Publications and Datasets

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Artificial intelligence for decoding diet-gut microbiome-health interactions: A systematic scoping review

Diet is a major modifiable determinant of metabolic, immune, and inflammatory health, yet individual responses to the same dietary exposure often differ markedly because many effects are mediated by the gut microbiome. This systematic scoping review summarizes how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been used to decode diet-gut microbiome-health interactions. Following PRISMA 2020 guidance, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, Google Scholar, and citation lists for studies linking diet or nutrition, gut microbiome data, AI/ML methods, and health-related outcomes. Evidence was organized across biological mechanisms, data types, algorithm families, validation strategies, translational applications, and ethical constraints. Current evidence shows that tree-based ensembles, penalized regression, neural networks, autoencoders, graph learning, explainable AI, and emerging foundation-model approaches can improve phenotype prediction, multi-omics integration, microbial feature discovery, and personalized dietary response modeling. However, most studies remain limited by small or geographically restricted cohorts, heterogeneous sequencing and dietary assessment protocols, incomplete external validation, and weak experimental confirmation of model-derived mechanisms. We therefore propose a validation-to-translation framework that links leakage-free model development, cohort-external testing, explainable biological interpretation, prospective dietary intervention, privacy-preserving data sharing, and regulatory evaluation. AI is unlikely to replace mechanistic microbiome research, but it can substantially strengthen precision nutrition when embedded in transparent, reproducible, and clinically validated workflows.

What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand

There has been a proliferation of research on Southeast Asian crop booms over the past 15 years. Most studies take place at the height of booms or examine the immediate trajectory of boom and subsequent ‘bust’. Few take a longer-term perspective. In this article we draw on the literature on crop booms and scholarship on ‘everyday’ forms of agrarian transformation to address the question of what happens to livelihoods and land use patterns after a crop boom has ended. We pose this question with reference to aquaculture (shrimp and fish farming) in Central Thailand, which has undergone a series of booms and busts since the 1980s. We address the question using integrated mixed methods (geospatial analysis of land use change, surveys of 455 farm households in 8 provinces, in-depth interviews with 40 farmers). The post-boom trajectory of aquaculture and associated livelihoods has been characterized by the attenuation of boom/bust cycles, continuous adaptation and diversification by producers in the face of successive overlapping shocks, and a surprising degree of continuity and persistence in land use, landholdings and livelihoods. This pattern reflects historical legacies including high levels of absentee landlordism and secure agricultural tenancy and land tenure. Intra-household division and reconsolidation of inherited land, the relatively high economic value and environmental plasticity of key species farmed, and Thailand's ‘middle-income trap’ status all contribute to the persistence of aquaculture after the boom.

The geopolitics of food security: Can BRICS orchestrate a new agenda with ASEAN countries?

Temporal misalignment of income and nutrition in cash-crop food systems of Sub-Saharan Africa: Rethinking food security policy

In many cash-crop economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, higher agricultural income often fails to improve nutrition. We argue that this gap arises from a temporal misalignment between seasonal income, food availability, and nutritional needs. Annual measures obscure within-year risks driven by income concentration, poor consumption smoothing, market seasonality, climate variability, and intra-household dynamics. However, income timing alone is insufficient. Cash-crop revenue is frequently spent on non-food assets, gender dynamics shape who controls income and what is purchased, and nutritional adequacy requires dietary diversity, not just calories, which market supply often constrains. Moreover, savings mechanisms, though widely promoted, may fail during lean seasons due to trust, security, or liquidity issues. We propose three refined policy responses: (1) temporal nutrition audits that monitor dietary quality disaggregated by age and sex during local vulnerability windows; (2) financial instruments with gender-sensitive access, secure storage, and flexible withdrawal terms aligned with lean-season needs; and (3) climate-informed interventions that use anticipatory data to protect women's food budgets and support year-round availability of micronutrient-rich foods. The framework emphasizes local calibration using agricultural calendars, market conditions, household expenditure patterns, and seasonal nutrition data. It offers a conceptual basis for aligning agricultural, nutrition, financial, social-protection, climate, and gender policies with the timing and nature of nutritional vulnerability.

Preparing for El Niño under uncertainty: The case for adaptive planning

The ongoing El Niño event is influencing weather patterns around the world including in Malawi, where it is expected to affect the 2026/27 rainy season. Although its typical effects on rainfall and temperature are well-established, their precise timing, location, and severity cannot be predicted with certainty.

Harnessing solar-powered irrigation in Nigeria: Fix the “missing middle” to scale solar-powered small-scale irrigation for food security, jobs, and climate resilience

Key Messages – Nigeria irrigates only a sliver of its farmland. Just 3.9 percent of the country’s 76 million agricultural plots are irrigated, while more than 90 percent of agricultural output depends on increasingly erratic rainfall. – The country’s potential gains from irrigation are among the largest in Africa. About 1 million hectares could profitably be brought under small-scale irrigation in the dry season, backed by abundant sunshine and shallow groundwater across the north. – Solar is now the smart energy choice. Since the removal of the petrol subsidy in 2023, fuel based pumping has become far more expensive; solar pumps can cut operating costs by an estimated 60–80 percent and emissions by more than 95 percent. – The binding constraint is not the farmer but the “missing middle.” This includes fragmented public mandates, risk-averse lenders, thin and unregulated supply chains, gender exclusion, and missing data. – Government should build the middle, not just buy pumps. These efforts must include setting up a standing coordination platform, de-risking finance with harvest-synced repayment, enforcing equipment quality, investing in data as a public good, and designing for women, youth, and ground water safety from the start.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, October 2026

Highlights – Retail prices of maize increased on average by 7 percent in October. – Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports. – The increase in domestic maize prices was modest thanks to stable supply of maize imported from neigh boring countries.

Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala

Guatemala experiences high and persistent poverty and chronic malnutrition, especially in rural areas of the Western Highlands, where agricultural productivity is low, market integration is limited, and households remain vulnerable to multiple shocks. This paper evaluates the impacts of a regional value chain project combining interventions aimed at strengthening agricultural production, market access, and nutrition-sensitive practices. Using household survey data collected from beneficiary and control households in 2019 and 2022, we assess project impacts on outcomes related to production and income, food security, and nutrition. The findings suggest relatively modest impacts during the evaluation period. The intervention contributed to some degree of agricultural diversification, particularly through increased production of fruits and vegetables, while reducing moderate or severe food insecurity episodes and improving children’s weight-for-height z-scores. However, we do not find broader improvements in household expenditures, dietary diversity, or longer-term child nutritional outcomes. Additional analyses reveal limited evidence of meaningful differences in impacts across implementing partners, project components and treatment intensity, household groups, and exposure to specific shocks. These findings highlight the challenges of achieving measurable gains through integrated value chain and nutrition interventions in vulnerable environments and point to the importance of accounting for broader contextual factors in project design and evaluation.

