitamin B12, as well as essential fatty acids. Notably, vitamin B12 is found almost exclusively in TASF and some aquatic foods, underscoring their importance in diets. Compared with plant-sourced protein foods, aquatic foods and TASF generally provide micronutrients in more bioavailable forms, which is critical for populations at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. However, aquatic foods and TASF have a higher environmental footprint than plant-sourced protein foods, requiring diversified strategies to meet global dietary needs under increasing environmental pressures.

Anticipatory action and early warning systems: A community engagement toolkit for the Sahel

A key finding from this work was that community leaders expressed strong demand for training and concrete guidance on how to act before disasters arrive. Leaders understood the value of early action and were eager for practical tools that could help their communities move from awareness to preparation. There was also significant appetite for understanding how anticipatory action programming could complement and strengthen the preventative efforts communities were already undertaking on their own. This motivated developing the following field-ready storyboard tool – designed to introduce anticipatory action to leaders and community members in concrete, accessible terms and to support community leaders in building the shared understanding and buy-in needed to put early action plans in place before the next crisis arrives.

Boosting resilience of agrifood systems through synchronization of financial and fiscal instruments

This chapter defines the scope of fiscal and financial instruments deployed to enhance the resilience of agrifood systems. The analysis covers core fiscal tools, such as public investment, subsidies, and policy guarantees as methods of government resource allocation, alongside the key financial instruments, including credit, insurance, financial derivatives, and public–private partnership (PPP) investments. Financial instruments are key to mobilizing funds and managing risks in building a resilient agrifood systems. Green finance plays a pivotal role in resource mobilization, and green insurance stands out for its ability to buffer shocks and safeguard stakeholders through risk management. Medium- and long-term loans (often development-oriented) provide essential funding for rural infrastructure, as well as food processing and storage equipment, all of which are critical to a resilient agrifood systems. Public funds and national financial and monetary policies are major drivers of green finance. Amid increasingly stringent global trade rules, structural shifts are occurring in government support for the agrifood systems, with more public funds being allocated to promote green and resilient systems. National financial policies, central bank monetary tools, and regulatory frameworks have played a crucial role in strengthening the coordination between fiscal and financial support for agrifood systems resilience. Blended finance is playing an increasingly important role in strengthening agrifood systems resilience. Public and philanthropic funds typically serve as seed capital to leverage private investment. On the one hand, blended finance amplifies the impact of public and philanthropic funding; on the other hand, it helps ensure efficient fund use in line with market principles. International organizations, philanthropic foundations, and specialized research institutions have emerged as key catalysts in this evolving ecosystem.

Qualitative research tools to study women’s voice, leadership, and the role of collectives and programs on household and community change

These guides are designed to support researchers and implementing organizations in conducting rigorous, in-depth qualitative research on women’s voice, agency, and leadership and its impacts on households and communities. This toolkit is intended for social scientists, research teams, and program staff who want a structured, validated approach to understanding how women experience and exercise voice and agency and how collectives, social movements, and programmatic interventions shape those experiences. It is designed to be used when the objective is to understand current conditions, to reconstruct the process of change that produced those conditions, and the consequences on communities and community groups of women’s leadership over time. The toolkit takes a multi-level approach, comprising five instruments that together capture individual, household, collective, and organizational perspectives on women’s leadership. Community- and individual-level instruments capture individual and collective experience from the perspective of male and female group members and non-members, leaders, and household members. An organizational-level instrument captures the programmatic perspective — what conditions preceded program entry, how decisions were made about where to start programming, and how organizations understand their own contribution to change. Together the instruments enable a more complete account of how women’s voice and leadership environments develop than any single data source could provide.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, June 2026

Retail prices of maize stagnated in the Southern and Central Regions. The continued arrival of newly harvested maize drove price declines in the Northern Region, reflecting its later harvest season compared with the rest of the country. Continued maize imports of maize from Mozambique and Zambia also helped keep Malawian prices down.

