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researcher spotlight

Elodie Becquey

Elodie Becquey is a Senior Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit, based in IFPRI’s West and Central Africa office in Senegal. She has over 15 years of research experience in diet, nutrition, and food security in Africa, including countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, and Tanzania.

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IFPRI Publications: Discussion Papers

Explore Our Latest Discussion Papers

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Working Paper

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi
Details

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; et al. 2025. The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2383. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178553

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Impact; Genetically Modified Organisms; Seed Damaging Insects; Pest Resistance; Cowpeas; Randomized Controlled Trials; Machine Learning; Smallholders; Information Dissemination; Yields; Postharvest Losses; Profitability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Wondale, Meseret; Korir, Josphat K.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Araya, Mesele; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Wondale, Meseret; Korir, Josphat K.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Araya, Mesele; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Wondale, Meseret; Korir, Josphat K.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Araya, Mesele; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2025. The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation? IFPRI Discussion Paper 2382. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178454

Keywords

Africa; Youth; Labour Market; Structural Adjustment; Youth Employment; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Abay, Kibrom A.; Omamo, Steven Were
Details

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Abay, Kibrom A.; Omamo, Steven Were

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Abay, Kibrom A.; and Omamo, Steven Were. 2025. Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2381. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178300

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Public Expenditure; Agriculture; Youth; Migration; Data; Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

2025
Balana, Bedru; Abba, Aminu; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Takasai, Musa Tukur; Yakasai, Bello; Abdullahi, Kabiru; Shuaibu, Ahmed Usman; Musa, Nurudden Muhammad; Kirui, Oliver K.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.
…more Ringler, Claudia
Details

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Year published

2025

Authors

Balana, Bedru; Abba, Aminu; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Takasai, Musa Tukur; Yakasai, Bello; Abdullahi, Kabiru; Shuaibu, Ahmed Usman; Musa, Nurudden Muhammad; Kirui, Oliver K.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Ringler, Claudia

Citation

Balana, Bedru; Abba, Aminu; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Takasai, Musa Tukur; Yakasai, Bello; et al. 2025. Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2380. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178299

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Irrigation; Small-scale Irrigation; Government; Financial Institutions; Irrigation Equipment; Design

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

2025Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Year published

2025

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2025. Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2379. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178193

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Trade; Tariffs; Food Security; Food Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Omamo, Steven Were
Details

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Omamo, Steven Were

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; and Omamo, Steven Were. 2025. Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2378. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178034

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Conflicts; Farm Inputs; Maize; Crop Yield; Fertilizer Application; Yield Response Factor

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

2025Balana, Bedru; Omamo, Steven Were; Amare, Mulubrhan; Popoola, Olufemi; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Loum, Serigne; Jawed, Khusro; Andam, Kwaw S.
Details

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Year published

2025

Authors

Balana, Bedru; Omamo, Steven Were; Amare, Mulubrhan; Popoola, Olufemi; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Loum, Serigne; Jawed, Khusro; Andam, Kwaw S.

Citation

Balana, Bedru; Omamo, Steven Were; Amare, Mulubrhan; Popoola, Olufemi; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; et al. 2025. Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2376. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177848

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Western Africa; Conflicts; Climate; Food Systems; Food Suppy

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

2025Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Spielman, David J.; Francis, Tara
Details

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Spielman, David J.; Francis, Tara

Citation

Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Spielman, David J.; Francis, Tara. 2025. Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2377. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177847

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Seeds; Regulations; Seed Policies; Regional Organizations; Law

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

2025Hoddinott, John F.; Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Quisumbing, Agnes R.
Details

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Year published

2025

Authors

Hoddinott, John F.; Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Quisumbing, Agnes R.

Citation

Hoddinott, John F.; Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; and Quisumbing, Agnes R. 2025. Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2375. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177816

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Southern Asia; Resilience; Shocks; Gender; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue
Details

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Thurlow, Emerta; Warner, James; and Niyonsingiza, Josue. 2025. Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2373. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177650

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Climate-smart Agriculture; Modelling; Food Systems; Agricultural Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2374. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177655

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Conflicts; Social Protection; Cash Transfers; Mobile Phones; Electronic Commerce

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania

2025Manda, Constantine; Sango, Danford; Hoffmann, Vivian; de Brauw, Alan; Zakaria, Zakayo; Temba, George; Brown, Elizabeth; Richards, Dorothy; Rashid, Said
Details

Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania

This study investigates the impact of temporary subsidies for nutrient-dense foods on the diets of low-income households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Vouchers for eggs, milk, and unflavored yogurt were provided to randomly selected households over a three-month period. The subsidies significantly increased the consumption of the targeted healthy foods while discounts were offered. These effects persisted up to 9 months after the end of the subsidy period and were accompanied by a shift in preferences for the targeted foods. Consumption of unhealthy complements, specifically sugar added to yogurt and milk, increased during the subsidy period. Finally, while poorer households initially benefited most, sustained impacts were greater among wealthier households. In sum, the findings demonstrate that subsidies for healthy foods can lead to sustained improvements in diets, while suggesting a role for accompanying interventions such as nutrition education to maximize net health benefits, and pointing to the need for ongoing support to the most vulnerable.

Year published

2025

Authors

Manda, Constantine; Sango, Danford; Hoffmann, Vivian; de Brauw, Alan; Zakaria, Zakayo; Temba, George; Brown, Elizabeth; Richards, Dorothy; Rashid, Said

Citation

Manda, Constantine; Sango, Danford; Hoffmann, Vivian; de Brauw, Alan; Zakaria, Zakayo; Temba, George; et al. 2025. Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2372. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177443

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Affordability; Consumers; Healthy Diets; Households; Less Favoured Areas; Subsidies; Urban Areas

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
Details

Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers

Trust in local leadership is critical for effective delivery of public goods and services -especially in conflict-affected and post-conflict settings, where local institutions and markets remain weak, and peacebuilding and recovery efforts are crucial. Thus, identifying avenues and instruments for rebuilding trust in local leadership remains important. Building on a recent and large-scale armed conflict in Ethiopia, we study the impact of a randomized community-based cash transfer on trust in local leadership. The randomized cash transfer was introduced after the war in Ethiopia and its implementation involved local community leaders, some of whom may have participated in the conflict. We find that exposure to armed conflict is associated with a significant deterioration in trust in local leaders, while the community-based cash transfer recovers some of the deteriorated trust. We provide suggestive evidence that the impacts of cash transfer are driven not only by those who received the cash transfer but also by non-beneficiary households in communities where the cash transfer is implemented. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effect is largely driven by poor households and households which do not benefit from government safety net programs. These results have important implications for policy design in rebuilding trust in local leadership in post-conflict and fragile settings.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; and Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum. 2025. Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2370. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177383

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Armed Conflicts; Cash Transfer; Governance; Institutions; Leaders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; Popoola, Olufemi; Loum, Serigne; Jawed, Khusro
Details

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; Popoola, Olufemi; Loum, Serigne; Jawed, Khusro

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; et al. 2025. The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2371. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Food Prices; Food Security; Households; Markets; Policy Innovation; Price Volatility

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

2025Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Abate, Gashaw T.; Colen, Liesbeth; Kramer, Berber
Details

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Year published

2025

Authors

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Abate, Gashaw T.; Colen, Liesbeth; Kramer, Berber

Citation

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Abate, Gashaw T.; Colen, Liesbeth; and Kramer, Berber. 2025. Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2369. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Uganda; Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Technology Adoption; Prices; Crops; Seeds; Costs; Agricultural Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Market Intelligence

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Policy implementation is operational

2025Omamo, Steven Were
Details

Policy implementation is operational

This paper argues that policy implementation must be understood as a fundamentally operational process, not merely the execution of policy intent. It proposes a framework centered on four core dimensions of implementation: activation cost, option value, kinetics, and negotiation. Drawing on the case of the World Food Programme’s 2008 Cash and Voucher Policy, the paper shows that implementing a policy requires building physical and institutional systems, creating delivery capacity, managing uncertainty, and preserving strategic flexibility. The case is not about cash transfers as such, but about what it took—organizationally, technically, and politically—for the World Food Programme to move from a policy decision to sustained, system wide operational capability and delivery. The paper concludes that successful policy implementation depends on treating implementation itself as the central frontier of policy action—requiring investment, learning, negotiation, and time. Several implications emerge for researchers, practitioners, and investors seeking to close the gap between policy on paper and policy in action.

