Publications and Datasets

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

After quantification: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

As the concept of soil health gains prominence, it becomes increasingly important to examine how states design and implement soil health policies. Does soil health offer a novel pathway to enact and legitimize institutional changes toward more sustainable farming systems, or does it risk becoming another neologism that preserves status quo, productivist agriculture? We explore these questions through an analysis of one of the most ambitious state-led initiatives organized around soil health: India’s Soil Health Card (SHC) scheme. The SHC scheme seeks to provide every farmer in the country with bi-annual soil test reports, based on the assumption that improved information will encourage more judicious use of fertilizers and pesticides. The assumption reflects a broader emphasis within the agricultural sciences on the importance of quantifying soil health. Drawing on government documents and farmer perception studies (n = 38), we find that although farmers view the cards positively, they make few substantive changes to their farming practices. As an illustrative case, India’s grand SHC scheme shows that quantification alone is insufficient and could even dampen momentum for transformative policy reforms. Effective and durable change lies in pairing efforts to quantify soil health with (a) plural epistemic approaches to knowledge production, (b) participatory models for knowledge dissemination, and (c) structural reforms in the agri-food system that address issues around land tenure and subsidies.

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country’s three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination). The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

This is an embargoed publication to be available on 10 September, 2026. Register for the launch event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/

Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.

The impact of targeted transfer programs on labour supply: Evidence from rural China

Preservation of the IFPRI record: A case study of institutional repository mergers and migrations

At its core, a repository migration is the transfer of records from one system to another. In some cases, it is more of an unraveling, repair, relocation, and rebuilding of a historic property. In 2024, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) library undertook its second migration from an independent CONTENTdm repository to a shared DSpace repository. The institute set an ambitious goal to complete the migration within a single contract cycle with CONTENTdm. Since 2012, the repository has functioned as a bibliographic metadata layer serving the main corporate website, numerous project sites, and the global consortium (CGIAR) website, as well as a digital publishing platform and institutional metrics and reporting system. The team started working with a combination of tools, including: Microsoft Excel, OpenRefine, and custom scripts. Microsoft Excel allowed staff to easily see and manipulate large amounts of data across different metadata fields. OpenRefine (version 3.7) was instrumental in normalizing and cleaning name and keyword variations, as well as locating and editing a single repeated datapoint. The scripts, created by a member of the team and author of this paper, saved hours of time and allowed the team to meet ambitious goals. The team successfully migrated over 20,000 records within 13 months while simultaneously improving metadata quality. Prior to the migration, about half of journal articles lacked external links and several dozen PDFs had been lost over time. Additionally, from 2008–2017, IFPRI’s records experienced an average of 40% link rot. All of these issues were resolved during this process. Furthermore, the IFPRI record is now interoperable with the other CGIAR institutions and external search engines. While repository and metadata management remain ongoing tasks, this migration represents a significant step forward in preserving institutional knowledge, adopting established standards and best practices in knowledge management, supporting consortium activities, and enhancing the visibility of agricultural research outputs.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

Food on the go: How engagement with the food environment affects adolescent diets in northern Vietnam

As adolescents grow older, they increasingly engage with the food environment. Our study aimed to: 1) assess the contribution of prepared out of home (POH) foods to the healthiness of adolescent diets and 2) identify socio-demographic factors associated with POH foods intake in a rural, a peri-urban, and an urban area of Vietnam. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 11–19-year-old adolescents (n = 2,861) and collected socio-demographic and dietary intake data (24-hour recall). The healthiness and micronutrient adequacy of diets was assessed using the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the micronutrient adequacy ratio (MAR) respectively. We used regression analyses with robust standard errors (to account for school-level clustering) to assess the consequences and identify the drivers of POH food intake. Over 80% of adolescents consumed foods POH on the previous day, contributing 22–26% of daily energy intake. Healthy food groups were underrepresented in POH foods, which were higher in fat, saturated fat, and sodium, but also had higher micronutrient density than foods prepared at home. POH intake was associated with higher energy intake and micronutrient adequacy, but lower diet healthiness. Socioeconomic status, female sex, pocket money, and smartphone ownership were associated with POH consumption, with site-specific differences. Food environments should be made healthier through front-of-package warning labels, reformulation (e.g., reducing milk fat and sugar), and restrictions on the marketing and availability of unhealthy foods combined with the promotion of healthy foods, snacks and meals.

Associations between hygiene practices and carcass contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms in bovine slaughter facilities in rural Kenya

Carcass contamination during slaughter poses a significant threat to meat safety and public health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This cross-sectional study, conducted in 25 bovine slaughter facilities in Busia County, Kenya, assessed contamination levels at four anatomical sites on cattle carcasses: rump, flank, brisket, and neck. The study also examined the association between slaughterhouse hygiene practices and microbial contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms. A total of 193 carcasses were sampled after carcass dressing before sectioning, and E. coli and coliform loads were quantified using MC-Media Pad®. Statistical analyses revealed that contamination levels varied significantly across carcass sampling sites for both coliforms (p = 0.008) and E. coli (p = 0.026), with the brisket showing markedly higher contamination than the rump for coliforms (median 2.15 vs 1.61 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.004) and E. coli (median 1.04 vs 0 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.020). Key risk factors for increased contamination included carcass contact with the floor, splashing water from wet floors, and visible fecal matter on animal hides. These findings highlight the need for targeted hygiene interventions during slaughter, improved infrastructure, and stronger enforcement of meat safety regulations to reduce contamination and ensure safer meat products for consumers.

From farmer-centred design to algorithmic participation: Navigating technical demands and normative discourses in digital extension

Digital extension and farmer-centric design are increasingly presented as complementary strategies for transforming agricultural innovation systems: digital extension promises scale and efficiency, while farmer-centric design is expected to ensure relevance, inclusivity, and legitimacy. This paper challenges the assumption that these approaches are naturally aligned. Through Critical Discourse Analysis, we examine how farmer-centricity is enacted within digital extension initiatives and how its normative commitments are reshaped as digital platforms evolve. Empirically, we analyse two digital extension platforms developed between 2014 and 2024, one in the Global North and one in the Global South. Drawing on public-facing media, organisational records, design documents, and technical walkthroughs of each platform, we trace how normative, technical, and interpretive frames interact across different phases of platform development. Our findings show that, in early phases, digital extension is framed as enabling farmer-centric design, supporting decentralised design practices, epistemic pluralism, and farmer sovereignty. Over time, however, farmer-centricity becomes instrumentalised to support the scaling of digital extension through data generation, peer diffusion, and environmental accountability, placing new forms of labour and responsibility onto farmers without a commensurate redistribution of authority. These tensions are not resolved but reconfigured through design practices, often obscured by the rhetoric of empowerment and responsiveness. We conceptualise this dynamic as algorithmic participation: a form of participation mediated through digital infrastructures that anticipate and steer farmer engagement in ways that stabilise existing innovation logics. The paper contributes to debates on farmer-centric design and digital extension by showing how even well-intentioned practices can reproduce structural inequalities.