How African economies are absorbing the 2026 oil price shock (so far)

Oil prices began climbing in January 2026 amid the escalating U.S. and Israeli confrontation with Iran, then spiked when war broke out on February 28 and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose by roughly 70% within weeks. By June, a fragile ceasefire had brought prices part of the way back down. Whether the calm holds depends on further diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties. Whatever the negotiators do next, this shock continues to stress economies and food systems around the world, though effects vary by region and country. Has it reached (or will it reach) Africa’s food systems, and where?

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania: Foreword

Improving diets can improve nutrition and health outcomes. In this supplement, evidence from five low-and-middle-income countries on the country specific dietary (including F&V) intake patterns, nutrition issues and evaluated solutions to improve diets across population groups is presented. Based on this evidence, the final paper offers perspectives and future priorities.

Perceived challenges and solutions to adopting healthy diets among women and children: A photovoice study in urban Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of undernutrition among children under five (U5) and women of reproductive age (WRA) globally, alongside rising overweight/obesity, particularly in urban areas. Poor diet is a shared driver of multiple forms of malnutrition. We used a participatory photography (Photovoice) approach to explore the lived experiences of WRA and their children U5 in adopting healthy diets across lower- and higher- socio-economic status (SES) groups in Addis Ababa. Women took photographs illustrating challenges to healthy diets, and five focus groups (n = 31 women) were conducted to discuss challenges and solutions, with separate sessions held for different SES groups. A hybrid thematic analysis, combining deductive and inductive approaches, identified themes/subthemes, with comparisons across SES groups. Financial and physical barriers to accessing healthy foods, time constraints and perceived poor food safety were major contributors to poor diets. In lower SES groups, women also reported limited knowledge about healthy diets, inadequate family support and poor home food environments. In higher SES groups, unhealthy food preferences coupled with easy access to and aggressive promotion of unhealthy foods were key challenges. Proposed government-level solutions included job creation, nutrition education, affordable healthy food, investment in household infrastructure, expanded childcare and restrictions on unhealthy food availability and promotion. Societal-level solutions included gender equality, strengthened community-based loan schemes and support for urban agriculture. These findings highlight that women recognise their needs and who should support them, and emphasise the importance of including women’s voices in decision-making processes. Findings also underscore the need for integrated interventions targeting individual, food environment and socio-economic drivers to improve diets among women and children in urban Ethiopia.

Urbanicity and the diets and nutritional status of adolescents and their mothers in Vietnam

Background Urbanization catalyzes significant shifts in diets worldwide, yet its impact on adolescent diets and nutrition is poorly understood. Objectives We examined the association between urbanicity and diets and nutritional status among Vietnamese adolescents and their mothers. Methods We assessed diets using a multipass 24-h recall (15% repeated) and collected anthropometric data from 2861 adolescents and their mothers (n = 2664) in rural, peri-urban and urban areas. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS: total 0–49; healthy: 0–32; unhealthy: 0–17) and risk categories. We estimated usual intakes (National Cancer Institute’s method) and the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) for 11 micronutrients. We compared outcomes across areas using regression models adjusted for school-level clustering. Results GDQS healthy was higher in the urban area (adolescents 7.5, mothers 9.5) than in the rural area (6.6 and 7.7). GDQS unhealthy was comparable across areas (∼11 in adolescents and mothers). Adolescent and maternal diets in the rural area were most likely to fall in the GDQS high-risk category for nutrient inadequacy and non-communicable diseases(23% and 11%). MPA was low across all areas for both adolescents and mothers (≤40%). The prevalence of overweight/obesity was highest in urban areas among adolescents (29%) and similar across areas among mothers (15%–19%). Conclusions Urbanicity was positively associated with healthier diets due to greater healthy food consumption, but also with higher risks of adolescent overweight/obesity. Differences by study area, however, were small and diet healthiness was low across all settings. Innovative school and food environment interventions and policies are needed to promote greater consumption of healthy foods and limit unhealthy food intake among Vietnamese adolescents and their mothers, and to prevent and control rising overweight/obesity.

