Publications and Datasets

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only. JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women’s tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors. OBJECTIVE We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors’ behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative’s contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors. METHODS We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives’ targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors’ agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers’ behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative’s theory of change and underlying assumptions. SIGNIFICANCE ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives’ target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors’ agency and behaviors.

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP) visits provide a frequent contact point with caregivers which can be an opportunity for the promotion of early child development (ECD). Using a combination of quantitative analyses of longitudinal and cross-sectional data and a review of the literature, we investigated whether the GMP platform could improve ECD by identifying children at risk of poor development and delivering responsive parenting education to caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional and lagged regression analyses and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) indicated that growth indices were not accurate predictors of concurrent and later child development. Rather, validated tools, such as the Ages and Stages Questionnaire or the Survey of Well-being of Young Children, could be utilized during GMP visits to screen individual children for suboptimal development. Through a review of published literature on ECD interventions, we identified 10 light-touch ECD interventions which could feasibly be implemented during GMP visits, but only half have been evaluated for their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that, while growth indices cannot accurately identify children at risk of suboptimal development, the GMP platform could offer an opportunity to screen children for suboptimal development and to deliver ECD interventions. Further evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of light-touch parenting programs, however, is required.

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

Advancing forest-based carbon trading in Nepal: Policy challenges and agroforestry opportunities

Nepal remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters. Although several national policy documents have emphasized the urgency of mitigation and adaptation, climate action remains fragmented and significantly underfunded. Nepal’s unique geography—spanning the Himalayas, mid-hills, and Tarai plains—together with recent decentralization reforms offers a favorable context for implementing localized, context-specific solutions to climate threats. However, the lack of consistent policy frameworks, weak institutional mechanisms, limited investment, and fragmented governance across all levels of government continue to impede progress. In this policy note, we use carbon trading in the forestry sector as a case study to illustrate broader policy challenges and opportunities in Nepal and other Global South countries. Trading is a market-based mechanism that incentivizes the offset of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through credits for CO2 sequestration.. Nepal has adopted this approach in line with international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. As one of the major strategies, the country has sought to capitalize on its forest resources to generate carbon credits and attract international climate finance.

Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives

Improving food systems requires significant expenditures and investments from both the public and private sector. In the case of public outlays, the decisions are taken by the government or by multilateral international organizations (with governments as their owners), while, obviously, private expenditures and investments depend on choices by the private sector. These private financial flows are guided by the decisions of consumers, producers, banking system institutions, and operators in capital markets. Public policy cannot dictate directly how those private actors act (for instance, governments cannot mandate that consumers must eat healthy diets), but it can influence those decisions through adequate macroeconomic, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. This discussion paper will focus briefly on some ideas about how those frameworks can reorient and expand current levels of funding towards food systems transformation, focusing particularly on banking systems and capital markets. First, it briefly analyzes the levels of financial flows in the banking system and capital markets. Then it looks at the role of macroeconomic policy in influencing the operations of food systems, followed by suggestions about other regulatory and incentive frameworks to create healthy, equitable, sustainable and climate-resilient food systems.

Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis

Farmers in India continue to be deprived of adequate and timely institutional credit. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in 1998, sought to address this issue by providing credit support under a single window with simplified procedure. Using a panel data of 2,586 farming households from five states in Eastern India, namely, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal in 2018 and 2023, we examine the determinants of access to KCC and its credit limit. We also analyze the impact of KCC on farmers’ input usage, dependence on moneylenders and farm income using propensity score weighted fixed effects model which controls for selection bias and unobservable time-invariant heterogeneities. We find that farmers’ participation in agricultural training, demonstrations and development programs encourage farmers to adopt KCC. Furthermore, KCC access increases farmers’ input usage and reduces their dependence on money lenders. This evidence comes from an economically challenged region whose economy significantly depends on agriculture. The findings of the study raise concerns over the limited penetration of the scheme among smaller-scale farmers and provide key insights into the underlying issues hindering the efficacious functioning of the scheme.