Understanding smallholder engagement with anchor enterprises in Malawi Evidence from Three Selected Anchor Enterprises

Drawing on a household survey conducted in 2025 and focus group discussions held in 2026, this paper examines how smallholder farmers engage with three anchor enterprises in Malawi. The schemes differ both in the crop at their center and in how the partnership is structured. Tropha Estates sources chili in Mzimba under two-year contracts but provides neither inputs on credit nor formal extension services. Pyxus Agriculture Malawi (PAM) contracts groundnut in Kasungu on a seasonal basis, supplying an input package on credit that is recovered from delivered output and operates an extensive extension network. Malawi Mangoes sources fruit in Salima without formal contracts from farmers whose indigenous trees it has grafted with improved varieties. Although the pattern is not uniform across the schemes, participation is selective. All three schemes draw disproportionately from larger households with older heads, while households with less than half a hectare— roughly the national median — are notably underrepresented. PAM’s outgrowers are substantially better resourced than their neighbors and are by far the largest and wealthiest group. In contrast, Tropha, which imposes no minimum land requirement, collateral, or loan obligation, works with households that are no wealthier than their neighbors, farm similar areas, and its outgrowers are predominantly female. Malawi Mangoes sits in between. It appears to attract somewhat better-off households with larger farms, although less markedly than PAM. Female-headed households are slightly overrepresented, and women make up the majority of outgrowers. While Tropha introduced a new crop, PAM and Malawi Mangoes delivered on technology adoption, through improved seed and inoculant use and grafting respectively. All three enterprises also serve as an important source of agricultural advice for their outgrowers. However, none appears to have delivered on productivity in the 2024/25 season. Yields remain relatively low, and neither groundnut nor mango outgrowers outperform neighboring farmers. Adverse growing conditions, including erratic rainfall, likely contributed to these outcomes. PAM’s more input-intensive model, however, entails higher costs, and nearly one-third of its outgrowers failed to cover their groundnut production expenses.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2026

The report finds near-uniform price increases across essentially every commodity group tracked in September 2026: wheat, sorghum, and millet rose sharply (wheat flour stable in the first week, then rising); lentils, rice, and pigeon peas all increased, with lentils and rice rising most; potato prices continued climbing while tomato prices fluctuated; meat, fish, and milk prices rose (eggs stayed relatively stable); and sugar, groundnuts, sesame, fava beans, and cooking oil all increased, with cooking oil and sesame rising most steeply. Agricultural input prices followed the same pattern — wheat and sorghum seed prices rose sharply, and urea and DAP fertilizer prices increased after an August plateau — as did fuel, where parallel-market diesel and petrol prices spiked in the final week of the month. Underlying this, the parallel-market exchange rate rose sharply against the US dollar while the official rate moved only slightly, widening the gap between the two considerably; daily wages for shop sellers, porters, and agricultural workers also rose, most notably for porters. Traders’ perceived availability generally weakened — the share reporting high availability fell for all cereals (sharpest for wheat), all three vegetables (sharpest for tomatoes), cooking oil, and urea — though it improved for lamb, chicken, beef, eggs, and fava beans. Prices varied substantially across states, with West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and the Darfur states repeatedly recording the highest levels for cereals, sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and parallel-market fuel. On the trader-perception side (N=142, 72 percent medium-scale), 23 percent reported supply-chain or logistical challenges (down 4 points from August), 35 percent reported changing demand conditions (up from 28 percent), 21 percent reported financial and liquidity constraints (up from 15 percent), the share reporting rising profit margins fell to 27 percent from 36 percent, tax and fee payments edged up (39 percent federal, 88 percent state/local), and 68 percent intended to continue trading as usual over the next one to three months with 16 percent planning to increase volumes. -Abstract generated by Claude Opus 5

Distance, prospects, and migration to towns and cities

The impact of spatial shifts of paddy fields on CH4 emissions in China, 1990–2020

E-commerce expands the bandwidth of entrepreneurship

Ecological misreadings, landscape eligibility, and divergent environmental histories underpin complex vulnerabilities in Amazon-Cerrado interbiome politics

The Amazon and Cerrado biomes compose almost three-quarters of Brazil's territory. From 1985–2023, 16 million hectares were deforested in the Amazon biome, while in the Cerrado, which covers about half the size of the Amazon, over twice as much land was cleared. Amazonian forests and Cerrado savannas have different environmental histories, and the Brazilian government has employed varied approaches to develop them. The distinct economic, scientific, political, and governmental relationships of these biomes with Brazilian society have significantly influenced conservation and environmental policies. Furthermore, the ecological complexities of the interbiome zone between the Cerrado and Amazon are constantly changing, reflecting a complex climatic history and the challenge of defining clear conservation boundaries. As a result, what is considered the Amazon and what is labeled as the Cerrado are often disputed by different interested parties with diverging views and goals. This paper emphasizes that these biomes have been managed differently and continue to be treated unequally, based on historical environmental research and land-use change data. Given this asymmetric treatment, the paper argues that neglecting Cerrado systems and their functions—something familiar in many aspects of current environmental governance- poses severe climate and ecological risks, especially with the expansion of large-scale industrial agriculture. The main argument is that these two biomes share environmental functions and should be regarded politically as interdependent ecoregions. We assert that the current political division, which separates forests from non-forest areas, leaves the Cerrado unprotected and paradoxically increases the risk to the Amazon.

Optimizing public and private seed systems: A marginal treatment effect analysis for targeting biofortified bean diffusion in Zimbabwe

Phosphate fertilizer trade policy scenarios and their implications using the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis Model (GSIM)

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2026

-Rice prices continued to increase in September 2026, with the national average rising by 6.2 percent month on-month and 27.9 percent year-on-year. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with particularly sharp increases in Kachin, Ayeyarwady, and Mon. Flooding, transportation disruptions, and damage to monsoon paddy fields contributed to higher prices and raised concerns about upcoming harvests. -Crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize, black gram, and pigeon pea prices remained well above year-earlier levels, while green gram prices declined amid softer Chinese demand. Onion prices surged by 37.6 percent month-on-month and 240.1 percent year-on-year on reduced supply and continued buying from Thailand. Chili prices stayed elevated; potato prices declined despite weather-related crop damage. -Most animal-sourced food prices remained above year-earlier levels, though chicken and egg prices eased month-on-month. Mutton prices held at record highs (+68.6 percent year-on-year), while pork prices stayed below year-earlier levels amid continued disease concerns and soft demand. -Ongoing disruptions to Middle East shipping routes continue to pressure fuel and fertilizer costs, with fertilizer prices still well above last year’s levels – a risk to fertilizer use and agricultural production. -Heavy rain, flooding and structural damage to the Ma Mya Dam in Ayeyarwady, along with strengthening El Nino conditions, pose continued risks to agricultural production and food supply chains. -The outlook for Myanmar's food markets remains shaped by weather risks, elevated input costs, and shifting export conditions, including Thailand's maize import policy, China's green gram residue requirements, and proposed private-sector food price stabilization measures.