Changing demographics in Ghana’s agrifood systems and implications for future youth engagement

Agrifood systems (AFS) are central to employment, food security, and economic transformation across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As economies grow, urbanize, and experience changing food demand, AFS increasingly extend beyond farming to include processing and other downstream value chain activities. These transformations create new employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, while reshaping labor markets and livelihoods. Understanding these changes is therefore essential for designing policies that promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and food system resilience. This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains. This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains. The study finds that AFS remains the largest source of employment in Ghana, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total employment. Agriculture continues to employ a substantial share of workers, particularly men and youth, but its relative importance has declined steadily over time. At the same time, employment in nonfarm agrifood system activities – including food manufacturing, trade, transportation, and food services – expanded considerably. These findings suggest that Ghana’s labor market transformation is occurring not through a rapid exit from AFS but through diversification within them as value chains deepen and become more integrated. The analysis also reveals important demographic patterns in AFS employment. Women are more concentrated in agrifood system employment than men and are particularly represented in nonfarm AFS activities such as trade and food-related services. However, women continue to face disadvantages in employment quality, financial inclusion, access to productive assets, and participation in formal employment. Similarly, youth remain highly dependent on AFS for their livelihoods. Although labor force participation among young people is lower and unemployment is higher than among mature workers, AFS – particularly farming – continues to provide employment for a large share of young people. These findings underscore the importance of AFS as a source of economic inclusion while highlighting the persistent barriers that women and youth continue to face. Although the available data do not permit separate analysis of young women as a distinct population group, the combined evidence from this study and the broader literature suggests that they are likely to benefit substantially from the continued expansion of nonfarm agrifood activities. Food processing, marketing, food services, and other downstream value-chain segments are expanding in Ghana while already employing relatively large shares of women. Strengthening access to finance, productive assets, business development services, skills, and digital technologies can therefore help translate ongoing agrifood transformation into more dignified and fulfilling employment opportunities for young women. Employment outside agrifood systems also expanded during the study period, with the share of non-AFS employment increasing by four percentage points to 34.6 percent in 2017, reflecting Ghana’s gradual structural transformation. Growth in non-AFS employment was stronger among men and mature adults than among women and youth, indicating that opportunities outside agrifood systems have expanded unevenly across population groups. Overall, Ghana exhibits a relatively advanced stage of agrifood system transformation, characterized by declining agricultural employment, expanding nonfarm AFS activities, and gradual growth in non-AFS employment. Continued investments in agrifood value chains, infrastructure, market connectivity, access to finance, and entrepreneurship support will be essential to ensure that this transformation generates productive, inclusive, and resilient employment, particularly for women and young people.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Globally, 75% of adolescents do not meet recommendations for fruits and vegetables (F&V) consumption. This study investigated drivers of F&V choices among adolescents in Benin and identified barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption. We conducted 16 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 126 adolescents and 5 semi-structured school observations in December 2024. FGDs were purposively chosen to explore variation by region (north/south), school location (urban/rural), adolescent age (12 to 15 years/16-18 years) and gender (boys/girls). Inductive and deductive thematic content analysis was performed using Atlas.ti. Findings showed that adolescents perceived a healthy diet as one composed of meals providing nutrients and strength, and including F&V. At home, adolescents mentioned eating staples and other vegetables more than other food groups. The foods adolescents reported typically eating at school varied by age, gender, and location. The primary categories of factors that influenced adolescent F&V choices were: intrapersonal (knowledge related to healthy eating and the nutrition and health benefits of F&V, taste preferences, and health prioritisation), socio-cultural (family and peer influences), and food environment (low availability, low affordability, convenience, and desirability). DFC factors were consistent across adolescent age, gender, and location. Multiple, dynamic, and multilevel factors influence adolescent F&V choices. Interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers and involve family and peers are likely to be more successful in promoting F&V consumption and healthy diets than interventions only addressing individual barriers.

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season. Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing. Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season. Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country’s main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need. Recommended Actions: Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors. Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases. Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.