A participatory framework to assess agricultural sustainability: Cover cropping as an illustrative example

This study developed an analysis‐oriented agricultural sustainability framework to assess how on‐farm biodiversity‐enhancing agricultural practices impact outcome‐based indicators of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Building on an existing national‐scale agricultural sustainability assessment framework, we adapted it to evaluate farm‐level practices. Using an iterative design, we engaged stakeholders through a farmer survey and workshop to refine indicator selection and ensure contextual relevance. We used biodiversity‐enhancing practices in the Midwestern United States as an illustrative example of how the framework could be applied. Workshop participants were asked to use cover crops as an example to consider how this class of practices affected agricultural sustainability. Our findings highlight that stakeholder engagement during framework development can improve the relevance and specificity of indicator selection, supporting more targeted quantitative analysis for decision‐making.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of iron, vitamin A, and zinc biofortification in selected low- and middle-income countries: A modelling study

Background Crop biofortification is an important tool to improve micronutrient deficiency, but the evidence of its cost-effectiveness remains limited. Objectives This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of biofortified crops to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiency in 13 countries. Methods We used the burden of disease (BoD) measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), supplemented by a literature review, to quantify DALYs resulting from micronutrient deficiencies. Data and assumptions from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were used to estimate micronutrient intake and the potential impact of biofortification on micronutrient intake to calculate the efficacy of biofortification in reducing DALYs under conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. The cost was estimated for 30 years (2024-2053) while the benefits were for 20 years (2034-2053). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), defined as additional cost per DALY averted, was estimated. Results The total cost of biofortification programs varied across countries, ranging from $4.28 million in Guatemala to $34.04 million in Nigeria over 30 years. The ICERs of biofortification varied by type of crop and country; regardless, all are cost-effective using GDP-based cut-offs, except for biofortified cassava and sweet potatoes in Zimbabwe. For example, for iron biofortification of beans under the conservative scenario, ICER was as low as $58.04 per DALY averted in Kenya and as high as $535.52 per DALY averted in Zimbabwe, demonstrating the range of cost-effectiveness of the intervention among the countries selected for the study. A similar pattern was found for iron biofortification of pearl millet; vitamin A biofortification of cassava, maize, and sweet potatoes; and zinc biofortification of rice, wheat, and maize in most countries. Conclusion Biofortification of staple crops by selective plant breeding is potentially cost-effective to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiencies.

Adolescent-selected food intake and engagement with the external food environment contribute to unhealthy diets in Accra, Ghana

Background As adolescents gain autonomy, they interact more independently with their food environments, increasing their vulnerability to rapidly changing and often unhealthy food environments. In Accra, Ghana, unhealthy foods and beverages are widely available and heavily marketed. Objective To assess the healthiness and nutrient adequacy of adolescents’ diets in Accra; and to examine whether diet healthiness is associated with independent adolescent food selection and their engagement with home, school and outlet food environments. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using quantitative 24-hour dietary recalls among 911 adolescents aged 12 to 18 years living in five low- and five middle-class neighborhoods in Accra. For each food and beverage consumed, we documented who selected it and where it was obtained and consumed. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the prevalence of adequate intake for fruits and vegetables, protein, fiber, total sugar, total fat, saturated fat and 11 micronutrients. Mixed effects models assessed associations between independent adolescent food selection and food acquisition location (home, school, or other food outlets), and diet healthiness and macro- and micronutrient intake. Results A large proportion of adolescents consumed excessive amounts of total sugar (49%) and total fat (44%) and inadequate amounts of fruits and vegetables (98%), fiber (45%), and eight of the eleven micronutrients assessed (39-100%). Greater adolescent-selected food intake (62% of energy intake, on average) was associated with lower GDQS and intakes of fruit and vegetables, protein, fiber, and six micronutrients, and with higher sugar intake (P<0.05). Greater reliance on foods from the external food environment (school: 14%, other outlets: 46%) showed similar associations with poorer dietary indicators. Conclusion Strengthening the design, implementation and enforcement of coordinated food policy bundles is needed to shift adolescents’ preferences towards healthy foods, and reduce the availability, accessibility, and appeal of unhealthy options in their food environments.

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

Using the 2017 Portuguese wildfires as empirical evidence from a Mediterranean climate country, this paper assesses the economy-wide and employment effects of wildfire-related capital and labor shocks through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended labor-market framework. The analysis focuses on how wildfire shocks interact with labor markets, affect aggregate welfare, and condition the effectiveness of public policy responses. The results show that labor-market disruptions amplify economic losses beyond direct physical damage. Among the policy scenarios examined, comprehensive responses combining infrastructure investment, sector-specific support, and household transfers provide the strongest mitigation of aggregate losses. Recovery and mitigation policies generate the strongest positive effects on GDP, while the fire suppression-cost scenario alone has limited effectiveness. Employment impacts are concentrated in the primary and tourism-related sectors, particularly forestry, agriculture, transport, and accommodation. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining labor-force participation during climate disasters and of combining capital restoration with household support. By quantifying the economy-wide trade-offs between wildfire damage, labor-market disruption, and public-response channels, the paper provides evidence relevant to wildfire-prone Mediterranean economies and to broader environmental-development debates.

Sustainable fisheries development and resilient coastal livelihoods in southern Yemen: Project research synthesis

This note synthesizes the research studies carried out under IFPRI’s Sustainable Fisheries Development and Resilient Coastal Livelihoods in Southern Yemen project. Key findings include: – Fisheries development policy and assistance in Southern Yemen have faced large gaps in data and knowledge—particularly regarding fish consumption and food security implications, use of ice for chilling fish, and measurement and monitoring of artisanal fishing activities. – Fish is a highly nutritious food, an important part of Yemeni diets, and much more affordable than meat. Improving household access to fish, especially in inland areas, is essential for improving food security and reducing malnutrition. Restoring and expanding domestic (and export) markets should be a priority of fisheries development policy. – Ice is widely used within some links of artisanal fisheries value chains, but fishers and market retailers employ ice strategically. Consumers’ willingness to pay for ice use is low compared to the high cost of ice and the demand for high-quality fish is currently very limited, making ice use unprofitable for many small fishers. Investments in energy supply and ice production to lower costs and in consumer awareness campaigns on food safety and fish quality to increase willingness to pay are crucial to maintain an uninterrupted cold chain and achieve quality-led value addition in artisanal fisheries value chains. – A complete fishing information and monitoring system for the Gulf of Aden that captures both artisanal and commercial fishing vessels is urgently needed for sustainable fisheries development. Deep-learning-based remote sensing provides a low-cost solution for high-frequency data collection to analyze and track difficult-to-detect artisanal fishing activities and changes in local fishing fleets.