Remittance trends in Myanmar: January – June 2024

Remittances have emerged as an important source of income for households in post-coup Myanmar. This paper utilizes data from the seventh and fourth rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) to analyze remittance trends between January and June 2024 with trends from July to December 2022. These two rounds are compared because they both contain detailed questions on remittances. Between January and June 2024, 16 percent of households received remittances from at least one member who was residing overseas or in a different state or region. This comprises nine percent of households receiving remittances from migrants outside of Myanmar and eight percent of households receiving remittances from migrants within Myanmar. Around 12 percent of households received remittances from a single migrant and four percent of households received remittances from two or more members. In any three-month period between January-June 2024, more households in Kayin, Mon, and Tanintharyi received remittances than households in other states/regions. Among households that received remittances from within Myanmar, they received an average of MMK 173,768 per month (about 49 USD). Households that received remittances from outside of Myanmar received around MMK 499,386 per month (about 141 USD), significantly higher than the amount from migrants within Myanmar. Reliance on remittances among recipients has grown since 2021. Remittances made up 33 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2022, compared to 45 percent of household income between January and June 2024. Finally, budget share of international remittances increased from 15 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2024 to 26 percent between April and June 2024, underscoring the growing importance of remittances from abroad for household welfare in Myanmar.

Monitoring individual migration in Myanmar: December 2021 – June 2024

Drawing on data from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), conducted between December 2021 and June 2024 with over 12,000 respondents per round, this report examines individual migration, migration in which one or a few household members leave the household. Over the two-and-a-half-year period from December 2021 to June 2024, an estimated 9 million household members aged 15 and older—17 percent of the total population and 28 percent of the adult population—migrated from their households. During this time, the states of Kachin, Kayin, and Mon reported the highest migration rates, with over 35 percent of the adult population migrating. In January through June 2024, nearly nine percent of households reported sending migrants. However, the proportion of individuals migrating within Myanmar for work declined, while more individuals migrated for reasons such as marriage, education, or safety. Additionally, it is estimated that six percent of households had members migrate abroad to evade conscription laws. Urban households and those in Yangon were particularly likely to send members abroad to avoid conscription.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative’s approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

Developing a regional cooperation strategy for scaling up climate-smart agriculture in South Asia

Climate change being a global environmental problem, a cooperative approach involving all the sovereign countries is required to achieve an optimal solution. Caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons, climate change has global effects that are independent of the geographical sources of these emissions. However, the adverse impacts of global warming and extreme weather events associated with climate change are not uniformly distributed, as vulnerable populations in less-developed countries bear the brunt of the damage. Some of these climate-vulnerable nations contribute less than 1 per cent of global GHG emissions, including Bhutan (0.0057%), Sri Lanka (0.072%), Nepal (0.105%), and Bangladesh (0.522%) in South Asia.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Integrated land systems for sustainable food production and biodiversity conservation in the semi-arid to moist tropics: Stakeholder perspectives from Andhra Pradesh, India

Land systems must urgently be transformed for social and environmental sustainability, which necessitates a better integration of food system and biodiversity governance. This is particularly pronounced in the south-Indian state Andhra Pradesh, where one of the largest agroecological transitions globally, namely Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), is currently underway, but involvement of conservation scientists and practitioners has been minimal and policy spheres are disjunct. Here, we report the results of a multi-stakeholder exercise to ascertain the multi-scalar and multi-institutional transformations needed for Andhra Pradesh ‘s landscapes to deliver both food and biodiversity targets. To achieve a vision of an equitable and sustainable food system and of multifunctional and nature-positive land systems, we advocate for an end to harmful subsidies, improvements in infrastructures and social organisations, dietary shifts, and creation of both supporting financial structures and sustainable and transparent value chains. We stress that approaches should be participatory and link across policy domains and scales, bridging bottom-up and top-down perspectives, and with spatial planning critical to balancing land system objectives. Specifically, we stress that the ZBNF transition needs to be better aligned with state-level conservation strategies to maximise biodiversity benefits. Top priority knowledge needs include quantifying the multidimensional performance and scaling-potential of agroecological systems, the effectiveness of different conservation interventions, and how different land system objectives trade off against each other. Our work highlights a lack of data and capacity sharing, which can be addressed through intersectoral partnerships and collaborative programmes to create effective, research-based policies and land management strategies.

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-processed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber. Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010. Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient deficiencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high-income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals. Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutritional indicators. Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends. A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

South Africa’s primary agriculture sector witnessed profound productivity growth in recent decades, yet structural transformation is stalling due to a combination of sluggish nonfarm growth and persistent structural challenges that inhibit wider societal progress. Looking ahead, the agrifood system is well placed to increase the supply of goods at competitive prices but requires consistency in policymaking and an investment-friendly environment, as well as stronger domestic demand for products. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of the country’s agrifood system, future foresight research should focus on better understanding cross-sector productivity gains and how the entire system can be reoriented to support greater agricultural transformation.