Barriers and factors associated with treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition among children 6–59 months in agrarian and pastoralist areas of Ethiopia

Severe acute malnutrition remains a major public health concern, yet a large proportion of affected children do not receive appropriate treatment. Understanding the barriers and associated factors is essential for informing targeted, context‐specific interventions. A door‐to‐door screening campaign among children aged 6–59 months was conducted from May to September 2024 in Kersa (agrarian) and Jeldessa (pastoralist) woredas of Ethiopia. The treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition was 12.8% (95% CI: 9.0%–17.9%). The most frequently reported barriers to treatment included lack of awareness of the child’s nutritional status, time and financial constraints, and absence of family permission. Multivariable analysis revealed that household wealth index (aPR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5–5.5), use of water treatment methods (aPR: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.7–11.9), recent community MUAC screening (aPR: 12.0; 95% CI: 5.4–26.8), availability of treatment services at a nearby health post (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.9), and possession of a vaccination card (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.1) were significantly associated with severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage. The findings highlight that severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage in both pastoralist and agrarian settings of Ethiopia remains critically low. Stronger implementation of active screening and treatment services recommended by Ethiopian national guidelines, together with social protection measures for the poorest households, may improve treatment coverage.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices of children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoralist settings of Ethiopia

Previous research has established determinants of young child feeding (IYCF) practices in the general child population, but determinants of these practices in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are unknown. This study assessed the determinants of IYCF practices among children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment in a pastoralist and a predominantly agrarian setting in Ethiopia. As part of the baseline survey for the R-SWITCH cluster randomized control trial, we screened ~28,000 under-fives and included 486 children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants on household, caregiver and child levels. Minimum meal frequency (MMF) was similar between children from the agrarian (53.9%) and pastoralist (51.9%) setting. The prevalence of children with minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was low overall but higher among pastoralist children (31.5%) than children from the agrarian setting (19.0%; p = 0.012). The consumption of egg/flesh foods was lower among pastoralist children (5.6%) than agrarian children (16.9%, p = 0.085). Caregiver literacy was positively associated with a higher likelihood of MMF (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI:1.02–1.43; p = 0.030), while caregiver depression was associated with a lower likelihood of MMF (RR = 0.97; 95% CI:0.95–0.99; p = 0.003). Improved water source (RR = 1.59; 95% CI:1.06–2.38; p = 0.037), caregiver literacy (RR = 2.04; 95% CI:1.25–3.34; p = 0.002), caregiver MDD (RR = 2.21; 95% CI:1.60–3.05; p ≤ 0.001), older children(RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02–1.08;p ≤ 0.001), and pastoralist setting (RR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.07–2.44; p = 0.014) were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of meeting MDD. Conversely, caregiver depression (RR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.90–0.97; p < 0.001), caregiver mobility restriction (IRR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.89–1.00; p = 0.025), and food insecurity (RR = 0.64; 95% CI:0.41–1.01; p = 0.05) were associated with reduced MDD likelihood. Caregiver community involvement (IRR = 1.12; 95% CI:1.00–1.26; p = 0.038), caregiver MDD (RR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.10–2.53; p = 0.043), and older children (RR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.05–1.12; p < 0.001) were associated with increased egg/flesh-food consumption among children, while living in a pastoralist setting was associated with reduced it (RR = 0.36; 95% CI:0.13–0.97; p = 0.038). Integrated and Targeted interventions recommended: caregiver literacy/depression support to improve IYCF; livelihood-specific foods (eggs/flesh, fruits/vegetables); WaSH enhancements; community engagement; and IYCF counseling within CMAM programs.

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Unhealthy diets have become a leading contributor to death and disability globally. The current Chinese diet falls short of a healthy diet, including too much meat, oil, salt, and sugar while having insufficient levels of whole grains, fruits, nuts, and milk. Transforming Chinese dietary patterns has become urgent. This paper compares the effectiveness of information framing effects on enhancing Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices, varied by information content, source, and presentation. The survey is conducted across six Chinese cities, with a sample of 3150 urban consumers. Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices are measured using an online discrete choice experiment. Four different diet patterns were used to label each of the product alternatives in the experiment, which varied in taste and cost. Results reveal that compared to positive information; negatively framed healthy information is more effective in increasing Chinese consumers’ valuations for healthy diets. Consumer valuation of a healthy whole diet is significantly enhanced when the information is from social celebrities, compared to information from a scientific source. Moreover, when health information is disclosed via social media, its effectiveness in promoting healthy diet choices is significantly reduced. Our findings have implications for designing and implementing nutrition policies and programs in China and other developing countries.

Formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh: Strengthening household survey measures of maternal micronutrient supplementation in low- and middle-income countries

Background As countries transition from implementing iron folic acid (IFA) to multiple micronutrient supplements (MMS) for pregnant women, they need accurate data on who is being reached with these interventions. The aim of our formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh was to design updated household survey questions, response options, and visual aids to measure coverage of prenatal micronutrient supplements. Methods In phase I, we landscaped health providers and retailers to identify prenatal micronutrient products available in each country and interviewed currently pregnant women (CPW) and recently delivered women (RDW) about how they differentiated among micronutrient products. In phase II, we used these findings to draft survey questions and visual aids. In phase III, we iteratively tested and refined the draft tools through cognitive interviews with women. Results We had 73 participants in Ethiopia and 132 in Bangladesh, encompassing CPW, RDW, healthcare workers, and retailers. Women in both contexts distinguished among micronutrient products based on colour, shape, packaging, and perceived purpose. In cognitive tests, women generally understood the English term ‘iron’ as a catch-all term for any iron-containing supplement. Women did not recognise any specific term for multivitamins or MMS. Shorter recalls of seven days or one month for adherence were feasible for respondents. Conclusions It is challenging for the measurement community to identify terms and images that help women distinguish between supplement types. The final set of survey questions developed as part of this research is comprehensible and can be feasibly adapted and used in multi-topic surveys in MMS contexts, but requires validation.

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Food is always close by: An assessment of the healthiness of the adolescent home and school food environments in northern Vietnam

Background Adolescents are vulnerable to rapidly evolving food environments. Urbanization is widely thought to contribute to less healthy food environments, and school food environments are often considered less healthy than those at home. These associations, however, have not been quantified. Objective Assess differences in adolescent food environments in Northern Vietnam by setting (home vs school) and area (rural town, peri-urban or urban). Methods We collected cross-sectional data on adolescents (n=3,005) and surveyed all outlets (n=6,194) that sold food or beverages around adolescents’ homes and schools (n=13) in three sites that differed in urbanicity. We calculated distances from home and school to the nearest outlet selling select food groups and measured outlet density and diversity of foods offered (within 100-meter radius). We analyzed differences by urbanicity and by home/school environment using regression models, accounting for clustering at commune level. Results Both unhealthy food groups (UFG) (e.g., sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets), and healthy food groups (HFG) (e.g., fruits, nuts/seeds) were closer to adolescents’ home in the urban (∼21-50 m) than the peri-urban area (∼75-200 m) and rural town (∼155-270 m). Fruits and vegetables were consistently further away than UFG across all areas in home environments, although still close by (∼ 50-270 m). Urban adolescents were exposed to the greatest density and diversity of both HFG and UFG close to home and school. There were no differences in healthiness of home and school food environments. Conclusions Unhealthy foods were more accessible (in distance) and available (in density) than fruits and vegetables across all settings, but differences were small and food was always close by. Diversity of HFG and UFG was the greatest in urban areas. Healthy foods should be promoted and made the preferred choice through nudging interventions at point-of-purchase, combined with restrictions on the marketing and availability of unhealthy foods.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agrifood system

Armed actors are entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often with implications for agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. This paper focuses on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, the paper traces how these actors gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that their investments in certain value chains depend on whether the formal private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required for more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, biased competition through licencing and quota allocations, acquiescence to private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when profit potential is high and the private sector is absent. We demonstrate these strategies with respect to livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Since economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023-armed conflict, identifying these strategies expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Digital and technology-enabled approaches in dietary assessment: Addressing bias, error, and feasibility in population- and community-based research