Year published

2025

Authors

Omamo, Steven Were

Citation

Omamo, Steven Were. 2025. Policy implementation is operational. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2368. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Keywords

Policies; Costs; Capacity Development; Development; Implementation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

2025de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle
Details

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Year published

2025

Authors

de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle

Citation

de Brauw, Alan; and Hirvonen, Kalle. 2025. Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2367. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177229

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Capacity Development; Enterprises; Food Environment; Healthy Diets; Households; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

2025Hirvonen, Kalle; Abate, Gashaw T.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Leight, Jessica; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
Details

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Year published

2025

Authors

Hirvonen, Kalle; Abate, Gashaw T.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Leight, Jessica; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Hirvonen, Kalle; Abate, Gashaw T.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Leight, Jessica; and Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum. 2025. Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned? IFPRI Discussion Paper 2366. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176897

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa; Food Security; Livelihoods; Poverty; Social Protection; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Measuring employment and job quality in agrifood systems: Accounting for backward and forward linkages

2025Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob
Details

Measuring employment and job quality in agrifood systems: Accounting for backward and forward linkages

As the agricultural transformation associated with economic development proceeds, the economic fulcrum of the agrifood system moves from primary production to nonfarm activities, such as input supply, food processing, food services, and wholesale and retail trade. Traditional measures of farm employment and value added (or GDP) represent a shrinking share of the agrifood system’s total contribution. Better quantification is important not only to appreciate the role of agrifood system transformation in broader economic development, but also to inform policies that create more and better-quality jobs and accelerate structural transformation in developing economies. This study considers two broad approaches to measuring the agrifood sector: (1) measuring agrifood activities, and (2) exploiting the economy’s full input–output structure to measure the direct and indirect resources needed to meet final demands for agrifood products and to transform agrifood output into nonfood products such as biofuels and clothing. We apply both approaches using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and comparing their results. We then use the input–output approach to estimate the employment generated by the agrifood sector, including employment in backward and forward linkages. The findings suggest that the input–output approach provides a more comprehensive assessment, with the agrifood sector generating 15.2 percent (near one-sixth) of global GDP and one-third of global employment. The findings further show that the off-farm segments of the agrifood system provide better-quality jobs than the farm segments, particularly for women. These findings provide insights on the potential for improving welfare and reducing poverty and inequality through agrifood system transformation.

Year published

2025

Authors

Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob

Citation

Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; and Vos, Rob. 2025. Measuring employment and job quality in agrifood systems: Accounting for backward and forward linkages. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2365. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176871

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Economic Development; Employment; Gender Inequality; Input Output Analysis; Gross National Product; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game

2025Allen IV, James; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Rakshit, Deboleena
Details

Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game

We study conditional cooperation using a field-adapted conditional contributions game in rural Mozambique, eliciting community members’ willingness to contribute to a new public program conditional on how many others contribute. While past studies suggest most people are conditional cooperators (contributing more as others do), most of our sample (57%) are undefined by standard classifications. Instead, our sample’s most common types are largely absent from the literature: counter conditional cooperators (contributing less as others do) and v-shaped cooperators, both for monetary donations (30% and 19%) and volunteering (35% and 12%). Our findings motivate future research in both non-laboratory and low-income settings.

Year published

2025

Authors

Allen IV, James; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Rakshit, Deboleena

Citation

Allen IV, James; Karachiwalla, Naureen; and Rakshit, Deboleena. 2025. Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2364. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176850

Country/Region

Mozambique

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Cooperation; Low Income Groups; Poverty; School Feeding

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty

2025Resnick, Danielle; Diatta, Ampa Dogui
Details

Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty

Senegal long has been committed to large-scale food fortification (LSFF), especially for salt, edible oil, and wheat flour, bolstered by a set of multi-sectoral nutrition strategies and institutional coordinating mechanisms. Yet, due to recent macroeconomic pressures and reductions in donor funding, the country is at a crossroads, revealing key gaps in the sustainability of its current LSFF program even as new vehicles, such as rice and bouillon, are emerging on the fortification policy agenda. Based on interviews with over two dozen public, private, and civil society sector actors, we utilize the Political Economy Diagnostic of Large Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) to highlight strengths of the Senegalese LSFF program and weaknesses that need to be prioritized. Among the latter include the stalled financing for the national fortification alliance, known as COSFAM, insufficient testing materials and laboratories, and rising costs of premix and raw materials. Several innovations were promoted by respondents to address some of these challenges, including either the decentralization or regionalization of laboratory capabilities, a central buying center for premixes, and online data platforms to track compliance. By reflecting on Senegal’s long experience and current challenges with scaling its fortification efforts, the analysis provides useful insights to countries with more nascent fortification programs about the prerequisites for ensuring LSFF sustainability.

Year published

2025

Authors

Resnick, Danielle; Diatta, Ampa Dogui

Citation

Resnick, Danielle; and Diatta, Ampa Dogui. 2025. Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2363. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176702

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Food Fortification; Nutrition; Political Aspects; Policies; Funding; Innovation; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures

2025Martin, Will; Nia, Reza; Vos, Rob
Details

Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures

Agricultural yield shocks are frequently correlated across countries and much of the recent literature concludes that both the volatility of shocks and the extent of correlations across countries are likely to increase substantially with climate change. Given this background, it seems important to consider the potential impacts of large, synchronized yield shocks in both developing and developed countries. These shocks are examined using IFPRI’s MIRAGRODEP model and the linked POVANA household models to assess the impacts on real incomes, food prices, poverty and food insecurity. The results of a 25% reduction in productivity in South Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa are compared with a similar productivity reduction in Europe and North America. The results make clear that the adverse impacts on global poverty and food security are much more severe when the shock originates in developing countries. The results point to a need for quite different policy responses in the case of a multiple breadbasket failure arising in the global south, rather than—like the three most recent food crises—in the global north.

Year published

2025

Authors

Martin, Will; Nia, Reza; Vos, Rob

Citation

Martin, Will; Nia, Reza; and Vos, Rob. 2025. Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2360. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176642

Keywords

Agriculture; Climate Change; Crop Yield; Developing Countries; Extreme Weather Events; Food Security; Poverty; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The future of food demand: A global meta-analysis and projections of income and price elasticities

2025Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; Ecker, Olivier
Details

The future of food demand: A global meta-analysis and projections of income and price elasticities

Understanding how food demand responds to household income and price changes is essential for anticipating global food needs and designing effective food policies. Yet existing elasticity estimates vary widely due to differences in data, estimation methods, and study settings. This study aims to assess how empirical choices influence elasticity values and examine theory-based predictions related to income growth and inequality, urbanization, and demographic change. It provides the most comprehensive global systematic literature review and meta-analysis of income and price elasticities to date, compiling over 13,000 elasticity estimates from 215 peer-reviewed studies published between 1974 and 2022. We estimate two-level random effects meta-regressions and use the results to generate predicted elasticities for nine food groups by world region. While most data and methodological choices have little effect on price elasticity estimates, income elasticities are influenced by factors such as demand model type, use of conditional specifications, and the choice of expenditure measure. We find empirical support for Engel’s Law but only partial support for Bennett’s Law. Income elasticities are positively associated with urbanization, particularly in lower-income countries, and negatively associated with population aging. By projecting income elasticities through 2050 under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we show that ignoring structural shifts in sociodemographics can yield meaningfully different estimates of future food demand.

Year published

2025

Authors

Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; Ecker, Olivier

Citation

Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; and Ecker, Olivier. 2025. The future of food demand: A global meta-analysis and projections of income and price elasticities. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2361. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176595

Keywords

Systematic Reviews; Forecasting; Meta-analysis; Prices; Elasticities

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review

2025Eissler, Sarah; Bryan, Elizabeth
Details

Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review

Often-cited studies show that when women influence or control household spending decisions, they tend to spend in ways that improve the welfare of their household. However, these studies are decades old, and the most recent review of this evidence was published over a decade ago (see Doss 2013). We present a rapid review of this literature since 2013 on women’s relative bargaining power over household resource allocation and its relationship with key well-being outcomes. Specifically, we review the evidence to answer the following questions: 1) Does women’s control over income within the household influence household expenditure patterns?; 2) Does the source of women’s income matter for spending decisions?; and 3) Does the amount of women’s income matter for spending decisions? We employ a rapid review approach to identify research published since 2013 that focuses on how women who have influence or control over spending decisions allocate those resources and associations with well-being outcomes. Utilizing key search terms and clear selection criteria, we identified 46 papers. Most studies represent sub-Saharan Africa. They employed a range of methods and represented a mix of observational and experimental (or quasi-experimental) designs. Most studies did not specify the source of income, but we did identify those focused on income from agricultural or off-farm activities, remittances, and cash transfers. Our review of the literature since 2013 has generally found evidence that is consistent with the research prior to 2013, but more convincing as there has been an increase in causal evidence published. Compared to men, women prioritize spending on investments in children, their education, food – including more diverse and nutrient-dense foods – and on healthcare regardless of income source. Overall, women’s influence over resource allocation decisions tend to promote equitable distribution of money to boy and girl children. We see mixed results around how women prioritize investing in savings compared to men; several studies indicated women prioritize savings more than men but do so for different reasons, although one study in a matrilineal society indicated that women prioritize food budgets at the expense of building savings. And finally, there is consistent evidence that the share of household budgets spent on adult goods or vices (primarily alcohol and tobacco) reduces when women have higher relative bargaining power over how these resources are allocated. Few studies considered how the amount of money influenced women’s ability to allocate it, suggesting that women may be able to influence spending over smaller amounts of resources compared to larger expenditures. To address gaps identified in the literature, future studies could look across income from different sources to understand whether women have greater influence or control over certain income streams compared to others, or how the source of income may influence how the money is allocated. They could also explore the relative amount of income women can control and how women’s control over income fluctuates as total household income changes. We recommend a systematic evidence review to assess the different levers influencing women’s relative bargaining power over resource allocation within a household and understanding the outcomes of women’s bargaining power.