GCAN Partner Workshop: Report on lessons and priorities for strengthening policy engagement, institutional capacity, and sustainability

The Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN) brought partners together in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to reflect on progress, exchange lessons on capacity strengthening and policy engagement, identify priorities for the remaining period of the project, and engage with stakeholders in Ethiopia. The three-day workshop combined reflection, peer learning, forward planning, and stakeholder consultation. Several key takeaways emerged from the workshop:  Partners have made substantial progress in building awareness of the gender-climate-nutrition nexus, developing tools and training materials, convening multisectoral actors, and creating entry points into policy and planning processes. The next challenge is moving from awareness of the importance of integrating gender, climate change, and nutrition goals in policy processes to routine application and institutionalization.  Capacity strengthening on integrating gender, climate change, and nutrition needs to extend beyond training individuals. Participants emphasized leadership buy-in, institutional mandates, coordination mechanisms, practical tools, sustained financing, follow-up, and opportunities to apply learning in real policy and planning processes.  Country approaches differ, but partners gained insights from cross-country experiences and valued the opportunity for cross-country learning. Existing manuals, frameworks, metrics, policy briefs, and facilitation approaches could be consolidated and adapted rather than creating entirely new products in each setting.  Policy engagement is most effective when it is sustained, demand-driven, linked to active policy windows, and grounded in relationships with both technical staff and decisionmakers. Partners also highlighted the importance of co-creating evidence and translating it into practical guidance to facilitate GCAN integration.  Looking ahead, partners want to strengthen monitoring of capacity and institutional change, deepen peer learning, embed GCAN approaches in existing institutions and platforms, and mobilize resources and partnerships that can sustain the work beyond the current project period.

Climate shocks, maternal health and nutrition, and the protective role of maternal cash transfers: Evidence from the MAZIKO cluster-randomised controlled trial in Balaka and Ntcheu districts, Malawi

Climate variability and extreme weather events disrupt agri-food systems, livelihoods and health across sub-Saharan Africa (IPCC, 2022). Extreme temperatures, irregular rainfall, droughts and floods reduce agricultural productivity and worsen existing economic and health vulnerabilities among households that depend on subsistence farming (Morton, 2007). These pressures are particularly acute in Malawi, where rainfed agriculture dominates and seasonal food insecurity is widespread (Anderson et al., 2018). Pregnant women and mothers of young children are especially vulnerable to climate-related disruption. Climate-related stressors may worsen maternal mental health (Berry et al., 2010; World Health Organization, 2022) and maternal undernutrition, which are linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes and poor long-term child growth and development (Black et al., 2013), and. In the MAZIKO study area, 25% of women reported depressive symptoms (Becker et al., 2023). Empirical evidence on how acute climate shocks affect maternal nutrition and mental health in low-income settings remains limited (Scheelbeek et al., 2021). Cash transfer programmes have expanded widely to address poverty and food insecurity (Bastagli et al., 2016). They can improve household food access and consumption (Tiwari et al., 2016), although their effects on nutritional outcomes have varied (Ruel & Alderman, 2013). This has led to interest in cash plus approaches that combine transfers with complementary interventions such as social and behaviour change (SBC) or livelihoods programming (Little et al., 2021), which may also strengthen resilience to climate shocks by stabilising household consumption and reducing financial stress (Hidrobo et al., 2024). Whether nutrition-targeted cash plus programmes for pregnant women and mothers of young children remain effective during acute climate shocks has not been tested. In this study, we assessed whether maternal cash transfers with nutrition-sensitive SBC, or nutritionsensitive SBC alone, protected women’s dietary intake, dietary diversity, body mass index (BMI) and mental health from the effects of self-reported and objectively measured climate shocks in rural Malawi.

Selling better rather than growing more: Mixed-methods evidence on a private digital advisory platform for smallholders in northern Nigeria

Private digital agricultural platforms have proliferated across sub-Saharan Africa, yet rigorous evidence on farm-level outcomes and the conditions necessary for equitable distribution of benefits remains scarce. This paper provides a mixed-methods evaluation of Crop2Cash (C2C), a Nigerian agri-fintech enterprise delivering bundled “phygital” services—comprising AI-powered and human advisories, input marketplaces, credit scoring services, and e-wallet services accessible on basic feature phones. Combining a quasi-experimental research design, household survey, and qualitative data across Kaduna, Jigawa, and Niger States, we estimate the average and heterogeneous treatment effects of C2C services. Users averaged NGN 161,520 (USD 106) more in crop sales value than comparable non-users. These sales gains were driven primarily by marketing improvements—stemming from better price information, postharvest techniques, and market linkages—along with productivity gains for some crops and farmers. Conversely, we find no significant average effect on crop productivity or the adoption of 19 promoted sustainable agricultural practices. Despite high reported registration numbers, actual service uptake remains limited, particularly among women.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea (PNG) for the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 (July to September), using the data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA). Two rounds of data were collected in all six markets in July and August. In September, two rounds were collected in Banz, Goroka, Kokopo and Port Moresby, and no data were collected in Lae and Mt. Hagen. The bulletin analyzes month-over month changes in Q3 2026, as well as compares prices with the previous quarter (Q2 2026: April to June) and the same period in 2025 (Q3 2025).

Solutions for digital inclusion and digital innovations for inclusion by 2050

Food, land and water systems (FLWS) are transforming unevenly: off-farm work is expanding, youth employment in agriculture is falling in most regions, and women’s participation and earnings remain shaped by persistent regional gaps. Digital technologies will increasingly mediate information, finance, markets, advisory services and governance in these changing systems. Inclusive digital systems could lift approximately 30 million women out of extreme poverty and add around US$1.5 trillion to the global economy by 2050, but these gains depend on who can access, control, trust and shape digital systems. In South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, mobile-ownership and internet-use gaps remain slow to close. This chapter asks which digital inclusion strategies can support gender and intersectional equality in FLWS by 2050, and under what conditions. It draws on chapter 1 projections to frame future priorities, while recognizing that comparable longterm, gender-disaggregated digital agriculture projections remain limited. This chapter is situated within the report’s wider framing of the polycrisis, set out in the introduction along with the report’s conceptual framing. This chapter focuses specifically on how digitalization may either reinforce exclusion or expand agency in future FLWS.

A vision for equitable food, land and water systems by 2050

The world faces a defining moment. By 2050, global demand for food is expected to rise, climate shocks are expected to intensify, and youth populations in many regions are expected to grow rapidly. Food, land and water systems (FLWS) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are being pushed to their limits by the polycrisis — multiple interconnected global challenges whose combined impacts exceed the sum of their individual effects — deepening inequalities and threatening food security, socioeconomic stability and ecological resilience.3 The compounding challenges facing FLWS include climate change, strains on natural resources and profound demographic shifts, including a growing population marked by shifts toward both younger and older population structures, rapid urbanization and accelerating, increasingly diverse, and often gendered patterns of internal and international migration. Sudden-onset triggers (like natural disasters, conflicts or pandemics) interact with slow-onset stressors (like demographic shifts, rising temperatures and socioeconomic inequalities) to push established global systems into a state of disequilibrium and breakdown. A unique challenge of the polycrisis lies in the deep uncertainty it creates — FLWS actors at all scales are struggling to make decisions about a rapidly changing future.

Solutions for gender equality in land and water access, rights and governance within inclusive and resilient food, land and water systems

Food, land and water systems (FLWS) embed profound gender and social inequalities, including in terms of who has rights to the essential elements of land and water. These inequalities are not incidental, but rather systemic expressions of unequal power relations that shape who controls resources, whose knowledge is recognized, and whose voice is heard in FLWS governance. This chapter aims to identify effective strategies, approaches and actions, referred to as solutions, that can strengthen women’s access and rights to land (including forests and rangelands) and water, to chart more equitable, sustainable and resilient pathways for FLWS. Specifically, we ask: (1) What evidence-based solutions can support women’s access and rights to land and water, as well as their full and effective participation in land and water governance? (2) Under what conditions are these solutions effective? And (3) How can research, policies, investments and practice support the adaptation, implementation and scaling of these solutions? To begin, we provide a brief background on gender and intersectional equality related to land, water and their governance. Drawing on evidence from diverse contexts, we then outline solutions for addressing gender and intersectional inequalities and the conditions under which these solutions have been effective. Finally, we provide recommendations to adapt, implement and scale these solutions.