Dietary intake data are essential for understanding diet–disease relationships, informing policy, and evaluating nutrition interventions. This is particularly challenging in population- and community-based research, where varying dietary patterns, motivation to participate, and practical constraints limit the feasibility of highly controlled dietary assessment methods. Advances in digital tools, mobile technologies, and artificial intelligence are transforming how dietary data are collected, processed, and analyzed. This narrative review examines how digital and technology-enabled approaches impact key sources of bias and error across the stages of dietary assessment, including sample selection, participant reporting, food classification, and nutrient composition assignment. We also assess the feasibility of implementing these approaches in large-scale research settings, considering cost, infrastructure, respondent burden, and scalability. Although many technologies have the potential to reduce specific sources of bias and measurement error, such as recall limitations, interviewer effects, and misclassification, they may simultaneously introduce new challenges, including selection bias, increased analytic complexity, and high development or implementation costs. These trade-offs are most pronounced in large and heterogeneous study populations, where assessment methods must balance accuracy with feasibility across diverse contexts. Constraints related to connectivity, device access, and technical capacity may further limit implementation in low-resource settings. Technological innovations offer significant opportunities to improve dietary assessment, but their value depends on context-specific trade-offs between accuracy and feasibility. Careful consideration of these factors is essential when selecting methods for population- and community-based nutrition research.

Women’s experiences of the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetable intake: Insights from northern Tanzania

This analysis examined associations between factors in the food environment and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake among women living in rural Northern Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data from 2597 women and 1275 food sources. Women’s self-reported factors included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. We also measured women’s access to F&V sources using geospatial measures of distance and time from home to the reported typical sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of indicators of women’s experience and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates. On average, 5% and 35% of women reported buying F&V daily, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources were 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources were 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and variety of F&V intake. Women’s perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake.Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s frequency and variety of F&V intake, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

Uncovering the climate vulnerability of China’s poverty alleviation frontiers

Exposure to social and behavior change interventions directly and indirectly improved health and nutrition-related awareness, knowledge, and practices among male household heads and grandmothers in Nepal

Background Adult family members often share household tasks and decision-making, including those related to health and nutrition. Beyond the important role of mothers, grandparents and fathers also often play key contributing roles for maternal and child nutrition and health. Objectives This study aimed to investigate whether exposure of male household heads (HHs) and grandmothers to social behavior change communication (SBCC) platforms was associated with ideal nutrition and health practices in their households and the mediating role of awareness and knowledge for this linkage. We also aimed to investigate whether key sociodemographic factors moderated these mediated paths. Methods We used data from the endline survey (2022) of Suaahara’s quasi-experimental impact evaluation. Our samples were limited to households with a child <2 that included male HHs (n = 982) and grandmothers (n = 817). Structural equation models, accounting for community-level clustering, were used to examine the mediation paths for male HHs and grandmothers separately. All models were adjusted for household wealth and caste/ethnicity, child age, and respondent (male HHs or grandmothers) age and education. Stratified models examined potential moderating factors: wealth (relatively poorer 40% compared with wealthier 60%), caste/ethnicity (upper compared with lower), and household structure (nuclear compared with joint). Results Greater exposure to SBCC was associated with greater awareness and, in turn, knowledge, and ultimately, maternal and child health and nutrition practices. Approximately 30% and 40% of the total association was mediated through this indirect path among male HHs and grandmothers, respectively. The indirect path through greater awareness and knowledge was stronger among male HHs from lower (compared with upper) caste/ethnic groups and nuclear (compared with joint) households, as well as wealthier (compared with poorer) grandmothers. Conclusions Family member engagement in SBCC interventions is an important mechanism for improving health and nutrition practices.

Gestational weight gain and maternal immediate perinatal and postpartum outcomes in low and middle income countries: Individual participant data meta-analyses