Year published

2025

Authors

Eissler, Sarah; Bryan, Elizabeth

Citation

Eissler, Sarah; and Bryan, Elizabeth. 2025. Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2362. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176630

Keywords

Decision Making; Households; Income; Women; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

2025Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Abdelaziz, Fatma; and Abay, Kibrom A. 2025. Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2359. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176520

Country/Region

Egypt

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Digital Literacy; Training; Digital Agriculture; Smallholders; Technology Adoption

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

2025Leight, Jessica; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily
Details

The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations can significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and in some contexts these adverse effects may be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within a 12-month period are associated with reduced household consumption (driven by reduced consumption of own-produced food). Moreover, when these fluctuations are observed in the first year of a child’s life, they lead to a reduction in height forage and weight-for-age (though no shift in stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls: boys seem to be protected from the adverse effects of rainfall fluctuations experienced in infancy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Leight, Jessica; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily

Citation

Leight, Jessica; Mukerjee, Rishabh; and Schmidt, Emily. 2025. The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2358. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176517

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Anthropometry; Children; Households; Less Favoured Areas; Rainfall Patterns; Child Stunting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

2025
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Ma, Ning; Cole, Steven; Ebrahim, Mohammed; Desta, Gizaw; Mersha, Abiro Tigabie; Mudereri, Bester; Kihiu, Evelyne; Kreye, Christine
…more Peter, Hellen
Details

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Ma, Ning; Cole, Steven; Ebrahim, Mohammed; Desta, Gizaw; Mersha, Abiro Tigabie; Mudereri, Bester; Kihiu, Evelyne; Kreye, Christine; Peter, Hellen

Citation

Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Ma, Ning; Cole, Steven; Ebrahim, Mohammed; Desta, Gizaw; et al. 2025. Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2357. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176542

Country/Region

Ethiopia; Nigeria; Rwanda

Keywords

Congo, Democratic Republic of; Africa; Eastern Africa; West and Central Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Development; Gender; Livelihoods; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Excellence in Agronomy

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

2025Leight, Jessica; Hirvonen, Kalle; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Rakshit, Deboleena
Details

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

While the population of internally displaced people around the world continues to grow, evidence around strategies to sustainably enhance livelihoods among IDPs remains extremely limited. We present findings from a randomized trial of an ultra-poor graduation program targeting IDPs in urban Baidoa, Somalia; the intervention pro-vided cash transfers, an asset transfer or technical training program, and facilitated savings groups. Our findings suggest that two years following program launch, the intervention has led to significant increases in consumption, assets, and savings; however, these effects seem to be driven almost exclusively by increased livestock production. An exploration of heterogeneous effect using generalized random forest methods further suggests that the positive effects of the treatment are dramatically larger for smaller households characterized by lower dependency ratios.

Year published

2025

Authors

Leight, Jessica; Hirvonen, Kalle; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Rakshit, Deboleena

Citation

Leight, Jessica; Hirvonen, Kalle; Karachiwalla, Naureen; and Rakshit, Deboleena. 2025. Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2356. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176389

Country/Region

Somalia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Development; Internally Displaced Persons; Livelihoods; Livestock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

2025Srivastava, Nandita; Hema, Aboubacar; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Ulimwengu, John M.; Benin, Samuel
Details

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

Niger faces rampant food insecurity, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. The transformation of food systems to tackle such challenges hinges on the capacity and effectiveness of institutional frameworks. To analyze the status, challenges, and strengths of Niger’s food system, a mapping and capacity needs assessment was conducted at three levels—enabling environment, institutional, and individual. Based on the assessment, leadership concerns on strategic guidance were observed at the policy process level, with major issues such as the incidence of corruption, infrastructure constraints, and lack of reliable data availability. At the institutional level, lack of an interconnected network and mutual accountability, resource and funding constraints, and high staff turnover have adversely impacted overall institutional performance. Availability of reliable data evidence is limited or absent due to weak monitoring and evaluation systems and decentralized capacity, lack of sufficient local support, transparency issues in strategy development, and selection bias. At the individual level, there is a need to improve technical capacity on analytical thinking, quantitative and qualitative research tools, and the dissemination of communication, outreach, and information. Despite the climate change-related challenges in the country, there is less focus on environmental management, adaptation, and advanced technology implementation. The underrepresentation of key areas such as socio-cultural dynamics, governance, social protection, and cross sectoral collaboration indicates a potential lack of integration in policymaking and implementation. Overall, there is an urgent need to reallocate resources to enhance the focus on underrepresented yet critical food systems areas, enhance inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral collaboration to ensure a more integrated approach to food systems management, and incorporate social inclusion and equity considerations. Forward-looking strategies should be developed that anticipate and respond to emerging challenges such as demographic shifts, globalization effects, and technological changes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Srivastava, Nandita; Hema, Aboubacar; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Ulimwengu, John M.; Benin, Samuel

Citation

Srivastava, Nandita; Hema, Aboubacar; Babu, Suresh; Ulimwengu, John M.; and Benin, Samuel. 2025. Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2355. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176348

Country/Region

Niger

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Food Systems; Food Insecurity; Malnutrition; Capacity Assessment; Environmental Degradation; Governance; Institutions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

On the points of failure and entry in global food systems

2025Ulimwengu, John M.
Details

On the points of failure and entry in global food systems

This study develops a dual-framework for identifying points of failure (PFs) and points of entry (PEs) in global food systems. Building on Schneider et al. (2025), we extend their entry-point analysis by introducing PFs—nodes where systemic risk concentrates. Using dynamic systems modeling and directed network analysis of 50 indicators from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, we derive PF and PE indexes based on structural metrics from the adjacency matrix. While empirically grounded in network topology, the model accommodates behavioral lags and policy sensitivity. Findings reveal that high-risk and high-leverage components often overlap, enabling more strategic and adaptive interventions. Designing interventions without understanding fragility would be akin to engineering a machine for acceleration while ignoring its weakest links.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M. 2025. On the points of failure and entry in global food systems. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2353. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176309

Keywords

Diet; Dynamics; Food Systems; Malnutrition; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria

2025Kyle, Jordan; Ragasa, Catherine
Details

Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria

Women’s leadership in policy processes and formal institutions is a powerful pathway to gender equality and women’s empowerment at scale, yet relatively little is known about how key decision-makers who influence access to these positions perceive women’s leadership and how those perceptions can shift. This paper draws on original survey data from 407 elites from 274 agrifood organizations in India and Nigeria to examine elite gender attitudes, their responsiveness to framing interventions, and how these attitudes relate to support for policies promoting gender equality. Specifically, we ask: how do elites in agrifood governance perceive women’s leadership, and how responsive are these perceptions to a targeted framing intervention? We find that elites are substantially more supportive of women’s leadership than the general public in the same countries, yet male elites in particular still express strong endorsement of the idea that men make better leaders. Over half of male elites in our sample in both countries agree that men make better political leaders. A randomized framing experiment embedded in the survey shows that men’s attitudes toward women’s leadership are significantly influenced by how women’s capabilities are framed. Messages emphasizing women’s equal rights and capabilities reduce male elites’ support for gender-unequal statements compared to frames that ask individuals to reject the idea of male superiority. Female elites’ attitudes are more supportive overall and unaffected by framing. These findings suggest that gender messaging strategies should center on positive, equality-based frames, and that elite attitudes are critical to scaling women’s leadership in agrifood governance.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kyle, Jordan; Ragasa, Catherine

Citation

Kyle, Jordan; and Ragasa, Catherine. 2025. Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2354. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176312

Country/Region

India; Nigeria

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Gender Equality; Governance; Leadership; Policy Innovation; Surveys; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

2025Ndegwa, Michael K.; Ward, Patrick S.; Shee, Apurba; You, Liangzhi
Details

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ndegwa, Michael K.; Ward, Patrick S.; Shee, Apurba; You, Liangzhi

Citation

Ndegwa, Michael K.; Ward, Patrick S.; Shee, Apurba; and You, Liangzhi. 2025. Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2351. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175990

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Credit; Food Security; Insurance; Resilience; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