Looking ahead: gender and inclusion in food, land and water systems in 2050

Foresight research has not fully explored gender equality as a possible outcome of changes in FLWS over time, nor has it examined how gender inequalities hinder the transformation of these systems. Current trends suggest that only marginal progress is being made to address gender inequalities in food, land and water systems (FLWS), and this lack of progress will make it more difficult for women to participate in, benefit from and contribute meaningfully to FLWS transformation into the future. Young people also face considerable barriers to full participation in FLWS, such as lack of access to land and other resources, and limited economic opportunities. While progress has been real, it remains incremental because most interventions in FLWS have focused on women’s access to resources, services and participation, while insufficient attention has been paid to underlying structural factors, such as biases in institutions, unequal governance and decision-making structures and restrictive social norms that perpetuate inequalities. Progress is also uneven. While advancements are being made in some areas, such as closing the gender digital divide6 and integrating gender into the design of policies and interventions, other trends, such as intensifying climate change and conflict proliferation are eroding progress or even exacerbating inequalities. Moreover, these general trends and patterns vary both across and within regions and backsliding on progress toward gender equality can occur, particularly following major geopolitical shifts and global shocks — as is currently evident in the ongoing polycrisis. This chapter explores key drivers of gender (in)equality and youth inclusion in FLWS to 2050 by region under different scenarios, considering optimistic, pessimistic and business-as-usual trends in terms of demographic shifts and economic growth, drawing on historical trends over the past 20 years. Unequal outcomes, such as gender-related earnings gaps, reflect unequal power relations embedded within FLWS that also shape the process of agricultural transformation. While power relations are not directly observed in the projections presented in this chapter, these underlying and evolving dynamics also determine the degree to which it is possible to achieve gender parity by 2050.

Evaluating the 2014 Nagoya Protocol: Effects of international exchanges of plant genetic resources

The international rules governing the conservation, exchange, and use of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture (PGRFA) have evolved through agreements including the 1993 Convention on Biological Diversity, the 2004 International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (ITPGRFA), and the 2014 Nagoya Protocol (NP), which seeks fair and equitable benefit sharing from the use of PGRFA. Yet limited evidence on how these rules affect the international movement of PGRFA used by genebanks and breeding programs remains. This study assesses the NP’s effects using cross-country panel data from the GENESYS database. Leveraging countries’ staggered entry into the NP, we apply the difference-in-differences method developed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) and gravity-model analyses that account for NP membership and general regulatory capacity in provider and recipient countries. Results indicate that joining the NP has often reduced the number of PGRFA accessions exchanged internationally, particularly for pearl millet and wheat, with negative effects persisting in multiple years after 2014. Adverse effects are also observed for other crops during substantial portions of the study period. These effects are more pronounced for countries with limited regulatory capacity to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations, proxied by the World Bank’s regulatory quality index. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis and emerging anecdotal evidence that complex access and benefit-sharing requirements discourage PGRFA exchanges because of legal uncertainty, administrative costs, and limited institutional capacity, although more formal empirical analysis is needed to test the hypothesis. Policy priorities include reviewing and streamlining NP implementation and its coordination with other exchange frameworks for certain subgroups of PGRFA, such as the ITPGRFA, that are supposed to operate separately from the NP, especially where procedures are unclear or duplicative, while investing in the legal, administrative, and genebank capacity needed to facilitate compliant PGRFA exchanges. These measures can help protect equitable benefit sharing without unnecessarily restricting access to crop diversity needed for food security, crop improvement, and climate adaptation.

Women's household decision-making authority and dietary diversity in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2023/24 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey

Women in Nigeria face severe and persistent nutritional disadvantages rooted in patriarchal household structures that restrict their agency in key decision-making domains. This study examines the association between women’s household decision-making authority and dietary diversity, and tests whether resource ownership and information exposure moderate that association, using the 2023/24 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The analytic sample comprises 22,958 currently married women aged 15–49 years with a co-resident spouse. Poisson regression models with survey weights were estimated to assess the relationship between decision-making authority and the minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) score. Moderation was examined through interaction terms between joint decision-making and each of the two moderators, with marginal associations reported at representative values of each moderator. Because the NDHS is cross-sectional, every estimate reported here is an association measured at a single point in time. No coefficient is interpreted as a causal effect. Joint participation in healthcare decisions was associated with a 5.6 percent higher MDD-W score relative to exclusion from decisions (β = 0.056; p < 0.01), and independent healthcare authority with a 4.3 percent higher score (β = 0.043; p < 0.01). Joint participation in large-purchase decisions was associated with a 3.2 percent higher score (β = 0.032; p < 0.01) when modelled alone but was not distinguishable from zero once healthcare authority was included. Interaction terms between joint decision-making and each moderator were negative and significant throughout: the association was largest among women with no assets and no media access, and at the maximum of either index the point estimate was fully offset rather than merely attenuated. Confidence intervals at the maximum of each index include zero in five of the six specifications, so the association is best described as eliminated rather than reversed. Women’s meaningful participation in household decision-making is significantly associated with dietary diversity in Nigeria, with the largest differences observed among the most disadvantaged women. Achieving substantive improvements in women’s nutrition requires policies that simultaneously address gaps in household agency, asset ownership, and access to information.

Tractor service providers in Myanmar: Early insights from the 2026 monsoon season

This note presents results from a July 2026 phone survey of 291 tractor service providers (TSPs)—who play a vital role in enabling timely land preparation and planting— offering early insights into the 2026 monsoon season. Key Findings – Acres prepared by TSPs declined by 18 percent compared to the previous monsoon season (24 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with weaker demand reported by 58 percent of TSPs and attributed almost entirely to fuel costs and availability. – Fuel constrained what TSPs could deliver. Nearly half (48 percent) operated below capacity, and 23 percent were unable to operate at all for a period during the season, averaging around 20 days. Fuel purchased outside official channels costs about 25 percent more than at official stations. – Nominal service charges rose by an average of 44 percent, which TSPs attributed almost entirely to fuel. Diesel costs rose at more than twice that pace, suggesting TSPs recovered only part of the increase from their customers. – Most TSPs (89 percent) extended credit for their services to their clients, always without interest, and 46 percent provided more assistance than in the previous season. Formal credit appears largely unavailable to TSPs. – Revenue fell for 68 percent of TSPs while costs rose for 64 percent. Cash flow problems affected 30 percent, who coped mainly by drawing on other income and selling assets. Even so, those under financial pressure continued to extend credit to farmers. Recommended Actions – Improve fuel access for mechanization services through priority allocation of rationed fuel during the planting window and more predictable supply at official stations. – De-risk credit for mechanization services by sharing repayment risks or expanding access to affordable credit for both farmers and service providers. – Stabilize machinery, spare parts, and repair costs and availability by facilitating imports, easing access to foreign exchange, and supporting local repair capacity. – Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, September 2026

Highlights – Retail prices of maize increased on average by 3 percent in September. – The increase in domestic maize prices was modest thanks to stable supply of relatively cheap maize imported from neighboring countries. – Retail prices of maize were highest in the Southern Region, and lowest in the Northern Region, where they remained below the minimum farmgate price in many markets.