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data). These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns. ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact. The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined. Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

Food assistance has evolved to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, reflecting the broader scope of interventions beyond traditional food aid. Localized and cash-based assistance is growing in importance, but externally sourced, in-kind assistance remains crucial in areas where markets and food systems are disrupted and thus unable to ensure timely and stable access to nutritious food. Future food assistance needs will increasingly reflect changing geographies, growing urban food insecurity, and heightened market volatility, requiring adaptive, anticipatory, and multilayered strategies. Significant gaps remain in understanding how to sustainably transition from international food assistance to locally driven, resilient food systems that address long-term nutritional adequacy and adapt to compounding crises. Foresight research can help highlight the intersection of climate change, conflict, and economic volatility as key drivers of future food assistance needs, and the nature of innovations to boost efficiency and impact. Expanded use of digital tools and integration of food assistance into social protection systems offer promising pathways toward enhanced efficiency and impact. Further research is needed to ensure that innovations reach the most vulnerable in low-resource settings and that integrated systems are sustainable.

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

Global food demand is projected to increase as incomes rise, and diets will continue shifting toward more nutrient-dense foods, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IMPACT model projections indicate that global production for all agricultural commodities will increase by over 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, driven by innovation and productivity growth, but resource constraints and climate change pose challenges. As with demand, production is projected to grow fastest in LMICs. In the coming decades, food demand is projected to outpace production in most LMIC regions. As a result, most of these regions, with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), are expected to increase their reliance on imports. Increases in production and trade are expected to enhance food availability, but most LMIC regions are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2.1 on ending hunger by 2030. Strengthening model integration and incorporating socioeconomic disaggregation will enhance IMPACT’s ability to provide more comprehensive insights for decision-making to address these challenges.

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024. El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region. El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance. Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds. As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

Rapid growth in the livestock and fisheries subsectors, driven by increasing demand, has advanced the frontiers of agricultural growth in India. Irrigation plays the dual role of enhancing both productivity and resilience in agriculture, but increasing reliance on groundwater for irrigation and the consequent decline in groundwater levels impede the sustainable transformation of India’s agrifood production systems. Although climate change is a significant challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, implementation of climate-smart interventions can significantly improve agricultural productivity and resilience. Changing dietary patterns reinforce the need to reshape agricultural policies to promote diversification of agriculture in favor of nutrient-dense foods, including animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables. Diversification may contribute to the enhanced sustainability of natural resources, mitigate risk, and augment farm income, thereby addressing nutrition insecurity and reducing farm poverty. Enhancing self-sufficiency in specific commodities, such as edible oils and pulses, requires technological advancements and safeguards against low-cost imports.

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods. Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities. The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level. Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change. Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people. Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase. Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia. Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets. Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?

Population growth, changing diets, and a rapidly growing feed sector are contributing to a sharp increase in global maize demand, which is expected to double by 2050 relative to 2010. Average global maize yield is projected to decrease by 11 percent under a global warming scenario of 2°C (2060–2084) relative to the 1986–2005 period (in the absence of technological change, adaptation, or market adjustments). The feed demand for maize is expected to grow faster in the coming few decades, largely driven by rapid economic growth and diet shifts in highly populated regions in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Meeting the growing demand for maize will require dramatic increases in production, marketing, use, and resilience of maize-based farming systems. While the supply of maize over the coming decades will be constrained by climate change and limited availability of land and water, technological and policy innovations will bring new opportunities. The combined challenges of increasing food demand, persistent poverty and malnutrition, natural resource depletion, and climate change will require the world to double the productivity and boost the sustainability and resilience of maize-based farming systems within planetary boundaries.

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

Many food systems-related databases, tools, and dashboards are available, but to ensure these tools are helpful for decision-makers, they must be harmonized and their sophistication increased to capture trade-offs and synergies. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative holds great potential to address this need, but its success will depend on several factors, such as filling national and subnational data gaps, ensuring countries formalize their commitments, translating global ambitions into national contexts, and integrating sectoral policies and programs. A new generation of food systems indicators must capture multifaceted interactions, trade-offs, and synergies by integrating observations, models, and complex system analyses with clear metadata for appropriate use.

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

The global energy transition currently in process involves increases in variable renewable energy generation and ongoing electrification of transport and industrial processes, leading to the possibility of absolute declines in the use of coal and petroleum before 2030. This transition creates both opportunities and risks for agrifood systems. Trade will be an important impact channel for net exporters and net importers of fossil fuels, with impacts spilling into the agrifood sector. Improvements in energy technology, particularly solar generation, have broad applications with potentially large implications for agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food systems?