2025Eissler, Sarah; Bryan, Elizabeth; Magalhaes, Marilia
Details

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are important development goals for their intrinsic value as well as for achieving other important wellbeing outcomes, such as improved health, nutrition, and food security. Agricultural research for development plays an important role in understanding gender relations, dynamics, and inequalities and in identifying effective strategies and interventions to achieve these goals. The Feed the Future Innovation Labs (ILs) were initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and led by U.S. universities, in partnership with international and national research institutes, with the aim to achieve poverty reduction, food security, nutrition, and resilience objectives. The ILs also aimed to facilitate women’s empowerment and address gender inequality in agri-food systems (AFS). This study aims to document, categorize, and identify learnings from gender-related research produced by the ILs through an extensive desk review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with gender focal points, researchers, and directors at the ILs. While recognizing the importance of capacity building for gender-related research, we only look at research products and do not review capacity building or other training materials for gender-related research produced by the ILs. As this study is focused on understanding gender-related learnings, we also do not include gender-blind research products produced by the ILs. Based on the final set of research outputs that have at least some focus on gender, we then analyze the gender-related research findings using the reach, benefit, empower, and transform framework. In addition, we also explore the factors that enabled ILs to prioritize and produce gender-related research and learnings. We draw lessons about the types of research studies that have been carried out under the ILs and the insights that can be gleaned from these studies for designing agricultural innovations and interventions and understanding what works to address gender inequalities in agrifood systems. Much of this work was gender focused and diagnostic or formative. Fewer research studies employed causal methods to understand how interventions are influencing gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Only a subset of research focused on specific innovations or interventions, which suggests more research is needed in this area, particularly as new innovations are being tested and scaled, as was the objective of many of the ILs. We highlight areas where additional research is needed to inform investments and interventions going forward, such as an increase in integrating gender-informed approaches in research across disciplines, gender-related research that employs causal methods, and in understanding the impacts of interventions that are gender-transformative. Finally, we identify key enabling factors that helped ILs prioritize gender integration, such as institutional leadership’s support for gender integration, sufficient time and budgets earmarked for gender work and staff, and ensuring staff responsible for gender-related research have requisite skills, expertise, and communication skills to work across interdisciplinary teams. Current and future agricultural research for development projects should prioritize gender-related research across their portfolios to strengthen attention to understanding how innovations and interventions can influence gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture.

Year published

2025

Authors

Eissler, Sarah; Bryan, Elizabeth; Magalhaes, Marilia

Citation

Eissler, Sarah; Bryan, Elizabeth; and Magalhaes, Marilia. 2025. Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2352. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175991

Keywords

Agricultural Research; Gender Equality; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives

2025Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Zandstra, Tamsin
Details

Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives

Improving food systems requires significant expenditures and investments from both the public and private sector. In the case of public outlays, the decisions are taken by the government or by multilateral international organizations (with governments as their owners), while, obviously, private expenditures and investments depend on choices by the private sector. These private financial flows are guided by the decisions of consumers, producers, banking system institutions, and operators in capital markets. Public policy cannot dictate directly how those private actors act (for instance, governments cannot mandate that consumers must eat healthy diets), but it can influence those decisions through adequate macroeconomic, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. This discussion paper will focus briefly on some ideas about how those frameworks can reorient and expand current levels of funding towards food systems transformation, focusing particularly on banking systems and capital markets. First, it briefly analyzes the levels of financial flows in the banking system and capital markets. Then it looks at the role of macroeconomic policy in influencing the operations of food systems, followed by suggestions about other regulatory and incentive frameworks to create healthy, equitable, sustainable and climate-resilient food systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Zandstra, Tamsin

Citation

Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; and Zandstra, Tamsin. 2025. Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2349. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175792

Keywords

Banking; Capital Markets; Financing; Food Systems; Economic Systems; Macroeconomics; Regulations; Incentives

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis

2025Sharma, Kriti; Kumar, Anjani; Agrawal, R.C.
Details

Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis

Farmers in India continue to be deprived of adequate and timely institutional credit. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in 1998, sought to address this issue by providing credit support under a single window with simplified procedure. Using a panel data of 2,586 farming households from five states in Eastern India, namely, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal in 2018 and 2023, we examine the determinants of access to KCC and its credit limit. We also analyze the impact of KCC on farmers’ input usage, dependence on moneylenders and farm income using propensity score weighted fixed effects model which controls for selection bias and unobservable time-invariant heterogeneities. We find that farmers’ participation in agricultural training, demonstrations and development programs encourage farmers to adopt KCC. Furthermore, KCC access increases farmers’ input usage and reduces their dependence on money lenders. This evidence comes from an economically challenged region whose economy significantly depends on agriculture. The findings of the study raise concerns over the limited penetration of the scheme among smaller-scale farmers and provide key insights into the underlying issues hindering the efficacious functioning of the scheme.

Year published

2025

Authors

Sharma, Kriti; Kumar, Anjani; Agrawal, R.C.

Citation

Sharma, Kriti; Kumar, Anjani; and Agrawal, R.C. 2025. Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2350. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175793

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agricultural Training; Credit; Smallholders; Input Output Analysis

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Development readiness

2025Omamo, Steven Were
Details

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Year published

2025

Authors

Omamo, Steven Were

Citation

Omamo, Steven Were. 2025. Development readiness. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2348. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175784

Keywords

Africa; Economic Development; Development Policies; Governance; Innovation; Kinetics; Negotiation; Investment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

2025Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte
Details

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members.

Year published

2025

Authors

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte

Citation

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; and Teirlinck, Charlotte. 2025. Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2347. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175568

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Migration; Gender; Households; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

2025Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; Fall, Fatou
Details

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; Fall, Fatou

Citation

Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; and Fall, Fatou. 2025. Does others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2346. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175569

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Food Safety; Health; Groundnuts; Aflatoxins; Smallholders; Returns

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

2025Castillo, José Gabriel; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

Preferences play a key role in decision-making and are generally assumed as time-invariant in economic modeling despite the mixed empirical evidence. We examine the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock. We employ a unique longitudinal dataset comprising 1,262 smallholder households, based on interviews with household heads conducted across four survey waves between 2019 and 2022. We find a temporal, two-year shift in risk tolerance, while interpersonal trust and generosity perceptions show a sustained deterioration over three years. We explore possible variations by household characteristics and the degree of exposure to the virus, self-confinement, and extreme weather events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Castillo, José Gabriel; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Castillo, José Gabriel; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2345. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175452

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Americas; Central America; Covid-19; Decision Making; Extreme Weather Events; Risk; Rural Areas; Stability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

2025Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Place, Frank
Details

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Year published

2025

Authors

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Place, Frank

Citation

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; and Place, Frank. 2025. Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR research initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2344. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175411

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Agricultural Innovation; Food Systems; Impact Assessment; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

2025Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; Mishra, Abhijeet
Details

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

Food systems face dire challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource overuse. To ensure their long-term sustainability and resilience they need urgent transformation, while continuing to support livelihoods and address rising food insecurity. The design and management of multifunctional agricultural landscapes offer a pathway to address these challenges; and improved understanding of landscape complexity, including a diverse mix of natural and cropland covers, can help advance achievement of multiple food system goals. As land managers and decision makers plan for the future of our landscapes, they need to recognize that powerful forces outside their control will have a strong influence on the final outcome. This study explores the interplay between global drivers—such as population growth, economic trends, climate change—and landscape complexity, using a modeling system linking a global agricultural economic model to a land-use model. Global trends are described, and Kenya serves as a case study, representing broader local dynamics. Results indicate that the majority of agricultural landscapes, globally and in Kenya, are projected to experience increased complexity by 2050, primarily through cropland expansion at the expense of natural habitats. However, there are a few instances where an expansion in cropland may be liked to a decrease in landscape complexity. Patterns also vary under alternative scenarios of agricultural development. Where greater complexity is achieved through policies that further concentrate agricultural land in some areas, this is mainly associated with net gains in natural habitats and a contraction of cropland. Overall, this preliminary research underscores the need for integrated landscape management and more comprehensive scenarios to inform sustainable land-use planning aligned with global food security and environmental objectives.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; Mishra, Abhijeet

Citation

Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; and Mishra, Abhijeet. 2025. Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2343. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175363

Keywords

Landscape; Socioeconomics; Climate Change; Agricultural Policies; Land-use Change; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

2025Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Benfica, Rui
Details

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

This study investigates the living income gap among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. It uses detailed survey data collected from coffee farmers organized in cooperatives and from coffee farm workers in Nyeri and Murang’a counties. Our analysis finds that coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark, with the gap being particularly severe in Murang’a and among those with smaller landholdings. Sensitivity analyses show that enhancing prices paid to farmers and improving yields can partially reduce the income shortfall. For instance, doubling both parameters, especially when coupled with a 50 percent increase in farmers’ non-coffee income, lowers the incidence of households below the benchmark from more than 90 percent to about 67 percent. Yet, even under these relatively optimal conditions, the persistence of a significant gap underscores deep structural constraints in the local economy. Policy recommendations therefore call for a multidimensional approach that improves production efficiency, improves and stabilizes prices, promotes income diversification, and strengthens institutional support.