Data systems under financial strain: Findings from a rapid assessment of 41 food security, nutrition, and health information systems

The 2025 cuts to foreign assistance have weakened the crisis-information infrastructure underpinning humanitarian and development response. An IFPRI assessment, funded by Rockefeller Catalytic Capital (RFCC), examined 41 globally relevant information systems focused on predicting, monitoring, and understanding food and nutrition crises. Among systems reporting funding estimates, funding declined by an average of 31% in 2025, compared with a 23% decline in overall official development assistance (ODA). These funding cuts have sharply reduced data collection, limited analysis, and weakened forecasts. As declining aid flows make effective targeting of assistance even more critical, the information available to decision makers is eroding.

Humid-heat shifts conceptions and increases pregnancy termination risks in Nigeria

Significance Climate change is increasing dangerous heat events globally. We examine the relationship between humid-heat and women’s reproductive health in Nigeria, a rapidly growing and climate-vulnerable country. By spatially integrating demographic data with fine-grained humid-heat data, we find that hotter humid conditions decrease conception probability, but later rebound, and increase pregnancy terminations, resulting in more births overall. We observe greater effects of humid-heat on conception among more disadvantaged or vulnerable women, such as those who live in rural areas or have lower educational attainment, while humid-heat affects pregnancy termination along different dimensions, such as women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Our findings shed light on the complex relationship between temperature-humidity extremes and maternal and reproductive health. Abstract Climate change is increasing the occurrence of dangerous heat events globally with immediate health consequences, particularly in the Global South. In this paper, we spatially integrate Demographic and Healt 9 h surveys with a high-resolution, blended remotely sensed and station-derived dataset of humid-heat events spanning 1983–2016 to examine the effect of humid-heat exposure on fertility in Nigeria, one of the largest and most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. We use discrete-time models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and conception probability and linear probability models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and pregnancy termination (spontaneous and induced). We find that a 1 °C increase in the current maximum wet bulb globe temperature decreases conceptions (0.2 conceptions per 1,000 woman-months, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.4), but exposure to hotter temperatures 1 to 2 mo prior increases conception probability. Exposure to hot-humid temperatures during pregnancy increases probability of pregnancy termination (1.73 terminations per 100 pregnancies, 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.7). The net effect is an increase in births, but the timing may be shifted. Subgroup analyses reveal that effects of humid-heat on conception were larger for women residing in rural areas or in northern districts, or who are Muslim or have lower educational attainment, while the association between humid-heat and pregnancy termination was larger for women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Differences in how humid-heat affects populations may exacerbate existing inequalities. Overall, our analysis contributes to a better understanding of how humid-heat exposure affects fertility and reproductive health among women in the Global South.

Nutritional status of school-going adolescent girls is associated with their cognitive function but not academic performance: insights from Ten2Twenty-Ghana baseline study

Background The link between nutritional status and cognitive performance is well-documented in early childhood, but limited data exist on adolescents, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the associations between nutritional status, overall cognitive function and its subdomains, and academic performance among adolescent girls in Ghana. Methods Cross-sectional data from the Ten2Twenty-Ghana study were analysed, including 845 girls aged 10–17 from 19 primary schools in the Mion District. Fluid cognition, a composite measure of cognitive function, was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Toolbox Cognition Battery. The cognition battery comprised five subdomains: executive function, attention control, processing speed, working memory, and episodic memory. Academic performance was assessed using examination scores in Mathematics, English, and General Science. Anthropometry was used to calculate the body mass index-for-age z-score (BAZ) and the height-for-age z-score (HAZ) using WHO AnthroPlus. Generalised linear mixed-effects models with a random intercept for school, assessed associations while adjusting for potential confounding variables, including age, anaemia, dietary diversity, menarche status, health complaints, school attendance, household food security, wealth, dependency, and literacy ratios, school feeding status, and interviewer effect. Results The mean HAZ was -0.9 ± 1.2, BAZ was -0.7 ± 0.9, fluid cognition was 26.7 ± 9.6, and academic performance was 53.8 ± 13.1%. BAZ was positively associated with the fluid cognition composite score (adjusted β = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.39, 1.83) and with processing speed subdomain (adjusted β = 1.31, 95% CI: 0.49, 2.13). HAZ was positively associated with processing speed after full adjustment (adjusted β = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.06, 1.29). No significant associations were found between anthropometric indices and academic performance. Conclusion Nutritional status was positively associated with the fluid cognition composite score and processing speed subdomain among adolescent girls, while no association was observed with academic performance. These findings underscore the importance of improving adolescent nutrition to support cognitive development in rural settings.

Agrifood system transformation in low- and middle-income countries: Cross-country evidence from Africa and Asia

This paper contributes to the agrifood-systems literature by providing one of the largest cross-country assessments of agrifood-system structure and transformation currently available. Using a consistent economywide framework based on social accounting matrices across 27 African and Asian countries, the synthesis reveals three broad patterns of agrifood-system transformation. First, agrifood systems account for substantial shares of GDP and employment not only in low-income countries but also in relatively advanced lower-middle-income economies. While agrifood systems continue to grow in absolute terms, their relative importance declines with economic diversification, accounting for smaller shares of GDP and employment at higher income levels, both across countries and within countries over time. Second, agrifood systems remain major sources of employment, but the composition of new jobs is shifting beyond farming. Off-farm activities account for an increasing share of new agrifood jobs, particularly in middle-income countries, with much of this employment created in service-related off-farm activities. Third, agricultural labor productivity increased in most countries, providing encouraging evidence of ongoing transformation. However, growth in off-farm labor productivity was much less widespread across countries. Maintaining agricultural productivity growth is essential, but stronger productivity growth in off-farm agrifood activities will be increasingly important for sustaining income growth and long-term structural transformation.

Gender inequality in livestock ownership, decision-making, and productivity: Evidence from Nigeria

Livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa are characterized by persistent gender disparities: women contribute substantial labor but have limited ownership and control of productive assets. Using individual-level data from the 2022/23 Nigeria Agricultural Sample Survey, this study examines gender gaps in livestock ownership, income control, and productivity by using the individual livestock manager rather than the household as the unit of analysis. The results reveal that women are 7.1 percentage points less likely to own large ruminants, 5.8 percentage points less likely to own small ruminants, and 1.4 percentage points less likely to own monogastrics, while having a 9.7 percentage-point advantage in poultry ownership. Women are also 19.2 percentage points less likely to control livestock income, even when actively engaged in production, with this gap moderated by household headship rather than education or agricultural training. Enterprises managed by women produce approximately 3.2 fewer liters of milk and 1.8 to 3.2 fewer eggs per week than those managed by men, conditional on herd size and geographical zone. Ownership disparities in large ruminants in Nigeria are more pronounced in the livestock-dense North but narrow or reverse in the South. The persistence of income-control gaps despite differences in human capital suggests that gender inequality in livestock systems is rooted in structural constraints, including inheritance norms and intrahousehold bargaining dynamics. These findings highlight the need for gender-responsive interventions that combine asset transfers and market access with measures to strengthen women’s decision-making authority and monitor economic agency using individual-level indicators.