Objective To estimate the associations between gestational weight gain and maternal immediate perinatal and postpartum outcomes by pooling data from low and middle income countries. Design Individual participant data meta-analyses. Data sources PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library, based on three searches (Search 1: all prospective studies published from January 2000 to May 2021; Search 2: randomized controlled trials of balanced energy and protein supplementation published until June 2021; Search 3: randomized controlled trials of anti-infectious agents published until August 2021). Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective studies (randomised controlled trials or observational cohort studies) with measured maternal weight during pregnancy and data available on maternal height, based in populations from low and middle income countries with no underlying conditions. Results The analyses included 156 300 women from 61 studies and 23 countries, with most participants based in South Asia (n=78 454, 50.2%) and sub-Saharan Africa (n=36 327, 23.2%). Compared with women with adequate (90-125%) gestational weight gain, women with excessive (>125%) gestational weight gain had a higher risk of caesarean delivery (risk ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.13, τ2=0.000) and emergency caesarean delivery (risk ratio 1.22, 1.03 to 1.43, τ2=0.000). Women with moderately (70% to <90%) or severely inadequate (<70%) versus adequate gestational weight gain had lower risks for caesarean delivery (risk ratio in women with moderately inadequate gestational weight gain 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.92, τ2=0.004; risk ratio in women with severely inadequate gestational weight gain 0.82, 0.77 to 0.88, τ2=0.010) and emergency caesarean delivery (risk ratio in moderately inadequate gestational weight gain 0.82, 0.71 to 0.95, τ2=0.004; risk ratio in severely inadequate gestational weight gain 0.73, 0.56 to 0.96, τ2=0.103). Excessive versus adequate gestational weight gain was associated with higher postpartum weight retained at any time point (mean difference 2.00 kg, 95% confidence interval 1.49 to 2.50, τ2=1.317), whereas moderately and severely inadequate gestational weight gain were associated with lower retained weight compared with adequate gestational weight gain. Similar trends were found for postpartum body mass index. Severely inadequate gestational weight gain was associated with lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure at any time point post partum than adequate gestational weight gain. No associations were observed for other outcomes including postpartum depressive symptoms or breastfeeding. Evidence indicating an interaction between gestational weight gain and body mass index before pregnancy was found when examining the risk of caesarean delivery and postpartum weight retention, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure as outcomes. Conclusions These findings support the association between suboptimal gestational weight gain and adverse maternal outcomes in the immediate perinatal and postpartum periods. Further research examining the consequences of suboptimal gestational weight gain in low and middle income countries would be valuable to inform potential strategies to improve long term maternal health.

Feasibility and readiness for scaling‐up multiple micronutrient supplements in Nepal: A qualitative study using the expandnet scaling‐up framework

Micronutrient deficiencies in pregnancy remain a critical public health issue in Nepal, where iron–folic acid (IFA) supplementation alone has not fully addressed maternal and neonatal risks. Multiple micronutrient supplements (MMS) promise broader nutritional benefits; however, real‐world guidance for their effective and equitable integration into routine maternal care is lacking. A qualitative study, guided by the ExpandNet scaling‐up framework, was conducted from February to March 2025, including 28 focus group discussions with antenatal care (ANC) providers and female community health volunteers (FCHVs) and 40 key informant interviews with policymakers at different levels of the health system. Data was analyzed thematically to identify perceived facilitators and barriers to MMS adoption, institutionalization, and scale‐up, and equitable implementation. Stakeholders viewed MMS as offering clear advantages over IFA, citing broader micronutrient coverage and fewer side effects that could improve adherence. However, they identified several system‐level requirements for successful scale‐up, including formal policy integration, sustainable financing, strengthened procurement and supply chains, and adequate storage capacity at facilities. FCHVs and ANC providers emphasized the need for clearer role definitions, improved training, and manageable counseling workloads. Persistent community‐level barriers—such as concerns about tablet size, misconceptions about fetal growth, and low trust in free medicines—were seen as risks to equitable uptake. Respondents highlighted community engagement, culturally tailored counseling, and consistent support for FCHVs and ANC providers as essential to ensuring effective and equitable MMS adoption. Stakeholders in Nepal view MMS as a promising strategy to improve maternal and newborn nutrition, but its potential depends on strong policy commitment, adequate and sustainable financing, and community‐centered implementation. Addressing product‐related concerns, strengthening counseling and trust in public services, and ensuring uninterrupted supply chains are essential to MMS scale‐up, including translating its introduction into equitable and meaningful gains in maternal and child nutrition.