Year published

2025

Authors

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Benfica, Rui

Citation

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; and Benfica, Rui. 2025. Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2342. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175180

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Coffee; Diversification; Smallholders; Poverty; Productivity; Income Distribution; Living Standards

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon; Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; Thurlow, James
Details

Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan

This paper presents a model-based and data-driven analysis of alternative public investment options for Tajikistan’s agrifood system based on cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes. The study indicates that there is no single intervention that is the most cost-effective across all economic and social outcomes, including agrifood GDP growth, job creation, poverty reduction, lowered undernourishment, and improvement in diet quality. Irrigation infrastructure development, R&D in husbandry, and food loss and waste reduction are the most cost-effective investments in the combined economic outcomes, including growth and jobs. In contrast, irrigation, food loss and waste reduction, and seed systems are more effective in the combined social outcomes, including poverty, undernourishment, and diet. Considering time horizons, extension services are more effective in the short run, while irrigation and R&D deliver greater impact over time. Sector variations in the magnitude of effects are also observed among investment interventions. Overall, comparisons across development outcomes, sectoral focus, and timeframes reveal important synergies and trade-offs, underscoring the need for evidence-based tools to guide effective policy and investment decisions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon; Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; Thurlow, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon; Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2341. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175060

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Public Investment; Agrifood Systems; Development; Economic Impact

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan

2025Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila
Details

Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan

Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel Brigitte; Akramov, Kamiljon; and Ergasheva, Tanzila. 2025. Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2340. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175059

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Climate Change; Shock; Migration; Extreme Weather Events; Agriculture; Food Security

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Measuring agrifood systems: New indicators and global estimates

2025Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Jiang, Shiyun; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee
Details

Measuring agrifood systems: New indicators and global estimates

Transformation of the agrifood system is a cornerstone of many governments’ national development plans. This reflects the importance of agrifood systems for the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor populations as well as the continued strong association of agricultural transformation with longer-term economic development and structural change. Agrifood transformation is also key to healthier diets and more sustainable production systems. However, adopting an agrifood system perspective is not trivial—it requires looking “beyond agriculture” when prioritizing policies and tracking outcomes by also considering upstream and downstream agrifood-related activities, such as agro-processing and food distribution. Measuring transformation therefore requires economywide data and innovative metrics. This study introduces two such metrics: AgGDP+, which captures the total value-added across the on- and off-farm sectors of the agrifood system, and AgEMP+, which reflects the employment generated across its various components. It further explains how consistent estimates of AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ were produced for 211 and 186 countries, respectively, over the period between 2000 and 2021, and demonstrates how this Agri-Food System Dashboard—a publicly available resource—can be used to monitor transformation, prioritize investments, and better understand the evolving role of agrifood systems in national economies or at regional or global scales.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Jiang, Shiyun; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee

Citation

Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Jiang, Shiyun; Pauw, Karl; and Randriamamonjy, Josee. 2025. Measuring agrifood systems: New indicators and global estimates. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2339. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174848

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Economic Development; Investment; Livelihoods; Healthy Diets; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

2025Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2338. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174711

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Energy Policies; Food Security; Health; Households; Socioeconomics; Water; Water Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization

2025Resnick, Danielle
Details

The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization

For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Resnick, Danielle

Citation

Resnick, Danielle. 2025. The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2337. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174593

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Food Fortification; Nutrition; Nutrition Policies; Micronutrient Deficiencies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems

2025Vos, Rob; Martin, Will
Details

Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems

Food systems generate about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Without reducing them, it will not be possible to stabilize the climate and keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5 oC from pre-industrial levels. About 50 percent of agricultural emissions (in CO2eq) come from methane, a super potent GHG, mostly from livestock production and rice cultivation. We consider six broad potential approaches to reducing emissions from agriculture—emission taxes; repurposing of farm support; regulations and conditionality; investing in green innovations; emission reduction credits, and demand-side interventions. We find that carbon taxes on most agricultural production emissions are likely much less effective than for emissions from combustion. Simple rearrangement or reduction of agricultural support will have only small impacts in terms of improving human and planetary health. By contrast, repurposing agricultural support towards R&D on sustainable agricultural intensification could generate major efficiency gains, sharply reduce emissions and improve food security. Regulatory approaches, including conditionality and payment for environmental services (PES) can be counterproductive if they lower yields and require expansion of agricultural land use. The potential benefits of emission reduction credits are greatly diminished by challenges in defining their baselines. Demand interventions designed to contribute both to environmental goals and improvements in health outcomes may also play a supporting role. Since multiple sustainable development goals are to be achieved, no single instrument by itself will be effective. Instead, multiple policy instruments will need to be bundled and targeted to create synergies and address trade-offs.

Year published

2025

Authors

Vos, Rob; Martin, Will

Citation

Vos, Rob; and Martin, Will. 2025. Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2336. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174515

Keywords

Climate Change Mitigation; Agriculture; Food Security; Agricultural Policies; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

2025Magalhaes, Marilia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Nyukuri, Elvin; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arifin
Details

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.

Year published

2025

Authors

Magalhaes, Marilia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Nyukuri, Elvin; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arifin

Citation

Magalhaes, Marilia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Nyukuri, Elvin; and Choudhury, Zahid ul Arifin. 2025. Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2335. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174475

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate Change; Gender; Nutrition; Stakeholders; Policies; Impact

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

2025Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio
Details

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.

Year published

2025

Authors

Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio

Citation

Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; and Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio. 2025. Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2334. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174327

Country/Region

Honduras

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Central America; Maize; Yields; Impact Assessment; Agriculture; Data; Capacity Building; Machine Learning; Parametric Programming; Herbicide Resistance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

2025Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash
Details

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; and Kishore, Avinash. 2025. Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2332. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174101

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Fertilizers; Inputs; Machine Learning; Potassium

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment

2025Ceballos, Francisco; Aguilar, Francisco; de Brauw, Alan; Nguyen, Trang; van den Berg, Marrit
Details

Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment

Concurrent with its rapid economic growth, Viet Nam has been experiencing a food systems transformation. Broad changes in the food environment have been a key part of this transition. While the availability of processed food is ubiquitous, the food environment continues to be largely dominated by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). So, to build strategies to improve the availability and affordability of healthy foods, MSMEs are a key entry point. In this paper, we use primary survey data to separate key sources of variation in MSMEs’ organizational dimensions and business practices by type of outlet, rural-urban location, and gender of the owners. We focus on outcomes related to employment, food sources, business finance, good business practices, and nutrition knowledge and attitudes. We find limited differences in this set of outcomes in terms of whether an outlet is located in a rural, peri-urban, or urban area, or in terms of the gender of its owners. Instead, most of the variation in outcomes can be linked to the type of outlet, raising specific types of outlets as a key focus when seeking to foster the supply of healthier foods in the food environment.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Aguilar, Francisco; de Brauw, Alan; Nguyen, Trang; van den Berg, Marrit

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Aguilar, Francisco; de Brauw, Alan; Nguyen, Trang; and van den Berg, Marrit. 2025. Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2333. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174099

Country/Region

Vietnam

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Enterprises; Food Environment; Food Systems; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

2025Gupta, Manavi; Kishore, Avinash
Details

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India’s economy continues to grow.

Year published

2025

Authors

Gupta, Manavi; Kishore, Avinash

Citation

Gupta, Manavi; and Kishore, Avinash. 2025. Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2330. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173891

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Agricultural Transformation; Agrifood Systems; Military Operations; Politics; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

2025Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2329. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Agrifood Systems; Diet; Economic Growth; Poverty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

2025Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Year published

2025

Authors

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver Kiptoo; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2328. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173517

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Agricultural Transformation; Food Systems; Military Operations; Political Aspects; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

2025Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; Abate, Gashaw T.
Details

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.

Year published

2025

Authors

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; Abate, Gashaw T.

Citation

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; and Abate, Gashaw T. 2025. Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2331. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173943

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Technology Adoption; Consumption; Cooking; Maize

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

2025Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Fang, Peixun; Mukerjee, Rishabh
Details

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets. The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes. The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment. Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Fang, Peixun; Mukerjee, Rishabh

Citation

Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Fang, Peixun; and Mukerjee, Rishabh. 2025. Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2326. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173408

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Expenditure; Households; Income; Poverty; Nutrition; Surveys; Household Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

2025Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian
Details

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

This item is currently unavailable due to an in-process journal submission. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian

Citation

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; and Safi, Wendy. 2025. ‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2327. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173423

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Ecosystems; Forest Governance; Households; Payment Agreements; Willingness to Pay

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

2025Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh
Details

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.