Animal-sourced food revolutions and their implications for prices, consumption, and nutrition in low- and middle-income countries

Livestock and aquaculture are increasingly regarded as high-priority sectors for nutrition-sensitive agricultural development in low- and middle-income countries, as well as for income and job generation. One key question is whether increases in animal-sourced food (ASF) production—driven by extensification and/or intensification—translate into improvements in consumption through lower real ASF prices, either in absolute terms, or relative to a counterfactual. This study first examines the theoretical issues around whether real ASF prices should fall in response to production growth, focusing on the key how tradable an ASF commodity is. Fresh ASF products tend to be highly perishable and are therefore hypothesized to have their prices largely set by domestic production and marketing conditions. However, we argue that there is a continuum of tradability that makes these predictions complicated, as well as consumer preferences around substitutability between perishable and non-perishable products such as fresh milk and powdered milk. The study then reviews existing cross-sectional evidence on the relationship between relative caloric prices of ASFs and their consumption. While low incomes are a primary constraint on improving ASF consumption, high ASF prices are an important secondary constraint that explain a sizable share of cross-country variation in ASF consumption. Finally, we review existing country-specific evidence and generate novel cross-country evidence on whether countries that experience rapid growth in ASF production see declines in real ASF prices. Production growth in poultry meat and eggs results in sizable real price declines, while for dairy the association is negative but imprecise, perhaps because of the tradability of dairy powder making these relationships more heterogenous. These findings support the conclusion that growth in ASF production can make ASFs more affordable in LMICs, though economic, environmental and “one health” challenges need closer consideration. A priority for future research is in-depth economic simulation analyses to provide a more structural explanation of the stylizing facts uncovered in this study, and to assess the prospective impacts of specific ASF investments or policies.

Heterodox thinking on water economics, values, and governance

Global water crises are, finally, near the top of the agendas at the United Nations and at multilateral initiatives and organizations. A social sciences– and humanities-informed emerging literature that we call Heterodox Thinking offers alternatives to much of the current decision-making on water. Rooted in water economics, values, and governance, Heterodox Thinking comprises developments in nonmarket valuation, systems thinking, risk assessments and mitigation, infrastructure investments, and understanding injustices and relationality. It is characterized by the Three Ps: People (e.g., who has voice and power and who does not), Place (e.g., locally informed and justice-based), and Planet (e.g., system interconnections, risks, and ecological and nonhuman considerations). At its best, Heterodox Thinking is informed by on-the-ground evidence and multiple disciplines and knowledge, and it seeks to value water, expose power imbalances, support human rights and well-being, and mitigate systemic risks. If effectively operationalized, it can deliver more equitable, risk-mitigated, and sustainable responses to the many different and localized water crises.

Farming, food processing, or distribution? Agrifood investment priorities for poverty reduction and dietary improvements in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improving access to affordable healthy diets while reducing poverty is a central challenge of agrifood systems transformation in low- and middle-income countries. Productivity-enhancing investments can help achieve these goals, but policymakers face difficult choices about where within agrifood systems to target investments or which value chains to prioritize while balancing multiple development objectives. We address these questions by linking household microsimulation modules to economywide models for five sub-Saharan African countries—Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania—to quantify how productivity growth across agrifood system components and value chains affects poverty, the affordability of healthy diets, and diet quality. We find that productivity growth in farming continues to generate the largest overall gains. A 10 percent increase in farm productivity raises GDP by 4.2 percent on average, reduces poverty by 3.3 percentage points, and lowers the cost of a healthy diet by 6.5 percent. However, when impacts are normalized by GDP growth, productivity gains in food processing and distribution are equally or more effective at reducing poverty. Across value chains, staple crop productivity delivers the largest absolute reductions in poverty, while horticulture generates the strongest improvements across development outcomes per unit of GDP growth. These findings suggest that agrifood system investment priorities should evolve as economies undergo structural change, with policymakers aligning investments to societal priorities while managing trade-offs across poverty reduction, healthy-diet affordability, and diet quality.

Does access to Kisan Credit Card improve smallholder farmers' performance? Insights from eastern India

Measuring gender-responsive climate change adaptation in agrifood in agrifood systems: A country-level framework

Efforts to strengthen climate change adaptation in agrifood systems increasingly recognize the importance of addressing gender-differentiated vulnerabilities and resilience. Yet, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems still struggle to capture how women and men experience and are coping and adapting to climate change. This paper reviews existing climate change metrics frameworks across project, local, and national levels and assesses their approaches to gender integration. Drawing on a literature review of eleven adaptation metrics frameworks and six key informant interviews with experts involved in climate M&E system development, we identify persistent challenges related to data availability, attribution, standardization, institutional capacity, and the dynamic nature of climate risks. Building on these insights, the paper proposes a flexible, national-level framework designed to assess gender integration in adaptation efforts within agrifood systems. By highlighting both lessons learned and practical entry points for action, this paper aims to support governments, development partners, and practitioners in designing gender-responsive adaptation metrics in agrifood systems.

Are government or non-governmental organization staff more effective in delivering frontline mental health services? Evidence from a cluster randomized controlled trial

Large treatment gaps in mental health services exist in low- and middle-income countries. While low-intensity psychological interventions delivered by non-specialists show promise in closing this gap, evidence is limited regarding whether government health systems can scale these services effectively. Utilizing a randomized controlled trial across 222 villages in Tigray, Ethiopia, we compare the effectiveness of a psychological intervention, group Problem Management plus (gPM+), delivered in five sessions using two distinct platforms—government-employed Health Extension Workers (HEWs) and NGO-stipended local facilitators (LFs)—vis-a-vis a control arm that receives no intervention. At the one-month follow-up, we find that gPM+ significantly reduces adverse mental health symptoms (particularly depression and anxiety) across both delivery arms, and the intervention is more effective when delivered by LFs (0.22 SD) compared to HEWs (0.11 SD). However, at the 12-month follow-up, treatment effects largely attenuate to zero (mainly due to spontaneous recovery in the control arm) and we find no impacts on child development. The cost per month of depression averted is lower for LFs (PPP $120) vis-a-vis HEWs (PPP $145 to $162, depending on whether HEW time is costed). These findings show that low cost psychological interventions can effectively reduce adverse mental health symptoms in the short term when delivered through both government and NGO platforms, but NGO platforms are slightly more cost-effective.

Rapid assessment of 2026 El Nino in PNG: Observations during a fresh produce value chain study

The National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a detailed fresh produce value chain survey along the Highlands Highway from August through September 2026 to investigate challenges and opportunities for growing the fresh vegetable sector in Papua New Guinea (Figure 1 displays survey areas). While preparing for the survey, PNG stakeholders requested that the survey team collect data on evolving conditions due to the severe El Niño predicted for 2026-2027. After a variety of stakeholder consultations, a survey module was designed to allow survey supervisors to provide open-text observations of community conditions related to El Niño based on 6 indicators. The six indicators had accompanying question prompts for supervisors to consider as they observed each theme in the survey communities, respectively

Returns to investment in selected IFPRI research

Funders and governments increasingly demand evidence of the returns on investment (ROI) of agri-food systems research, but many research benefits are difficult to quantify. This paper describes methods to estimate the ROI of selected Gates Foundation investments in IFPRI research on nutrition, foresight modeling, and women's empowerment. We present a conceptual framework linking research results to improved outcomes for people, then identify projects with evidence of research influence, high-quality impact estimates, and measures of reach. Two selected projects meet the impact and reach requirements: (1) an evaluation of the first phase of Alive & Thrive and (2) modeling which helped persuade Tanzania's government not to impose a maize export ban. For IFPRI's role as a research partner to Alive & Thrive, we conservatively attribute between $43 and $90 million in net returns to the research, suggesting a median ROI of roughly 450 percent. For the modeling research that informed decision-making on a maize export ban in Tanzania, estimated benefits are between $64 million and $397 million, though cost data are unavailable. The benefits of women's empowerment research could not be converted into monetary terms. The exercise shows that ROI is not always appropriate or feasible to measure and that returns may be lower when programs target women or the poor. The limitations illustrated here suggest that ROI estimates are best interpreted as part of a wider research portfolio, including benefits that cannot be calculated monetarily. The results suggest that the overall ROI of Gates Foundation investments in IFPRI research is positive.