The informal sector in China: The role of institutional reform and digital transformation on enterprise formalization

This paper examines the dynamic evolution of economic informality in China along two dimensions: business registration (the extensive margin) and formal labor protections within registered firms (the intensive margin). Leveraging administrative records alongside micro-survey data from OSOME (2020–2026) and ESIEC (2018 and 2025), we evaluate how institutional reforms and digital transformation shape formalization incentives. While market-oriented regulatory reforms—such as the landmark 2014 business registration reform—fueled an unprecedented expansion in formal enterprise creation, stringent labor regulations unintentionally inflated intensive-margin informality. Simultaneously, the rapid rise of digital platforms and fintech ecosystems has created a platform substitution effect, enabling micro-enterprises to access credit, build consumer trust, and operate flexibly without state licenses. Consequently, we observe an informality paradox: extensive-margin informality remains widespread and is counterintuitively higher in China’s most developed, highly digitized cities.

From satellite images to real-world impact

In the paddy fields of Odisha, India, many farmers cultivate land they do not own, and thus do not have land titles that can be used as collateral to obtain formal credit for agricultural activities. Instead, they must rely on informal, often high-interest loans. But digital technologies are offering new ways to integrate smallholders into the financial system. In Odisha, satellite images would prove to be a crucial tool to verify what farmers grow—providing an alternative form of collateral and reliable access to credit.

Determinants of food price transmission from international to domestic markets

Food price transmission determines the speed of and extent to which international food price shocks affect domestic markets and consumers, an issue of particular importance in low-income countries. Incomplete food price transmission is also implicated in exacerbating international food price volatility because it makes global supply and demand less elastic. This paper explores the factors that influence the degree of price transmission from international maize, rice, and wheat markets to domestic food markets. Using 147,000 observations of monthly food prices, we first estimate food price transmission in 711 markets in 81 countries. Then, the degree of food price transmission across these 711 markets is estimated as a function of country and commodity characteristics. The results from the first stage indicate that about half (48%) of the domestic food prices were cointegrated with their corresponding international grain price. Among the vector error correction (VEC) models, the median price transmission is 52% after 6 months and 69% after 12 months. Among the vector autoregressive (VAR) models, price transmission was markedly lower, with the median leveling off below 7% after four months. The second-stage results suggest that both market frictions and policy play a role in incomplete transmission of food prices. Food price transmission is significantly lower in landlocked countries, where grain imports or exports are a small share of domestic use, and in Africa and Asia relative to Europe and Latin America. Price transmission is also lower where grain tariffs are high and variable over time, suggesting that trade policy plays a role. These results appear relatively robust, with only minor changes when we estimate the model with different dependent variables, other combinations of independent variables, different thresholds for the stationarity tests, and alternative cointegration tests. The results have implications for the measurement of the welfare impact of international food price shocks and for strategies to reduce the volatility of international grain prices.

Myanmar monthly food price report – July 2026

Rice prices increased moderately in July 2026, with the national average rising by 3.6 percent month-on-month and 10.1 percent year-on-year. Regional price disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize prices declined following strong export activity earlier in the year, although prices remained well above year-earlier levels. Black gram and pigeon pea prices increased on expectations of stronger import demand from India, while green gram prices showed limited movements amid increasing quality requirements across export markets. Most export crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize prices declined following strong export activity earlier in the year, although prices remained well above year-earlier levels. Black gram and pigeon pea prices increased on expectations of stronger import demand from India, while green gram prices showed limited movements amid increasing quality requirements across export markets. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially above year-earlier levels, while month-on-month movements were mixed. Chicken and egg prices increased notably amid higher feed costs, limited supplies of large-sized chickens, and reduced egg production associated with higher input costs and disease outbreaks. Mutton prices remained at record highs. Fish prices also remained above previous year, although increased catches following the resumption of fishing activities contributed to lower prices for some fish products. The conflict in Iran and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major transit route for global oil and fertilizer trade, are raising concerns for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transportation, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. During the 2026 monsoon, some farmers reported cultivating smaller areas or reducing plowings because of higher fuel costs. Fertilizer prices also remain substantially above last year’s levels, while crop output prices have changed relatively little, reducing the profitability of fertilizer use and potentially leading to lower application rates and agricultural production. Flooding has affected monsoon rice cultivation in some areas, while flood warnings have been issued for other parts of the country, including areas along the Bago and Sittaung rivers. While the reported impacts on rice cultivation remain geographically limited, continued monitoring of flood conditions will be important given potential implications for crop production, transportation, and food supply chains.

Collaborative leadership strengthens research capacity and climate action: Lessons from Tamil Nadu, India

Key takeaways – Local leadership builds lasting research capacity. In a collaborative project in Tamil Nadu, transferring ownership to local partners helped to ensure long-term sustainability. – Aligning research with local priorities improves impact. Collaboration with local and national stakeholders strengthened adoption and relevance. – Capacity development goes beyond technical training. Management, communication, and leadership skills were critical to project success.

A gender-just food systems transition

Financing social protection in Africa: Lessons for strengthening social protection systems in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has made significant strides in its effort to expand social protection programs, both in terms of expanding coverage and in terms of variety and investment in these programs. However, Ethiopia’s social protection system continues to face significant challenges amid growing demand for social assistance and competing needs. Despite the expansion in coverage, the share of population benefiting from social protection programs remains far below demand and global averages. Similarly, spending and sources of finance for social protection remain relatively limited, with the financing structure of many programs being heavily dependent on external donor support, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. At the same time, the country continues to face an increasing demand for social assistance due to climate shocks, conflict, and economic volatility. In this paper, we compile evidence and compare Ethiopia’s experience with selected successful cases (from Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa) to draw lessons for strengthening sustainability in financing of social protection programs. By assessing both the achievements and remaining challenges, we draw recommendations on how Ethiopia can strengthen its social protection system, both in terms of coverage and sustainability. While Ethiopia can still increase public finance on social protection programs and improve allocation of public finance as well as efficiency in targeting and delivering social protection, we also identify some innovative and unconventional sources of finance to support safety net programs. These include: social or development impact bonds, climate and disaster risk financing, as well as blended public-private investments for development and social goals. We also identify some domestic experiences and community-level indigenous arrangements that can be scaled-up further. We finally highlight that tapping these financing mechanisms and arrangements entail strengthening domestic and indigenous institutions as well as trust in public-private partnerships.