Year published

2025

Authors

Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh

Citation

Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; and Ajmani, Manmeet Singh. 2025. Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2325. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/170111

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Income; Agrifood Systems; Value Added; Value Chains; Employment; Labour Productivity; Data; Women; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

2025Gupta, Shweta; Kishore, Avinash; Burton, Michael
Details

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Gupta, Shweta; Kishore, Avinash; Burton, Michael

Citation

Gupta, Shweta; Kishore, Avinash; and Burton, Michael. 2025. Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2324. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169687

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Advisory Officers; Farmers; Scientists; Stakeholders; Wheat

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

2024Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John
Details

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP’s impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program’s potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John

Citation

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; and Olwande, John. 2024. Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2306. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Subsidies; Fertilizers; Resilience; Supply Chain Disruptions; Supply Chains; Global Value Chains; Maize; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

2024Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer
Details

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer

Citation

Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; et al. 2024. Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2308. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168643

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Public Works; Public Investment; Watershed Management; Small-scale Irrigation; Nutrition; Resilience; Social Safety Nets; Food Security

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

2024Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2024. Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2307. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168640

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Armed Conflicts; Climate Change; Weather Hazards; Inputs

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation

2024Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B.
Details

How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation

The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.

Year published

2024

Authors

Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B.

Citation

Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; and Barrett, Christopher B. 2024. How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2311. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168646

Keywords

Food Systems; Agricultural Development; Gender Gap; Input Output Analysis; Labour; Agricultural Value Chains; Employment; Structural Adjustment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

2024Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Gautam, Aditi
Details

Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

Despite significant improvements in poverty and standard of living over the last two decades, India continues to face challenges, including slow improvements in health and nutrition indicators and in aspects of women’s empowerment and in generating opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, climate-related events are increasing in frequency with associated risks. Women and other marginalized populations are often at greater risk from these events due to their relatively lower access to resources, lower mobility and greater dependence on common property resources. Social protection can be an effective instrument to promote resilience. One such large social protection program with significant potential is India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, or the MGNREGA, one of the largest public works programs in the world. This report provides insights from four case studies linked to the MGNREGA and implemented under the Indo-German Enhancing Rural Resilience through Appropriate Development Actions, or ERADA project. ERADA was implemented in 8 blocks of 4 large Indian states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The ERADA project had three broad objectives – of enhancing natural capital, green recovery through green enterprises, and convergence of resources and networks – and identified the MGNREGA as a critical social safety net on which to base its activities. While much has been written on the impact of the MGNREGA on “first-order” outcomes such as wages, employment, rural-urban distress migration and other household welfare outcomes, we know considerably less about the use of the assets created under the program, and even less about the potential of these assets to support and sustain value chain activities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Gautam, Aditi

Citation

Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; and Gautam, Aditi. 2024. Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2318. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169341

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Public Works; Sustainability; Resilience; Livelihoods; Social Protection; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Gender Equality

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

2024Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Sharma, Aanshi; Basu, Sampurna; Najjar, Dina
Details

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Sharma, Aanshi; Basu, Sampurna; Najjar, Dina

Citation

Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Sharma, Aanshi; et al. 2024. Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2313. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168968

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Women’s Empowerment; Gender; Agrifood Systems; Governance; Policies; Measurement

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Gender Equality

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Bias alleviation and value activation in citizens’ juries: Enhancing deliberation and civic engagement in sustainable food systems

2024Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, Björn
Details

Bias alleviation and value activation in citizens’ juries: Enhancing deliberation and civic engagement in sustainable food systems

Citizens’ Juries (CJs) are increasingly implemented as a means to engage citizens in deliberation on complex policy challenges, yet their effectiveness can be undermined by cognitive biases and limited value-driven reasoning. This study evaluates the impact of bias alleviation and value activation exercises on deliberative quality and civic engagement in four CJs conducted in Bogotá, Colombia. Two juries incorporated these exercises as treatment interventions, and two served as controls with extended deliberation time. Results reveal that deliberation itself modestly reduced confirmation bias compared to non-participants, while the structured interventions enhanced participants’ awareness of biases and value-based reasoning. However, the interventions did not significantly reduce the occurrence of biases and led to a perceived trade-off with deliberation time. Participation in CJs also showed improved trust in science and political self-efficacy, demonstrating their potential to foster civic engagement. These findings highlight the nuanced benefits and limitations of integrating debiasing interventions into mini-publics to enhance deliberative quality and equity in policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, Björn

Citation

Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; and Vollan, Björn. 2024. Bias alleviation and value activation in citizens’ juries: Enhancing deliberation and civic engagement in sustainable food systems. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2320. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169372

Country/Region

Colombia

Keywords

Americas; South America; Democracy; Environmental Economics; Food Systems; Participatory Research; Public Participation; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Low-Emission Food Systems

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

2024Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin E.; Wallin, Elsa; Bukachi, Salome A.
Details

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin E.; Wallin, Elsa; Bukachi, Salome A.

Citation

Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin; Wallin, Elsa; and Bukachi, Salome A. 2024. Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2319. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169362

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Agricultural Production; Gender; Natural Resources; Nature-based Solutions; Smallholders; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Nature-Positive Solutions

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

2024Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah
Details

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

Year published

2024

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W.; and Mamun, Abdullah. 2024. Global rice market: Current Outlook and future prospects. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2310. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168523

Keywords

Climate; Rice; Risk; Trade; Vulnerability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, Berber
Details

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer’s unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, Berber

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; and Kramer, Berber. 2024. Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2322. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169348

Country/Region

India; Kenya

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Agricultural Extension; Artificial Intelligence; Farmers; Inputs

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Diversification in East and Southern Africa

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

2024Keenan, Michael; Koo, Jawoo; Mwangi, Christine Wamuyu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Breisinger, Clemens; Kim, MinAh
Details

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Year published

2024

Authors

Keenan, Michael; Koo, Jawoo; Mwangi, Christine Wamuyu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Breisinger, Clemens; Kim, MinAh

Citation

Keenan, Michael; Koo, Jawoo; Mwangi, Christine; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Breisinger, Clemens; and Kim, MinAh. 2024. Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2321. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169363

Keywords

Southern Asia; Artificial Intelligence; Communication; Research

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Digital Innovation

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

2024Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene
Details

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics.

Year published

2024

Authors

Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene

Citation

Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; and Tambet, Heleene. 2024. Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2309. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168513

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate Change; Land Management; Gender; Social Protection; Sustainable Land Management

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Gender Equality

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

2024Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy
Details

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

Year published

2024

Authors

Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy

Citation

Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; and do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy. 2024. Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2314. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169025

Keywords

Agricultural Research for Development; Plant Breeding; Experimental Design; Market Research

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Market Intelligence

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India

2024Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Ray, Soumyajit
Details

Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India

We explore the impacts of exposing women to female role models and providing skills training on outcomes related to women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets under India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—the largest public works program in the world, which solicits citizen input on which assets to build and where. While the role model treatment exposes women to a video with stories of female role models from neighboring districts who successfully demanded assets, the skills training shows women how to identify individual and group needs for assets, frame their demands, and articulate them to public functionaries. In a randomized controlled trial spanning 94 villages and involving approximately 2,600 women, we find that exposure to role models alone has limited impacts, but when combined with skills training, there are strong positive impacts on women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets. This reveals that even a light-touch training can significantly benefit women’s voice and agency in village decision-making.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Ray, Soumyajit

Citation

Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; and Ray, Soumyajit. 2024. Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2315. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169023

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Civil Society; Decision Making; Gender; Training; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Gender Equality

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

2024Headey, Derek D.
Details

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Year published

2024

Authors

Headey, Derek D.

Citation

Headey, Derek D. 2024. The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2323. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169686

Keywords

Food Insecurity; Malnutrition; Prevalence of Undernourishment; Poverty; Stunting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses

2024Andersson, Krister; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.
Details

Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses

The literature on Multistakeholder Processes (MSPs) includes several studies that seek to specify the conditions under which MSPs perform well and deliver tangible governance improvements that would otherwise not happen. This is important research as MSPs are gaining popularity as an alternative to more traditional governance strategies, such as centralized, government-led activities. MSPs are often proposed in institutional settings where formal governance institutions are perceived to be ineffective or inequitable. In principle, studies that explain variation in MSP outcomes have the potential to inform MSP organizers and their decisions about how to organize their future MSPs in ways that save resources and improve outcomes. However, the existing MSP research programs demonstrate at least three limitations: First, the literature is characterized by the production of long lists of potential determinants of MSP performance, which makes it challenging for researchers to offer practical advice as to which of these factors is most important for MSP organizers to address first, and under which contextual conditions. Second, there is little agreement among scholars about what the core elements of a well-functioning MSP are, which elements affect mostly the emergence vis-à-vis effectiveness, and it is rare that studies specify which conditions or factors are essential and which may be helpful but not critical ingredients of success. Third, there is a dearth of theory-driven research that uses causal inference methods to test the theoretical propositions, which means that it is difficult to assess the quality of evidence in literature’s existing, mostly descriptive analyses. To advance knowledge about the emergence and flourishing of MSPs, and move beyond the production of long lists of associative success factors, there is an urgent need for researchers to come together in a community of practice to address the noted shortcomings. The Community of Practice will also promote the development of new and innovative ways of conducting MSP work, which will enable researchers to improve outcomes in terms of both cost-effectiveness and equity. In this paper, we review and synthesize the leading hypotheses on MSP emergence and effectiveness, develop a theoretical framework that captures the leading hypotheses, and discuss the viability of employing causal inference methods to test new hypotheses related to the emergence and flourishing of MSPs. We conclude by outlining the contours of a community of practice and how it can help advance MSP scholarship.