Stakeholder engagement in food systems and nutrition research programs: Approach, insights, and lessons learned from the FRESH Initiative

Poor diets are a leading cause of malnutrition and diet-related diseases globally. Improving diets, including increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, is critical to address these challenges. Global F&V consumption, however, remains below the recommended 400 grams of fruit and vegetables per person per day. A complex set of factors related to the desirability, availability, accessibility, and affordability of F&V limits intake. This suggests that integrated, food-system-based solutions are needed.

India's agricultural policy transitions

This review traces the evolution of India's agricultural policy regime, centered on price supports, input subsidies, and complex trade policies that oscillate between protectionism and implicit taxation of farmers. It highlights three interlinked challenges: low farm incomes, poor diet quality, and environmental degradation. The policy architecture that ensures food security constrains the pace of agricultural transformation. Reform requires repurposing subsidies and restoring credibility to trade policy. While the digital infrastructure is in place to begin the shift to smarter subsidies, the political path is risky, as policy must seek credible ways to signal protection of farmer interests. Despite these policy rigidities, economic growth and urbanization continue to drive structural changes in agriculture. Diversification away from cereals, new food value chains, and rising integration with nonfarm employment are the key dynamic forces shaping agricultural outcomes. Future outcomes will depend on policy responses to emerging food value chains and new agricultural technologies.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2026

This report analyzes trends in the prices, availability, and market conditions of essential commodities across Sudan in August 2026, drawing on trader surveys and market monitoring data. Prices for most food commodities, fuel, and labor continued to rise, while perceptions of commodity availability generally declined for staple foods, oilseeds, and some agricultural inputs, with substantial variation across states. The report also highlights increasing supply chain and financial constraints among merchants, persistent demand challenges, and a cautious business outlook, despite most traders expecting to continue operating under current market conditions. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

Agricultural insurance has long been promoted as a tool to help smallholder farmers manage production and market risks, yet affordable, well-functioning coverage has proven difficult to deliver at scale. This paper reviews peer-reviewed evidence on the design, implementation, and impacts of agricultural insurance in low- and middle-income countries, with a focus on innovations that have emerged since early indemnity-based multi-peril crop insurance programs gave way to index-based and hybrid approaches. It synthesizes findings on ex ante and ex post impacts, on design features that shape cost, basis risk, and payment timing, and on distribution channels and inclusion of women and low-income households. The review finds that insurance can meaningfully protect household consumption and assets after shocks and encourage productive investment beforehand, but that these benefits depend heavily on accurate loss assessment, adequate coverage size, and trust built through distribution partners. The paper concludes with operational recommendations for policymakers and practitioners on product design, subsidies, and distribution, and identifies priority evidence gaps, including the optimal design of subsidies and insurance's potential to address non-weather-related risks.

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

After quantification: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

As the concept of soil health gains prominence, it becomes increasingly important to examine how states design and implement soil health policies. Does soil health offer a novel pathway to enact and legitimize institutional changes toward more sustainable farming systems, or does it risk becoming another neologism that preserves status quo, productivist agriculture? We explore these questions through an analysis of one of the most ambitious state-led initiatives organized around soil health: India’s Soil Health Card (SHC) scheme. The SHC scheme seeks to provide every farmer in the country with bi-annual soil test reports, based on the assumption that improved information will encourage more judicious use of fertilizers and pesticides. The assumption reflects a broader emphasis within the agricultural sciences on the importance of quantifying soil health. Drawing on government documents and farmer perception studies (n = 38), we find that although farmers view the cards positively, they make few substantive changes to their farming practices. As an illustrative case, India’s grand SHC scheme shows that quantification alone is insufficient and could even dampen momentum for transformative policy reforms. Effective and durable change lies in pairing efforts to quantify soil health with (a) plural epistemic approaches to knowledge production, (b) participatory models for knowledge dissemination, and (c) structural reforms in the agri-food system that address issues around land tenure and subsidies.

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.

Persistent BMI and height deficits reflect structural and geographic inequities among adolescent girls in Nepal

Adolescence is a period of rapid growth; however, many adolescent girls experience suboptimal growth trajectories. This longitudinal study assessed changes in body mass index (BMI) and linear growth and associated factors among Nepali adolescent girls from 2017-2019. We analysed panel data from three waves (2017 [n=770], 2018 [n=682] and 2019 [n=618]) of never-married and non-pregnant girls aged 10-19 years in 2017. BMI-for-age difference (BMI-AD) and height-for-age difference (HAD), indicating deviation from WHO age- and sex-specific medians, were used to assess change over time. BMI-AD and conditional growth (calculated as residuals from regressions of 2018/2019 HAD on prior HAD and age) were used in the regression analyses to identify associated factors. Conditional growth reflects linear growth above or below what would be expected, based on prior height and age. We used descriptive statistics to assess change, and linear mixed-effects and ordinary least squares regression to identify factors associated with BMI-AD and conditional growth, respectively. Findings confirmed that girls consistently had lower BMI (-1.78kg/m2, -1.60kg/m2 and –1.48kg/m2 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019) and height relative to the WHO median for their age and sex (-10.3cm, -10.2cm and -9.9cm respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019), with negligible improvements. Factors associated with higher BMI-AD were post-menarche status (0.98kg/m2, 95% CI 0.72, 1.25), higher education (0.11kg/m2, 95% CI 0.01, 0.21), and disadvantaged caste/ethnicity (0.48kg/m2, 95% CI 0.14, 0.83); in contrast, older age (-0.17kg/m2, 95% CI -0.27, -0.07), food insecurity (-0.31kg/m2, 95% CI -0.57, -0.06), and terai (-0.93kg/m2, 95% CI -1.45, -0.40) or hill (-0.57kg/m2, 95% CI -1.06, -0.08) residence were associated with lower BMI-AD. For conditional linear growth, older age (0.19cm, 95% CI 0.14, 0.24 for 2018; 0.16cm, 95% CI 0.11, 0.21 for 2019) and underweight (0.25cm, 95% CI 0.10, 0.40 for 2018) predicted higher gains than expected given their prior height and age, whereas post-menarche status (-0.94cm, 95% CI -1.16, -0.72 for 2018; -1.03cm, 95% CI -1.25, -0.82 for 2019) and terai (-0.35cm, 95% CI -0.62, -0.08 for 2018; -0.31cm, 95% CI -0.59, -0.03 for 2019) hill (-0.25cm, 95% CI -0.48, -0.02 for 2019) residence predicted lower growth than expected given their prior height and age. Findings highlight the need to address age-related nutrition, education, food insecurity, and geographic disparities to support healthy growth.