When the rains fail, who goes hungry? Rainfall, gender, and child nutrition in Papua New Guinea

Key takeaways – Low rainfall hurts young girls’ nutrition. A study in PNG found that below-average rainfall in a child’s first year of life reduced height-for-age and weight-for-age scores for girls under 5, while boys showed no comparable effects. – Even routine rainfall shortfalls matter. The analysis focused on normal year-to-year rainfall variation, not major disasters, yet still found measurable impacts on child nutrition in rural PNG. – Drought responses should consider gender. As PNG prepares for a potential El Niño-driven drought, policymakers may need targeted measures to protect girls and address unequal household burdens during food shortages.

Toward scalable agricultural insurance: Early evidence from a dynamic trigger program in Kenya

Smallholder farmers in Kenya face substantial production and marketing risks driven by climate variability. In the arid and semi-arid areas of Eastern Kenya, rainfall is erratic even within a single season, yet most farmers depend on rain-fed production with little or no access to irrigation, credit, or savings to fall back on. Without a way to cushion these shocks, farmers are often reluctant to invest in inputs such as improved seed, fertilizer, and better agronomic practices that could raise their yields and resilience in good years. It is this chronic exposure to unpredictable and largely uninsurable risk that led the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture, to design and scale an agricultural index insurance product for farmers in Eastern Kenya under the Kenya Agricultural Insurance Program (KAIP).

Policy responses to rising global fuel prices: A rapid assessment for Papua New Guinea

Global crude oil prices have surged following the war in Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, creating a dual economic challenge for Papua New Guinea (PNG). Rising import costs have triggered severe imported inflation, while Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil exports deliver windfall revenues. In response, the government introduced a K1 billion (USD 230 million) relief package to freeze fuel prices and waive excise duties and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). This study examines three policy issues: the pass-through of higher import costs to domestic food and non-food prices and their effects on food consumption; the broader macroeconomic implications of sustained global fuel shocks; and the fiscal trade-offs of fuel subsidies against LNG export gains. Short-run price multiplier analysis shows rapid transmission of import costs to consumer prices and household microsimulation analysis shows commensurate effects on household food consumption. Medium-term Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model simulations reveal PNG’s dependence on refined petroleum imports leaves GDP vulnerable to contraction, even as LNG revenues rise. Windfalls accrue mainly to capital-intensive resource firms, while real exchange rate appreciation undermines competitiveness. Fuel subsidies stabilize consumer prices but cannot offset wider macroeconomic volatility. Policy options include recalibrating subsidies to allow gradual price adjustment, maintaining a managed exchange rate with controlled depreciation, and diversifying exports beyond LNG to strengthen resilience against external shocks.

Modernizing Bangladesh’s social protection system: Priorities for greater effectiveness

Bangladesh has made considerable progress in reducing poverty and improving human development, with social protection playing an important role in protecting vulnerable households and supporting human capital. The Government has demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, particularly through the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) adopted in 2015 and subsequent efforts to streamline programs. Despite this progress, the social protection system faces persistent challenges. The system remains fragmented across numerous programs and ministries, significant targeting errors persist, and benefit levels are often inadequate. A substantial share of social protection spending is directed toward programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these shortcomings has become increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising food prices, slower economic growth, and climate-related risks. Bangladesh now has an important opportunity to modernize social protection. Recent efforts to consolidate programs and the introduction of the Family Card Program provide a foundation for building a more coherent, inclusive, and effective system. The priority should be to improve the quality and effectiveness of spending rather than simply increase the overall budget. This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget.

The gendered game: Effects of experiential learning on decision-making and water saving in India

This paper addresses two key questions related to gender equity, agricultural production, and sustainable natural resource management. First, given the importance of women’s decision-making in agriculture for their own empowerment and better agricultural outcomes, what are effective ways to strengthen women’s participation in agricultural decision-making? Second, is women’s participation in agricultural decisions associated with more water-conserving production choices? We analyze these questions by examining the impact of a novel experiential learning intervention with games, debriefing, and crop water budgeting, designed to address groundwater depletion in India. Results of a randomized control trial in 472 communities indicate that playing the game significantly increased women’s participation in choosing the crops their household grows in the post-monsoon season—specifically, their likelihood of deciding alone. Men who played the game were also more likely to make crop choice decisions alone, though the effect was smaller. Path analysis shows women’s involvement in crop decision-making is associated with more water-conserving decisions: women who decide alone report their household grows significantly less water-consumptive crops and irrigates less land in the post-monsoon season, when groundwater is scarce. Even when women decide jointly with their husbands, households grow less water-consumptive crops, though the effect is smaller. By contrast, when men and women decide with other relatives, households cultivate more area overall, suggesting that the learning from the game is less effective when more people are involved in decisions. Experiential learning games are thus a promising strategy to strengthen women’s agricultural decision-making, and this may also lead to more sustainable resource management.

Market intelligence, entrepreneurial behavior, and profitability in agriculture: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in northern Uganda

Smallholder farmers often make production decisions with limited information about market conditions, leading to suboptimal farm profits. This challenge is particularly important in the production of fruits and vegetables, which are often rich in micronutrients and can serve as high-value cash crops but are also highly perishable. We evaluate a bundled, market-oriented horticulture intervention in northern Uganda designed to shift farmers’ mindset from “grow and sell” to “grow to sell”, by promoting their engagement in active market intelligence activities, in addition to support for production. Using a cluster-randomized design combined with panel data methods, we find that treated farmers increased production revenues by 20–25%, profit margins by about 11 percentage points, and prices received by roughly 20%, without increasing family labor use. These gains are accompanied by noticeable behavioral changes, including more frequent and more diverse collection of price information and expanded buyer networks. Mediation analysis indicates that improvements in market intelligence explain a meaningful share of these effects. The results suggest that interventions that strengthen farmers’ ability to align production decisions with market demand can generate substantial income gains. These findings highlight the importance of integrating market intelligence into agricultural extension systems.