Regional integration, resilience, and innovation

Regional integration has become a strategic objective for Africa in an era marked by global tensions, climate vulnerability, and persistent structural transformation challenges. Despite decades of regional trade agreements, intra-African trade remains limited and concentrated in a narrow range of products, reflecting shallow productive integration and high trade costs. These constraints are particularly present in agriculture, which employs nearly 60% of Africa’s labor force and plays a central role in food security, income generation, and poverty reduction (Mamboundou et al. 2026). The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a structural shift toward continent-wide deep integration, with the potential to expand intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains, and enhance economic resilience. At the same time, digital innovation and climate imperatives are reshaping the policy landscape, creating both opportunities and adjustment pressures. This chapter examines the interconnections between regional integration, resilience, and innovation in Africa, assessing the evolution and performance of regional trade integration, evaluating the projected impacts of AfCFTA implementation, and analyzing the roles of digitalization and climate-smart trade pathways in supporting inclusive and sustainable transformation. In the context of the post-MC14, the chapter contributes to ongoing debates on how regional integration can complement multilateral reform, particularly in agriculture, digital trade governance, and climate-related trade measures.

Final remarks [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade is at a crossroads. The global agricultural trading system is undergoing a transformation and, as this book has argued, the changes observed in recent years are not temporary disruptions but reflect a deeper structural shift. The system has moved away from a relatively predictable, rules-based environment toward a more fragmented setting, where trade outcomes are increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental disruptions, evolving policy instruments, and persistent structural asymmetries across countries. The erosion of predictability, the proliferating use of selective and non-MFN measures, the interaction between trade and broader geopolitical objectives, and the growing role of supply chains and logistics are redefining how agricultural trade operates.

LAC’s role in global food security and the multilateral system

This chapter argues that LAC’s contribution to global food security cannot be understood in isolation from broader debates on trade governance and multilateral cooperation. As climate pressures, geopolitical fragmentation, and market volatility increasingly intersect, the credibility of the rules-based trading system becomes a central determinant of global supply stability. In this context, LAC occupies a relevant position at the intersection of production capacity and global governance: as a major net exporter, it enhances international availability and moderates price volatility, thereby supporting affordability in food-deficit regions; yet, paradoxically, significant segments of its own population—particularly in parts of Central America and the Caribbean—still face constraints in affording a healthy diet (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2025.). This dual condition underscores that food security is multidimensional, linking availability, access, and stability. By leveraging its comparative advantages while engaging constructively in WTO-centered trade governance reform—strengthening disciplines on export restrictions, transparency, and dispute settlement—the region can safeguard its export interests and perform a structural, system-wide balancing role in promoting a more resilient, predictable, and affordable global food system.

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade lies at the heart of development, food security, and sustainability. Over the past several decades, global trade in agricultural products has grown both in volume and complexity. Trade has supported structural transformation, expanded food access, and increased incomes across regions. But in recent years, this system has become increasingly strained. Rising geopolitical tensions, recurring global shocks, and a growing disconnect between trade rules and sustainability goals have left the global trading system at a crossroads. This book is the fourth in a series of concise, policy-focused publications aimed at supporting agricultural trade reform and food systems transformation. The first volume, titled Transforming Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities, examined how shifting climate, social, and economic pressures were reshaping the region’s food systems. The second, Food Systems at a Crossroads, explored the political economy of food and agriculture in Latin America, identifying core trade-offs and opportunities for policy innovation. The third volume, The Road to MC12, provided timely analysis ahead of the 12th World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Ministerial to highlight risks of fragmentation and Latin America’s potential to contribute to a reinvigorated multilateral system. This fourth edition expands the conversation to include Africa, a region with growing importance in global agricultural trade debates. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa face distinct realities, but they also share vulnerabilities and strategic interests. Both regions have significant agricultural potential, are highly exposed to trade-related shocks, and are seeking a fairer, more inclusive trade regime. This book aims to deepen understanding of how these regions are navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape and how they can contribute to shaping the future of agricultural trade.

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation. Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.

Innovation, sustainability and the new frontier of competitiveness in the agrifood sector

The global agricultural trade landscape is experiencing a structural transition. The longstanding emphasis on volume and price is increasingly being complemented—and in some cases replaced—by value-based considerations, whereby production processes – “how” products are produced-carry weight comparable to production outputs – “what” product is produced. This evolution reflects the growing integration of sustainability, traceability, and environmental performance criteria into global value chains and market access conditions (World Bank, 2024; OECD, 2023). For Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a major contributor to global net agrifood exports, this shift represents both a challenge and an opportunity to consolidate its role as a sustainable food supplier (OECD-FAO, 2024).