Inter‐group cooperation and conflict. Experimental evidence from Yemen

Inadequate energy and micronutrient intakes across Filipino population groups: Findings from the 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey

Background Diet-related challenges and food insecurity are experienced by many Filipinos, underscoring the need for evidence-based interventions to improve diet quality and prevent malnutrition. Objectives The study aimed to evaluate the usual energy and nutrient intakes and the probability of inadequate micronutrient intake across different population groups in the Philippines. Methods The 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey was a nationally representative survey conducted in the Philippines; it assessed dietary intake using a quantitative 24-h dietary recall, with a repeated recall among 50% of participants on nonconsecutive days. Usual intakes, probability of inadequate intake (PII) for micronutrients, and mean probability of inadequacy (MPI) for 11 micronutrients were estimated using the National Cancer Institute method among children under-5 (U5, n = 4930), school-aged children (SAC; 6–9 y, n = 8116), adolescents (10–19 y, n = 15,394), adults (20–59 y, n = 29,391), elderly (>60 y, n = 9170), nonpregnant/nonlactating women of reproductive age (NPNL-WRA; 15–49 y, n = 15,037), pregnant females (n = 436), and lactating females (n = 1354). Results Mean energy intake ranged from 699 kcal/d in U5 to 1500 kcal/d in adults and was below recommendations across all populations. Carbohydrates contributed 61% of energy in U5 and 73% in adults and lactating females. Protein contributed 12% to 14% and fat 13% to 26% across all groups. High PII (>75%) for calcium, zinc, vitamin C, riboflavin, iron, thiamine, and folate was observed in most groups, except for lower inadequacies in thiamine, folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 among U5 and SAC. MPI increased with age, from 59.5% in U5 to 83.3% in lactating females and was higher among groups from food-insecure households. Conclusions Reported energy intake was below recommendations in most groups. Intake of many micronutrients was inadequate, particularly among NPNL-WRA, pregnant, and lactating women, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions to improve dietary quality, micronutrient intake, and food security among vulnerable populations.

Nutrition sensitive poverty and its correlates in Papua New Guinea: Incorporating healthy diet targets into poverty measurement

As the international development community increasingly prioritizes nutrition outcomes, incorporating healthy diets into poverty measurements has important implications for what it means to be poor. Particularly for low- and middle-income countries dependent on domestic agriculture and low-cost food imports, evaluating the access to healthy diets is crucial to meeting food security goals. This paper provides the most expansive poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 15 years. In doing so, we compare a standard cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by modest diets aligned with consumption patterns that meet a dietary energy (calorie) threshold; and a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold and recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43% of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. An additional 21% of sample individuals (64%) live below the healthy diet poverty line due to the relatively high cost of nutrient-dense foods in PNG. Multivariate regression analysis underscores the importance of household income diversification, whether via non-farm enterprise ownership or migrant remittances. Results reflect the unique challenges characterized by PNG’s remote landscape and lack of rural services, amplifying the need to improve rural-urban linkages that promote market access, educational attainment, and higher value employment opportunities.

Where does decentralised green nitrogen fit in Africa’s fertiliser resilience strategy?

Africa faces recurrent fertiliser shocks because much of its nitrogen supply depends on imported products, fossil energy, and exposed trade routes, while production, product mix, logistics, and farm-gate demand remain poorly aligned. Decentralised green nitrogen production – defined as small-scale nitrogen fertilizer synthesis powered by renewable electricity – could make a major contribution to addressing these challenge, but to go to scale it will need to lower delivered costs, improve farm returns, reach farmers with responsive crops, and manage product, safety, resource, and governance risks. This opinion piece argues for an Africa-wide prioritisation assessment that compares potential decentralised production with imports, regional trade, larger low-emission plants, blending, logistics, and advisory support. The goal is to identify intervention bundles that deliver the right nitrogen product to the right farmers at the right cost for the coming decades.

In the name of love: Policy imitation, political incentives, and local economic growth

Buyers' response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders' choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model's predictions. Traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains. JEL Codes: Q13; D22; O13; C93

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Inflammation and micronutrient status of children and adolescents in 12 countries are only weakly associated: The BRINDA Project

Women’s empowerment, crop productivity, and food security: Nationally representative panel data analysis in Malawi

Modernizing Bangladesh's social protection system: Priorities for greater effectiveness, inclusion, and resilience

Bangladesh has made substantial progress in reducing poverty and improving human development, with social protection playing an important role in protecting vulnerable households and strengthening human capital. The Government has demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, particularly through the adoption of the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) in 2015 and subsequent efforts to streamline and consolidate programs. Despite this progress, the social protection system faces significant challenges. It remains fragmented across numerous programs and ministries; targeting errors continue to exclude many vulnerable households while including others with less need; and benefit levels are often insufficient to provide meaningful protection against poverty, vulnerability, and shocks. A substantial share of social protection spending is also allocated to programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these gaps is becoming increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising living costs, slower economic growth, widening inequalities, and more frequent economic and climate-related shocks. Bangladesh now has an opportunity to modernize its social protection system around a more coherent, lifecycle- and vulnerability-based framework. Social protection should move beyond a narrow focus on poverty reduction to address risks and vulnerabilities across the lifecycle— including maternal and early childhood needs; nutritional and educational deprivation among school-age children; employment risks during the working years; disability; and income insecurity in old age. Investments in early childhood, particularly during the first 1,000 days of life, can yield substantial long-term benefits for nutrition, health, learning, and productivity. The system should respond more effectively to rising inequality, urban vulnerability, population ageing, and health-related shocks. This will require strengthening social assistance while progressively developing complementary social insurance mechanisms, including unemployment protection, employment injury insurance, maternity benefits, health protection, and contributory pension schemes. Overall, Bangladesh’s next phase of social protection reform should focus not simply on spending more, but on spending smarter—building a coherent, inclusive, adequate, life-cycle-oriented, and shock-responsive system that protects households from both persistent poverty and emerging vulnerabilities.

Cooperation and the management of local common resources in remote rural communities

It is widely recognized that local management of common pool resources can be more efficient and more effective than private markets or top-down government management, especially in remote rural communities in which the institutions may be weak or prone to elite capture. In this paper, we explore the propensity for cooperation in the management of local common resources by introducing a variant of a public goods game among remote rural communities in the state of Odisha, in eastern India. We explore various patterns of cooperation, including free riding behaviour, unconditional cooperation and conditional cooperation, in which individuals’ propensity toward cooperation is tied to their beliefs about the level of cooperation among their peers. We find that a significant portion of our sample fall into this latter category, but also that their expectations about the level of contributions among their peers are somewhat malleable. JEL classification: Q32, Q12, C72

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Baseline diet quality indicators and 6-month changes in iron and vitamin A biomarkers among rural Ghanaian adolescent schoolgirls: A secondary analysis of the Ten2Twenty-Ghana trial

Bundled interventions can transform food systems for health and planetary stability

A shift towards plant-rich diets is the primary demand-side lever for creating critical* “option space” to meet climate and environmental goals, while improving human health. Realising these co-benefits and managing potential impacts on labour demand, requires cross-sectoral policies that minimise trade-offs and support a just transition.