What will it take to sustain a national school feeding program in Nigeria? Lessons from two decades of implementation

Nigeria’s experience with school feeding over the past two decades has been characterized by repeated starts, interruptions, and attempts to rebuild the program. The Home-Grown School Feeding and Health Programme was launched in 2005, but implementation was discontinued several years later after federal funding ceased. The program was revived in 2016 as the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP) and expanded to a reported 9.9 million beneficiaries by 2022. However, NHGSFP implementation then stalled, and the program was formally suspended in January 2024. NHGSFP has since been restructured as the Renewed Hope National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (RHNHGSFP). However, implementation has so far been limited to pilot activities in Lagos and Kano states. Experiences at the state level show that school feeding programs can succeed when state governments are willing and able to finance and manage the program. Osun continued its program after federal funding was withdrawn. The state later operated O-Meals with state government support, although the program is no longer running. Zamfara and Kebbi provide a more recent example. Zamfara state introduced a school feeding pilot in 2025 and has since begun expanding it, with early evidence of increased school attendance, while Kebbi is currently feeding some junior and senior secondary schools through state funding. These experiences point to the importance of state government commitment, financing, and capacity to manage program delivery. Several weaknesses are evident across the federal and state experiences. School feeding programs still lack a dedicated national statutory framework. Coordination between institutions and across levels of government remains weak. Financing has not kept pace with rising food prices, and the role of aggregators and wholesalers in the food supply chain is not adequately monitored. Finally, school feeding program monitoring systems focus more on the number of children fed than on whether the program is achieving its intended education, nutrition, and livelihood outcomes. The main issue, therefore, is not whether school feeding can work in Nigeria. It can. Rather, it is whether the country has the institutional arrangements to keep school feeding programs running when political leadership, funding conditions, and administrative structures change. The experience of the past two decades suggests that another relaunch of a national school feeding program, without addressing these institutional weaknesses, risks repeating the same cycle of expansion and interruption. The focus should therefore be on putting in place the legal, financing, coordination, supply-chain, and accountability arrangements needed to support a program that can be sustained over time.

Conservation and restoration actions in a multifunctional landscape: Lessons from Tunisia

Key takeaways Multifunctional landscapes deliver food, income, and environmental gains together. Across four sites in northwestern Tunisia, treating land, water, agriculture, and ecosystems as one system improved soil, water, biodiversity, productivity, and incomes at once. There is no single template for success—many models work. Farmer-led innovation, community action, public forest management, and public-private partnership each succeed; choosing the right one depends on local land tenure and governance. Evidence drives adoption—yet the full value of these landscapes has yet to be documented. Measurement converts skeptics into investors. An IFPRI-ICARDA effort to evaluate ecosystem services across these sites aims to close that gap.

Transmission of the 2026 geopolitical energy shock: Fuel, food prices, and welfare implications in Nigeria

Key findings: – The 2026 geopolitical energy shock increased global oil prices by approximately 60 percent, leading to a 14–15 percent increase in domestic fuel prices in Nigeria. – Higher fuel prices were transmitted rapidly to food markets through increased transportation, storage, milling, and distribution costs, with the strongest impacts observed for local rice, imported rice, wheat flour, and garri. – Food prices exhibited high persistence, suggesting that the effects of the energy shock are likely to extend beyond the initial shock period. – Estimates from a simulation of the shock’s impact on household welfare show increases in food poverty (+3.4 percentage points) and undernourishment (+2.9 percentage points) and declines in food expenditure (−3.9 percent) and calorie intake (−3.1 percent). – Urban households experience larger declines in food expenditure and diet quality, while rural households experience larger increases in food poverty. – The findings highlight the importance of strengthening transport systems, improving energy security, and expanding targeted social protection to reduce the vulnerability of food systems to external energy shocks.

IFPRI country and regional offices report: January–June 2026

The first half of 2026 was a period of continued growth, adaptation, and strategic engagement for IFPRI’s country and regional offices under the Development Strategy and Governance Unit. Across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Pacific, country and regional teams strengthened their role as trusted partners to governments, regional organizations, and development partners, combining rigorous analytical work with sustained policy engagement, capacity strengthening, and implementation support. The operating environment remained challenging. Many countries continued to grapple with fiscal constraints, climate shocks, conflict and insecurity, food price volatility, and evolving donor priorities. Governments increasingly sought practical support in identifying policy options and designing, sequencing, and implementing reforms. Across the portfolio, IFPRI responded by deepening its engagement in areas such as food systems transformation, agricultural productivity, nutrition, climate resilience, digital innovation, social protection, and institutional strengthening. Several country offices reached important milestones during the reporting period. The establishment of IFPRI’s new office in Papua New Guinea significantly expanded the Institute’s presence in the Pacific, while country teams in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, Malawi, Bangladesh, and India strengthened long-standing partnerships with governments through policy support, analytical work, and implementation-focused engagement. In Sudan and Myanmar, IFPRI continued to demonstrate the value of sustained analytical capacity in fragile settings, providing timely evidence to inform humanitarian response, market monitoring, and recovery planning. China, Egypt, and the regional offices further strengthened IFPRI’s contribution to international policy dialogue, South–South cooperation, and regional collaboration. A notable feature of the reporting period was the increasing emphasis on implementation. Across countries, IFPRI’s work extended beyond policy analysis to include support for implementation readiness, institutional capacity, policy coordination, and adaptive learning. Governments increasingly turned to IFPRI for assistance in translating evidence into operational programs, reflecting growing recognition that successful development depends on sound policy choices and effective institutions and delivery systems. Partnerships remained central to this work. Country and regional offices continued to work closely with national governments, regional organizations, CGIAR science programs, universities, development partners, civil society, and the private sector. These collaborations strengthened both the quality and uptake of research while helping to mobilize new resources and expand IFPRI’s reach. The reporting period also demonstrated the resilience of country teams in responding to funding uncertainty through diversification of partnerships and closer integration across IFPRI’s research portfolio. Taken together, the first half of 2026 saw the continued evolution of IFPRI’s country and regional offices into a global network of embedded policy platforms. Although the largest concentration of activity remains in Africa, the growing engagement across South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Pacific illustrates the increasing reach of IFPRI’s country-based model. By combining scientific excellence with long-term partnerships and implementation-oriented policy support, these platforms are enabling IFPRI to respond more effectively to diverse national and regional priorities while generating lessons that benefit countries around the world.

Closing the gender and youth gap for healthier soils: Women’s and youth’s agency as levers of change

Healthy soils are fundamental to food security, climate resilience, and sustainable livelihoods, yet soil degradation affects up to 40 percent of the world’s land, threatening agricultural productivity and leading to significant economic and environmental costs. Recurring fuel, fertilizer, and food price crises limit farmers’ access to fertility-enhancing inputs and increase the risk of soil nutrient mining and land degradation, with negative consequences for both soil health and food security. Effective soil management requires investments and informed decision-making, but these are shaped by social norms, gendered roles, and resource constraints, including women’s and youth’s limited access to land ownership, credit and inputs, and extension services. These same constraints also limit the uptake of women’s valuable knowledge about soils and soil management. With 60 percent of youth in Africa working in agriculture, obstacles preventing them from accessing land and agricultural credit likewise dramatically lower the effectiveness of today’s soil health recommendations. Importantly, virtually all fertilizer, soil health, and plant nutrient interventions continue to overlook gender- and age-related inequalities in access to resources, decision-making power, and benefits, which reduces their effectiveness. Gender- and youth-responsive approaches to soil health management are needed to accelerate the adoption of effective practices; improve agricultural productivity, food security, and nutrition; and promote inclusive agricultural transformation.