Year published

2024

Authors

Andersson, Krister; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.

Citation

Andersson, Krister; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; and Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S. 2024. Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2312. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168720

Keywords

Stakeholders; Fora; Research

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Low-Emission Food Systems

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Consumer response to food safety risk information

2024Hoffmann, Vivian; Murphy, Mike; Kariuki, Sarah
Details

Consumer response to food safety risk information

Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hoffmann, Vivian; Murphy, Mike; Kariuki, Sarah

Citation

Hoffmann, Vivian; Murphy, Mike; and Kariuki, Sarah. 2024. Consumer response to food safety risk information. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2305. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168191

Keywords

Consumers; Food Safety; Health; Households; Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

One Health

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

2024Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian
Details

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian

Citation

Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; and Hoffmann, Vivian. 2024. Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2304. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168192

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Food Safety; Aflatoxins; Impact Assessment; Agricultural Technology; Smallholders; Training; Maize; Crops

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

One Health

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

2024Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi
Details

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi

Citation

Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; and You, Liangzhi. 2024. Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2303. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163758

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Credit; Productivity; Investment; Smallholders; Welfare; Risk

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

2024Hazell, Peter B. R.; Timu, Anne G.
Details

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hazell, Peter B. R.; Timu, Anne G.

Citation

Hazell, Peter; and Timu, Anne G. 2024. What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance? IFPRI Discussion Paper 2316. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169010

Keywords

Agricultural Insurance; Case Studies; Farmers; Literature Review; Private Sector

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review

2024Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon
Details

Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review

This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector.

Year published

2024

Authors

Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon

Citation

Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; and Aliev, Jovidon. 2024. Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2317. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168997

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Agriculture; Development; Policy Analysis; Reforms

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

2024Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Omoigui, Lucky
Details

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems. OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds. SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Year published

2024

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Omoigui, Lucky

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji; and Omoigui, Lucky. 2024. Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2302. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163452

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Quality Control; Seed Quality; Training; Legumes

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

2024Hidrobo, Melissa; Mueller, Valerie; Roy, Shalini; Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni; Lavaysse, Christophe; Belli, Anna
Details

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hidrobo, Melissa; Mueller, Valerie; Roy, Shalini; Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni; Lavaysse, Christophe; Belli, Anna

Citation

Hidrobo, Melissa; Mueller, Valerie; Roy, Shalini; Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni; Lavaysse, Christophe; and Belli, Anna. 2024. Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2301. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163076

Country/Region

Mali

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Cash Transfers; Gender; Men; Rainfall; Shock; Women; Social Protection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Gender Equality

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

2024Ulimwengu, John M.
Details

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M. 2024. Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2300. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163039

Keywords

Food Security; Nutrition Security; Policy Innovation; Shock; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957

Keywords

Central America; Shock; Food Prices; Fertilizers; Markets; Price Volatility; Inflation; Food Security; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

2024Gonzales, Teresa; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Madero, Ana; Mittrick, Caitlin; Myers, Emily; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Rapadas, Amica
Details

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

As floods increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, anticipatory action (AA) programs offer a promising approach to mitigate their impacts. However, there is limited research about how AA programming can address the specific needs of women, who often face heightened vulnerabilities during disasters. This paper applies the Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform (RBET) framework to examine gender dynamics in AA programming through case studies in Nepal and Nigeria—two flood-prone countries where AA initiatives have been piloted. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, local advocacy groups, and direct beneficiaries of flood programs, we assess barriers and enabling conditions for AA to reach, benefit, and empower women and broader opportunities for transformation of gender norms and social inequalities. Our findings reveal key implementation challenges, including limited funding, weak integration with broader disaster risk reduction efforts, and inadequate early warning systems. However, we also identify practical strategies for improving AA’s gender responsiveness, such as relying on individual rather than household-level data, providing accessible early warning information, offering aid modalities that meet women’s specific needs (such as dignity kits), ensuring women’s participation in community decision-making, and facilitating ongoing inclusive household and community dialogues in flood-prone communities rather than only responding to specific flood warnings. The paper concludes with recommendations for scaling up gender-inclusive AA programming to enhance resilience and reduce the disproportionate impacts of flooding on women.

Year published

2024

Authors

Gonzales, Teresa; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Madero, Ana; Mittrick, Caitlin; Myers, Emily; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Rapadas, Amica

Citation

Gonzales, Teresa; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Madero, Ana; Mittrick, Caitlin; Myers, Emily; Quisumbing, Agnes; and Rapadas, Amica. 2024. How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2298. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162956

Country/Region

Nepal; Nigeria

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Western Africa; Disaster Risk Management; Flooding; Gender; Vulnerability; Women; Climate Change Adaptation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

2024Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B.
Details

A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1,704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations.

Year published

2024

Authors

Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B.

Citation

Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; and Lambrecht, Isabel B. 2024. A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2296. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162924

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Central Asia; Food Security; Malnutrition; Gender; Diet; Intrahousehold Relations; Dietary Diversity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

2024Ragasa, Catherine; Umar, Sulaiman; Sani, Rabiu Mohammed; Onyibe, Johnson E.; Omoigui, Lucky; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Andam, Kwaw S.
Details

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity. Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers. Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ragasa, Catherine; Umar, Sulaiman; Sani, Rabiu Mohammed; Onyibe, Johnson E.; Omoigui, Lucky; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Andam, Kwaw S.

Citation

Ragasa, Catherine; Umar, Sulaiman; Sani, Rabiu Mohammed; Onyibe, Johnson E.; Omoigui, Lucky; Fasoranti, Adetunji; et al. 2024. Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2297. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162923

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Cowpeas; Maize; Seed Systems; Supply Balance; Varietal Screening

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Catalyzing financial inclusion: Using incentives to promote mobile money use in Ethiopia

2024de Brauw, Alan; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Roy, Shalini
Details

Catalyzing financial inclusion: Using incentives to promote mobile money use in Ethiopia

Mobile money can be a vehicle for improving financial access, particularly among disadvantaged populations. For mobile money systems to play this role, though, members of disadvantaged groups must both enroll in and begin to use mobile money systems. In this paper, we describe a randomized trial conducted in collaboration with a bank in Somali region, Ethiopia, that attempted to stimulate use among recent mobile money enrollees in areas near refugee camps. We provide one group with a small transfer to their mobile money account and another group is told they will receive a small transfer if they first make three transactions of any type within a promotional period. The unconditional transfer induces a 9.3 percentage point increase in customers making at least one transaction, while the conditional transfer has no significant effect. The effect is larger among men, but there is evidence that it also induces use among women.

Year published

2024

Authors

de Brauw, Alan; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Roy, Shalini

Citation

de Brauw, Alan; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Herskowitz, Sylvan; and Roy, Shalini. 2024. Catalyzing financial inclusion: Using incentives to promote mobile money use in Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2295. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162765

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Africa; Access to Finance; Refugees; Gender; Digital Technology; Currencies; Finance; Mobile Phones

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

2024Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.
Details

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Year published

2024

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; and Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr. 2024. Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2294. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162738

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Communication; Labour Market; Skill Training; Youth

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

2024Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi
Details

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Year published

2024

Authors

Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi

Citation

Balana, Bedru; and Olanrewaju, Opeyemi. 2024. Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2293. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162588

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Farm Inputs; Financial Inclusion; Food Security; Households; Inorganic Fertilizers; Seeds

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Adapting to climate change: The case of saline tolerant seed varieties in coastal Bangladesh

2024Pal, Barun Deb; Kapoor, Shreya; Rashid, Shahidur
Details

Adapting to climate change: The case of saline tolerant seed varieties in coastal Bangladesh

Salt water intrusion and rising soil salnity are threatening food and livelihood security of paddy farmers in coastal Bangladesh. Visible manifestations of these challenges are degraded soils and chronic decline in tradtional farming, as it is becoming an increasingly infeasible means of livelihood. Promoting saline-tolerant paddy varieties (STRV) has been one of the major focuses of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the attention to the problem has been intensified in recent years through a partnerhsip with a consortium of CGIAR centers. Howewer, robust empirical analysis has hitherto been limited. Using farm level data, this paper analyzes the determinants and impacts of the adopting these new varieties. We use a multi-variate logit model to identify the constraints to adoption, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Endogeneous Switching Regression methods to assess the impacts on yeilds, and net income of the paddy farmers. Results show that adopting saline-tolerant rice varieties raises crop yield by an average of 1 to 2 tons per hectare, equivalent to a net income increase of about US$100 per hectare of cultivated land. Yet, adoption rates remain low due to several institutional constraints and perhaps a lack of nudging farmers in the scaling up strategies. Robustness of the results are tested, and the implications are discussed.