Rethinking digital inclusion: User agency in agri-advisory design and delivery

Key takeaways -Digital inclusion for agricultural advisory tools requires more than access and usability. Farmers should also have agency to shape how technologies are designed and used. -Farmers are active innovators, not passive users. Their knowledge, feedback, and adaptations are essential for making digital tools relevant and effective. -Low adoption is a predictable outcome of poor design. Digital tools work best when they reflect farmers’ needs, priorities, and local realities.

IFPRI-Sudan, Evidence and partnerships for resilient markets, rural livelihoods, and recovery in Sudan: Portfolio and partnership overview

Sudan’s protracted conflict has created a profound humanitarian, economic, and institutional emergency. Reliable evidence is difficult to generate precisely when it is most needed for targeting assistance, protecting livelihoods, restoring markets, and preparing for recovery. Since May 2022, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has worked through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), combining conflict-adapted data collection, economic and policy analysis, impact evaluation, institutional assessment, capacity sharing and strengthening, and sustained policy engagement. IFPRI-Sudan now operates a broad portfolio spanning market intelligence, food security, agriculture, livelihoods, social protection, private-sector resilience, political economy, and economic recovery. The portfolio applies IFPRI’s 2026-2030 systems framework to Sudan’s fragile and conflict-affected context: clarifying conditions and outlooks; testing and scaling solutions; strengthening enabling institutions; and building durable tools, methods, and capacity across five interconnected themes. The program serves humanitarian and development decision-makers at the same time, producing evidence that is immediately usable while strengthening the analytical and institutional foundations for an inclusive, sustainable recovery. The IFPRI Sudan publications catalogue and interactive tools provide continuously updated, open-access entry points to this evidence. This overview presents established platforms and on-going work, recent research outputs, and separately labeled research ideas under development. Those ideas are adaptable to different partnerships and should not be interpreted as funded projects or commitments unless formal agreements are completed.

Intersecting gender and youth financial inclusion in agrifood systems: Evidence from northern Nigeria

The agrifood system employs one-third of the global workforce, yet young women and men continue to face persistent constraints to joining this workforce, including financial exclusion. Financial exclusion constrains agricultural employment by limiting young people’s ability to engage in work and to scale operations. Yet the existing literature often overlooks how gender and youth intersect within these dynamics. Using intersectionality theory and institutional analysis, this study examines barriers to financial access and adaptation strategies among young men and women (ages 18–30) in northern Nigeria’s agrifood systems. The analysis draws on 61 semi-structured interviews and 51 focus group discussions with young women and men, alongside key informant interviews with financial service providers and market actors, across five northern Nigerian states with large populations that are “unbanked,” meaning not engaged with formal financial institutions. Drawing on these qualitative data, the study reveals that formal and informal financial institutions jointly reproduce patterns of unequal gendered access. While young men leverage wider mobility and networks to secure trading capital, young women’s restricted mobility and limited collateral confine them to smallscale processing with few growth prospects. Financial exclusion is further compounded by geography, insecurity, and the gendered structure of digital finance. Youth adapt to these institutional gaps through collective savings, trust-based credit, and in-kind payments. The study calls for gender-sensitive, digitally inclusive financial services that complement informal systems, offering an integrated institutional–intersectional framework for promoting inclusive agrifood systems transformation. Its central contribution is an institutional–intersectional analysis of financial exclusion in agrifood systems, showing how formal and informal institutions jointly, rather than separately, produce gendered patterns of access.

What is the current evidence on the effectiveness of climate finance interventions in improving climate resilience and socioeconomic outcomes among smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

Climate finance is central to climate-resilient development, yet evidence on its effects on smallholder farmers remains fragmented across financing instruments and outcome measures. This study conducts a systematic review, guided by PRISMA 2020, to assess how grants, concessional loans, insurance, carbon finance, public investment, and private capital influence the livelihoods and resilience of smallholder farmers in developing countries, with attention to women. The review will synthesize impacts on access to climate-smart technologies, irrigation, improved seeds, advisory services, markets, and livelihood diversification, as well as outcomes including productivity, income stability, food security, adaptive capacity, asset accumulation, and women’s economic empowerment. It will examine distributional effects, implementation conditions, and evidence gaps across regions and farmer groups. By linking finance mechanisms to intermediate and long-term outcomes, the study aims to identify which forms of climate finance work, for whom, and under what conditions, thereby informing inclusive and effective climate finance policy and programming.

Implications of ice use on consumers’ willingness to pay for fresh fish: Findings from experimental auctions in Hadramawt fish markets

An experimental auction conducted with 426 fresh fish consumers in Mukalla and Qusayir fish markets in Yemen reveals the following key findings: – There is a modest price premium of 77 YER per fish for fish that is sold on ice compared with fish not sold on ice, across the sample. – Compared with the sample average, the price premium in Mukalla is more than two times higher, with a difference of 162 YER per fish between fish sold on ice and not. – There is no price premium for fish on ice in Qusayir. – More than 60 percent of shoppers in both markets have positive perceptions about the use of ice to improve fish quality. – The use of ice is not the most important consideration when shoppers are making their purchasing decisions, rather, the price of fish is deemed most important. – The price premium appears to be too low to incentivize retailers to offer fish on ice to shoppers, considering high costs of ice. Fish is highly perishable and requires an uninterrupted cold chain to maintain both observable, organoleptic quality characteristics and food safety, which is not directly observable. Yet the use of ice by artisanal fishers and fish retailers in coastal markets for fresh fish is limited in Hadramawt Governorate–the center of Yemen’s artisanal fisheries in the Gulf of Aden (Belton et al., 2026). While increased use of ice by fishers and retailers could improve fish quality and safety in consumer markets, rigorous evidence is lacking on consumers’ perceptions about the use of ice and their willingness to purchase fish placed on ice.

Count on me: Shocks and formal versus informal assistance in Somalia

Somali households face repeated drought, conflict, and price shocks, and rely on both formal and informal support to manage these shocks—but existing evidence only examines one channel at a time. We find that informal support reaches twice as many households as formal support (64 versus 32 percent), with 29 percent of households receiving neither. IDP residence raises formal receipt by 36 percentage points; consumption poverty predicts neither channel. Only informal support tracks local conditions: a one standard deviation rise in produced staple prices raises informal receipt by 6.5 percentage points. There is little evidence of pronounced gender heterogeneity in these patterns.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, July 2026

Retail prices of maize increased on average by 8 percent in July. Prices rose most sharply in the Southern region, increasing interregional differences. Continued maize imports through all monitored border locations helped keep Malawian prices low.

Putting advocacy into practice at the Gen Z Food & Hunger Summit

Key takeaways -Youth participation is essential for lasting food security progress. Gen Z leaders are helping shape policies and programs that address hunger and strengthen food systems. -Successful advocacy blends evidence with personal experience. Data and real-world stories can make a stronger case for policy action. -Hands-on engagement builds confidence and leadership skills. Direct conversations with policymakers helped participants turn advocacy training into action.