Year published

2024

Authors

Pal, Barun Deb; Kapoor, Shreya; Rashid, Shahidur

Citation

Pal, Barun Deb; Kapoor, Shreya; and Rashid, Shahidur. 2024. Adapting to climate change: The case of saline tolerant seed varieties in coastal Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2291. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159540

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Climate Change Adaptation; Impact; Livelihoods; Saltwater Intrusion; Rice; Seeds; Soil; Technology Adoption

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

2024Yami, Mastewal; Cavicchioli, Martina; Abate, Gashaw T.; Kramer, Berber
Details

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

Year published

2024

Authors

Yami, Mastewal; Cavicchioli, Martina; Abate, Gashaw T.; Kramer, Berber

Citation

Yami, Mastewal; Cavicchioli, Martina; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Kramer, Berber. 2024. Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2292. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159546

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa; Gender; Social Inclusion; Teff; Wheat

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Market Intelligence

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment on community-based targeting

2024Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Tafere, Kibrom; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
Details

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment on community-based targeting

Targeting is an important but challenging process in the design and delivery of social and humanitarian assistance programs. Community-based targeting (CBT) approaches are often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. However, how different variants of CBT approaches fare under various constraints and environments remains unclear. For example, it is not obvious whether agents involved in CBT maximize the number of beneficiaries or the intensity of transfers when given different levels of discretion or they face budget constraints. We implemented a clustered randomized control trial among community leaders in 180 villages in Ethiopia to evaluate how community leaders target and allocate resources when they face budget constraints and are in the presence (absence) of discretion. We find that under resource constraints, community leaders prefer to maximize the number of beneficiaries even at the expense of thinly spreading budgets (reducing average transfers to beneficiaries). Community leaders are keen to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors, suggesting that community leaders may be sensitive to potential communal repercussions and hence prefer to accommodate beneficiaries who would otherwise be excluded based on survey-based measures and indicators of poverty. Consistent with this, we find that offering community leaders some level of discretion helps them reduce exclusion errors and include those most deprived or those affected by armed conflicts. Finally, we find that community leaders are more vulnerable to favoritism when real stakes (rather than hypothetical) are involved, budgets are relatively larger, and they lack discretion. We offer nuanced evidence about the implications of implementing CBT designs in the absence of incentives for community leaders to reveal how they use local information.

Year published

2024

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Tafere, Kibrom; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Tafere, Kibrom; and Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum. 2024. Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment on community-based targeting. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2289. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158351

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Community Development; Fragility; Social Protection; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

2024Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo
Details

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Year published

2024

Authors

Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo

Citation

Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; and Idowu, Ifetayo. 2024. Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2290. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158431

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; School Feeding; Efficiency; Sustainability; Agricultural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

2024Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen
Details

Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers – and especially women – were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen

Citation

Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; and Xu, Yingchen. 2024. Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2288. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162767

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Smallholders; Land Rights; Loans; Livelihoods; Weather; Credit; Remote Sensing; Access to Finance; Gender; Impact Assessment; Insurance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s Awash River Basin: An examination of physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures

2024Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Yimam, Seid; Arega, Tiruwork; Alemu, Tekie; Gonfa, Kidist H.; Ringler, Claudia
Details

Irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s Awash River Basin: An examination of physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures

Using a representative sample of irrigation schemes, the study documents the physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures of irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s most intensively used river basin, the Awash. The findings show that about 20 percent of the equipped area of irrigation schemes in the basin is not being irrigated, while the number of actual beneficiaries on average exceeds the number of planned beneficiaries. The results also show significant knowledge gaps among irrigation scheme managers, extension agents, and leaders of water users’ associations (WUAs): 96 percent of them do not know the total water withdrawals or the irrigation water requirement per season. About 14 percent of the surveyed irrigation schemes have neither traditional water committees nor WUAs, and only 21 percent are organized in legally registered WUAs despite a substantial number of identified benefits of these organizations. Moreover, only 58 out of 489 irrigation schemes have women committee members. Many schemes lack a clear strategy for covering maintenance costs: almost 40 percent of schemes collect contributions from members only when the system fails, while 17 percent report no contributions for maintenance at all suggesting considerable risk of system deterioration and failure. The results challenge some of the assumptions about irrigation infrastructure in Ethiopia and confirm and quantify other assumptions in the literature.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Yimam, Seid; Arega, Tiruwork; Alemu, Tekie; Gonfa, Kidist H.; Ringler, Claudia

Citation

Mekonnen, Dawit K.; Yimam, Seid; Arega, Tiruwork; Alemu, Tekie; Gonfa, Kidist H.; and Ringler, Claudia. 2024. Irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s Awash River Basin: An examination of physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2287. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158200

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Irrigation Schemes; Infrastructure; Awash River; River Basins; Advisory Officers; Water User Associations; Women

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Evaluation of the programme to reduce vulnerability in coastal fishing areas in Djibouti: Qualitative findings

2024Eissler, Sarah; Heckert, Jessica
Details

Evaluation of the programme to reduce vulnerability in coastal fishing areas in Djibouti: Qualitative findings

We present findings from a qualitative study conducted as part of an impact assessment of the Programme to Reduce Vulnerability in Coastal Fishing Areas (PRAREV) , supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and implemented from 2013 to 2021. This study was designed to focus solely on the gender aspects of PRAREV, which overall aimed to support fishing communities and actors in the fishing sector in Djibouti, specifically those living in rural coastal areas affected by climate change, by reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change and promote co-management of marine resources. The program targeted those who are poor and who rely on fishing, particularly women involved in fish processing and marketing. The qualitative findings shared in this paper complement findings from an accompanying quantitative study, which found positive effects of the program on incomes, production, women’s influence on decisions, and food security, but not on resilience or nutritional status. We used multiple qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with program staff and men and women leaders and members of fishing organizations to examine the following research questions focused on the gender component of the program: 1) How the program was delivered from multiple perspectives; 2) How the program strengthened the fishers’ and fishmonger associations; and 3) The benefits and costs of the program in the areas of climate change resilience, livelihoods, and changes in the fishing sector. While PRAREV aimed to take a gender-sensitive approach, the gender strategy and its delivery could have been improved. PRAREV mainly reached women by intentionally including women fishing organizations so that they could benefit from access to collective resources, training, and knowledge. PRAREV trainings often were not communicated to women members of fishing organizations, which led to women’s relative exclusion compared to men members. However, participants shared both positive and negative feedback on the PRAREV program. They generally agreed that when delivered, the trainings were well received and increased knowledge and awareness of climate change and knowledge of upgrading techniques in the fishing sector. The climate change trainings developed awareness about the drivers of climate change and taught best practices on the preservation of local marine resources. However, these trainings did not address adaptation to depleted fish populations in mangroves or reefs. Other trainings focused on value chain upgrading were well received and when delivered, increased relevant knowledge. However, their reach was limited, particularly among women fishing organization members. Finally, PRAREV provided organizations key resources for value chain upgrading and integration in the fishing sector in a way that preserved the local marine environment (e.g., boats, knives, fishing wires, nets). While fishing organization members spoke positively of these resources, there were challenges in delivering them. They were delivered late in the project, often without training or a sustainability plan, or were often not delivered as promised, creating frustration and tension among group members. They were also often delivered in smaller quantities than originally communicated and as such, the recipient fishing organizations limited their use. Overall, group members felt there was limited transparency in delivering these resources. Based on these findings, we share recommendations for PRAREV and similar programs. We suggest conducting formative research on the local fishing sector to identify how men and women want to participate and the key barriers they face in doing so. With respect to resource provision, programs should provide resources earlier and should deliver them with a sustainability plan that has community buy in. Implementers should aim to understand how groups could make use of high-value common property to enable transparency and sustainability. Trainings should also be tailored to the local context and be more in-depth. Importantly, program staff should ensure that all intended beneficiaries, especially women, are invited and able to participate in program trainings so that all members can benefit from the knowledge, awareness, and skill building gained at each training event. Programs should implement a more robust monitoring plan to ensure resources are adequately used and equitably distributed, and that all intended beneficiary groups benefit equitably. Finally, although PRAREV was designed to undertake a gender-sensitive approach, further refinement of this approach could likely improve program delivery and impact. A gender accommodative approach would have supported and empowered women from within the traditional gender roles that they feel more comfortable with to participate and upgrade in their respective fishing activities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Eissler, Sarah; Heckert, Jessica

Citation

Eissler, Sarah; and Heckert, Jessica. 2024. Evaluation of the programme to reduce vulnerability in coastal fishing areas in Djibouti: Qualitative findings. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2284. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155277

Country/Region

Djibouti

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Fishing; Gender; Vulnerability; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Agriculture for Nutrition and Health

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

2024Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata
Details

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata

Citation

Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; and Pradhan, Mamata. 2024. Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2285. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155261

Country/Region

Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Nepal; Pakistan; Sri Lanka

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Climate Change; Climate-smart Agriculture; Prioritization; Scaling Up

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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