Reviving millets in India: Understanding consumption decline and demand-side constraints

Millets are increasingly promoted as climate-resilient and nutrient-dense crops in India’s food systems transformation. Yet, despite rising policy support, their consumption continues to decline. This paper analyzes long-term trends and demand-side determinants of millet consumption using nationally representative data from Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys (2011–2012, 2022–2023, 2023–2024). Results show a steep decline in per capita millet consumption of more than 80 percent in rural areas since the late 1980s and a sharp reduction in the share of millets in total cereal consumption. Using a double hurdle model, we find that millet consumption remains concentrated among rural, lower-income, and less-educated households, with limited uptake among urban and higher-income groups. Participation in the Public Distribution System (PDS) increases the likelihood of consumption but reduces consumption intensity, indicating substitution with subsidized rice and wheat. We document a large production–consumption gap of nearly 14 million tons, suggesting increasing diversion of millets toward feed and processing uses. The findings highlight the need to rebalance cereal policies and strengthen demand-side incentives to integrate millets into modern food systems.

Paving the way: The impact of road infrastructure on agricultural productivity in isolated African settings

Road infrastructure is a key driver of agricultural growth and transformation. Using three large nationally representative, randomly sampled survey datasets and group-time difference-in-difference estimation strategies, this study establishes the relationship between paved road access and crop productivity in Malawi. Results reveal significant positive effects of access to paved roads on crop productivity, as measured by the average value product of land. They further reveal a growing impact over time, with estimated productivity increases ranging from 35% to 57% over a span of 10 years. This confirms that road infrastructure is a key enabler of sustained agricultural productivity growth, thus providing a strong justification for the allocation of more public resources toward investments in rural road networks that can improve market access, reduce transport costs and postharvest losses, and create incentives for the adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies.

Understanding soil health in practice: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

Key takeaways -India’s Soil Health Card scheme has reached hundreds of millions of farmers but simplified soil health into a limited set of standardized measurements, a study shows. -Providing information alone was not enough to change farmer fertilizer practices or encourage widespread adoption of recommendations. -Stronger farmer engagement and local input are needed to make government-led soil health programs more effective.

Limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Evidence from a Malawi experiment

Key takeaways -Fertilizer recommendations derived from soil tests of farmers’ plots, when provided on their own, produced no measurable change in fertilizer use or maize yields among Malawian smallholder farmers. -The same recommendation paired with a $100 voucher raised fertilizer use on the soil-tested plot and lifted maize yields by about 20%. -Yet voucher recipients generally did not follow the recommendations, spending the money on a mix of fertilizers closely resembling that offered by the standard subsidy program.

Measuring the state of global food insecurity: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Key takeaways -Food insecurity measures often disagree. Different indicators can suggest very different trends and identify different countries as most vulnerable. -Data gaps hinder accurate monitoring. Low-income and crisis-affected countries are the least likely to conduct the surveys needed to track food insecurity. -Stronger country-led surveys are essential. More coordinated, high-frequency data collection could improve food security monitoring and policy responses.

Can digital financial services improve household coping capacity? Evidence from nationally representative cross-sectional data in Kenya

Digital financial services (DFS) have expanded financial access in Kenya, but their contribution to household coping capacity may differ substantially across product types. This paper examines trends and socioeconomic correlates of DFS adoption and the associations between DFS use and household coping capacity using nationally representative FinAccess surveys from 2019, 2021, and 2024. The analysis combines descriptive statistics and pooled logistic regressions with inverse-probability-weighted-regression adjustment and propensity score matching. We distinguish between mobile banking savings, mobile money savings, mobile banking loans, mobile provider loans, and app-based digital credit. Mobile phone ownership, internet access, education, income, and financial decision-making are important correlates of adoption, though significant gender and regional disparities remain. Digital savings show the broadest and most consistent positive associations with household coping capacity. Mobile banking savings are associated with an increase of 14 percentage points in emergency saving, an increase of 7.5 percentage points in access to emergency funds, and reductions of 4 and 2.7 percentage points in food insecurity and difficulty accessing medical care, respectively. Mobile banking loans provide narrower benefits, mainly for financial planning and emergency liquidity. In contrast, app-based loans are associated with reduced emergency savings and financial endurance. The findings show that the welfare implications of DFS depend critically on product type. Savings-led digital finance can strengthen household preparedness, while short-term app-based credit may increase financial vulnerability.

Unlocking climate finance for Kenya’s women dairy farmers

Key takeaways – Women dairy farmers in Kenya face growing climate risks but often cannot access the finance needed to adapt and protect their livelihoods. – A recent gathering brought together farmers, other stakeholders, and finance partners to explore ways to develop digital lending tools and gender-focused finance. – A proposed climate finance consortium could connect farmers, lenders, cooperatives, and researchers to expand access to suitable climate investments.

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices

Key takeaways -Wheat prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as drought and Black Sea shipping disruptions tighten global supplies. -Global wheat production is expected to decline among major exporters, reducing available stocks and export volumes. -Market volatility is increasing as weather risks, conflict, and trade disruptions create greater uncertainty for wheat markets.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2026

This report monitors prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in June 2026, covering cereals, pulses, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Commodity prices generally increased during the month, particularly for wheat flour, pulses, vegetables, meat products, cooking oil, sugar, and fuel, while perceived availability declined across most food and input categories, indicating tightening market conditions. Fuel price increases in parallel markets, depreciation of the Sudanese pound, and persistent regional disparities, especially in Darfur and Kordofan states, continued to place pressure on market access and affordability. Surveyed traders reported fewer supply chain, liquidity, and demand-related constraints than in previous months, although challenges remained concentrated in conflict-affected areas such as Khartoum and North Darfur. Despite rising prices and weaker availability, most merchants expected to maintain or expand trading activities over the following one to three months, suggesting cautious optimism about market continuity. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2026

This report provides an update on prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in July 2026, covering staple foods, vegetables, livestock products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Prices increased across most commodity groups, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, meat products, sugar, cooking oil, fertilizers, and fuel, while trader-reported availability generally declined, indicating worsening market pressures and tighter supplies. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with Darfur and Kordofan states consistently recording some of the highest food and fuel prices and lower commodity availability. Market actors reported increased supply chain and demand-related challenges compared with June, although financial constraints remained relatively limited and most traders expected to maintain or expand their trading activities in the coming months. The report highlights the combined effects of rising parallel-market exchange rates, increasing input and fuel costs, and declining market availability on food affordability and market performance in Sudan. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Agricultural recovery and resilience in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project baseline survey of farmers

This report presents the findings from a baseline survey of farmers conducted as part of IFPRI’s impact evaluation of a sub-component of the food security component of the THABAT project in Sudan. The report documents farmers’ pre-intervention conditions across agricultural production, input access, climate-smart practices, food security, market conditions, and institutional trust in the three states in which the project is being implemented—Kassala, Northern, and River Nile. Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on Component 2 of the project, which aims to enhance food security through directly providing agricultural production inputs, both goods and services, to farmers. The baseline survey covered 1,308 beneficiary farmers from 115 farmer organizations across the three project states during the 2025/26 agricultural year. The main findings from the analysis of the survey data include: • Beneficiary farmers demonstrate relatively strong agricultural production potential despite operating in a fragile and conflict-affected environment. • Agricultural input support from the THABAT project reached most households, especially climate-adapted improved seeds for wheat, sorghum, and vegetables, and DAP and urea inorganic fertilizers. • However, adoption of climate-smart and adaptive agricultural practices, beyond the use of climate‑adapted improved seeds and fertilizers, generally remains low. • The food security indicators of beneficiary farmers are stronger than those seen in broader crisis-affected populations in Sudan. However, food insecurity levels vary substantially across the three project states. • Farmers continue to face major structural constraints to their economic activities that are related to inflation and currency fluctuations. They also face significant barriers in accessing markets, financial services, and technology, and are subject to substantial conflict-related risks.

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Interpersonal communication and maternal behavioral practice: A case study of explanatory causal machine learning in Nepal

Background There is increasing interest not only in whether a program produced impacts but also the mechanisms through which the impacts were produced. Studies of nutrition interventions have frequently highlighted the role of nutrition education interventions, but few studies have investigated the paths through which those interventions achieve impact. Objectives We assessed the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on behavioral practice and the degree to which that effect operated through 2 key pathways: improved awareness and knowledge. We also conducted a comparative case study examining the differences between machine learning (ML) and structural equation model (SEM) approaches. Methods We used data from the endline cross-sectional survey of the quasi-experimental Suaahara study of 2040 mothers with a child less than 2 years of age. We estimated the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on her nutrition-related practices and the indirect effects through improvements in awareness and knowledge using ML and conventional SEMs. Models were adjusted for household, child, and maternal factors as well as household location. Results Maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker translated into practicing more of the ideal, promoted nutrition-related practices. Both methods suggested a similar total effect—ML: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.78) and SEM: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.72). ML models, however, attributed a much larger proportion of that total effect to indirect effects operating through awareness and knowledge (ML: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.33; SEMs: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.21). Conclusions Interpersonal communication improved nutrition-related practices, in part due to increasing one’s awareness and knowledge. The disparities in results between ML and SEMs suggested that the production of effects is a more complex, nonlinear or interactive function of awareness, knowledge, treatment and covariates than what is captured by simple linear models.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

Absent to care? The effect of parental migration on children’s nutrition, health, and cognition in rural Gansu Province of China

Enhancing farmers’ access to neglected crop seeds for healthy diets in a changing climate: six recommendations for policy action

Food insecurity and poor diets undermine human health, livelihoods, and aspirations. Climate change further exacerbates the problem of achieving zero hunger. Promoting the production of a diverse portfolio of nutrient-dense, climate-resilient crops enables food supply for healthy diets in the coming years and decades. Many are underutilized even though they are considered opportunity crops, with an unrealized potential to improve food security and dietary quality amid climate change. Limited access to quality seed for these crops is a major bottleneck in their supply, as the current policy environment does not support farmers in broadening their portfolio with these crops. This paper identifies three key challenges that should be addressed to enable farmers to access quality seed of opportunity crops at scale. These are to make the diversity of opportunity crops (i) a priority for policy (ii) available for evaluation and breeding, and (iii) accessible to farmers, especially women and other disadvantaged groups. Six policy actions are recommended to address these challenges, which, if implemented, are likely to have both short- and long-term impacts in increasing farmers’ access to quality seeds of opportunity crops. Adopting these policy actions will help mainstream opportunity crops into seed systems as part of a broader strategy to diversify food systems from seed to plate.

Trends, determinants, and anthropometric consequences of low birthweight in Indian children: A prospective analysis of national data

Background Low birthweight (LBW) is a major concern for child survival and growth, and India accounts for the highest number of such cases globally. Studies have examined determinants of birthweight and child growth but little evidence exists on how birthweight influences growth outcomes during early childhood. This paper examines associations between maternal, household, and health-related factors, LBW, and growth faltering, and explores childhood growth trajectories across birthweight groups. Methods Data from three waves of India’s National Family Health Survey were used to examine heaping-adjusted trends and predictors of LBW. Regression-based decomposition was used to quantify the way in which changes in predictors could reduce future LBW prevalence. Trajectories of childhood anthropometry by LBW status and determinants were examined by using smoothing and regression methods. Results The LBW prevalence between 2000 and 2020 was 20% (unadjusted) and 40% (heaping-adjusted). Improvements in maternal stature, weight, household wealth, and antenatal care coverage could yield the largest future reductions in LBW. Children born with LBW had 1.5 times higher odds of being underweight and 1.3 times higher odds of stunting. Maternal short stature, underweight, and poverty were associated with higher odds of subsequent anthropometric faltering regardless of LBW. Conclusion Findings show the dominant role of maternal nutrition in birthweight and childhood growth outcomes. Once a child is born with LBW, there is limited potential to prevent subsequent anthropometric failure. To break the intergenerational cycle of undernutrition, programs must prioritize improved nutrition for girls beginning early in life and sustained through adolescence and preconception.

The state of global food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, emergency responses, and rationally allocating foreign aid. For decades, global food security monitoring relied on the FAO’s prevalence of undernourishment, but this indicator’s fundamental limitations led the FAO to develop the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and adopt the unaffordability of the healthy diet. In parallel, The World Bank monitors monetary poverty, arguably a food insecurity indicator in its own right. In this study we assess whether this larger suite of indicators agrees on: (a) which countries are most food insecure; and (b) whether global food insecurity is really deteriorating. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. Longstanding criticisms of the prevalence of undernourishment still apply, while rising undernourishment in the past decade is driven by modelled increases in calorie inequality that are inconsistent with income inequality trends. The FIES fares no better: severe FIES food insecurity is higher in several Latin American and Caribbean countries than in extremely food-insecure African countries such as Niger. The World Bank’s poverty and healthy diet affordability monitoring efforts are significantly constrained by systematically fewer household surveys in poorer and more crisis-affected countries. How can this situation be improved? First, experience-based indicators need to be more rigorously evaluated for cross-cultural comparability, and alternatives need to be considered. Second, international agencies and national governments should pool resources to implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose surveys – focusing on poor and crisis-affected countries – to jointly monitor food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition, as well as their root causes.