Global poverty declined rapidly over the past 25 years, from around 30 percent to 8.5 percent today, but a series of global crises caused the pace of poverty reduction to slow down from 2020 onward. Some regions have done well; for instance, the East Asia and Pacific region has now effectively eliminated extreme poverty, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), while extreme poverty in South Asia is expected to be eradicated by 2030. But with almost no further reduction in the extreme poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa until 2030, the number of poor people in this region will expand by 10 percent to reach 500 million. This means that by 2030, around 80 percent of the global population of poor people will live in sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty and food systems are closely intertwined. Both theory and evidence support the notion that investments in the food system that reduce food prices or create jobs in the food system will be highly effective at reducing poverty, and likely more so than investments outside of the food system, especially during the earlier stages of a country’s development. With respect to investments within the food system, since the majority of the world’s extreme poor are engaged in farming, investments in the on-farm part of the food system are likewise more effective at reducing extreme poverty than off-farm investments, such as in processing, distribution, and food services. However, rural-urban migration and structural shifts in employment into off-farm jobs, combined with growing demand for processed foods from retail or food service outlets, will gradually increase the poverty-reducing impacts of off-farm investments. Foresight analysis can help policymakers anticipate employment and dietary shifts and allocate their food system investments in a way that would maximize their impact on extreme poverty. Policies and investments designed to facilitate food systems transformation may be associated with trade-offs across development outcomes. For instance, while investments in staple crop productivity may be most effective at reducing poverty and calorie availability, they may not contribute to improving dietary quality or health outcomes, which are also important SDGs. Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of environmentally conscious food production processes, also central to several of the SDGs, may raise the cost of food, with negative consequences for poverty. At the same time, inaction now to facilitate a transition toward more sustainable food systems will contribute to conflicts, disasters, physical displacement, and adverse health and economic outcomes in the future, the burden of which will fall disproportionately on future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can help policymakers understand these trade-offs as they consider alternative investment choices and measures to protect vulnerable populations from any adverse impacts.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050. Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond. Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth. Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food systems?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation. Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment. Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment. Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition. While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion. Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate. To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency. Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

What do we know about the future of wheat?

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South. Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant. Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein. Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits. Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

Addressing the dual challenge of limited resources and a large population, China must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The shift toward a more nutritionally balanced diet by 2050 will not only improve public health but also significantly alter the demand patterns for various food commodities, increasing the need for strategic adjustments in agricultural production. Technological innovation in agriculture presents a critical solution to overcoming constraints of land and water, highlighting the importance of continued investment in research and development for sustainable growth. Future agricultural transformations will likely involve a move away from traditional small-scale farming toward more efficient and cooperative agricultural models, driven by rural demographic changes and the growth of socialized service organizations.

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

Urbanization and income growth lead to more diverse diets and increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) in lower-income countries, while in some higher-income countries, consumer preferences may slowly be shifting away from ASF. A significant shift in diets is projected for lower-income countries, with the demand for ASF expected to increase by 20 percent in absolute kcal/person/day terms under conditions of baseline socioeconomic trends to 2050. Projected shifts in ASF consumption will disrupt local-to-global food production and distribution, but most attention has focused on its implications for nutrition and health, climate, and the environment, with less attention to socioeconomic and livelihood impacts. Strategies proposed for addressing the complex and multidimensional future impacts of changes in ASF demand, production, and distribution need further exploration.

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change. Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth. Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used. Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

The total amount of cropland across the globe is likely to expand over the next three decades due to rising demand for food along with feed for livestock. Pasture will likely be stable or contract as livestock production continues to shift away from grazing and toward intensive use of feed and transported fodder. Climate change will increase the overall challenge and drive additional cropland expansion by generally reducing potential yields, although some crops and locations will benefit (typically higher latitudes and, to a lesser extent, higher elevations). Natural land will be displaced by cropland in some areas. In particular, forests in the tropics are at greater risk of conversion than in other regions. Beyond cropland incursion, the types, mixes, and footprints of natural vegetation may be affected by climate change.

What do we know about the future of food trade?

Trade in agriculture and food products increased dramatically over the past 20 years, driven by population and income growth that resulted in consumption exceeding production in many countries. Productivity growth grew as well, allowing countries with surplus production to meet global import demand. Reforms in the global trading system have reduced import barriers, also encouraging trade. As a result, imports as a percentage of total consumption have increased steadily (particularly in low-income countries) and forecasts for the near term (next 10 years) as well as longer-term projections (to 2050) suggest that these trends will continue. Climate change will pose continued challenges as production shifts due to increased temperatures and more variable rainfall. Trade will be necessary to help mitigate the impacts of these changes, so the global trading system must remain open and free of harmful distortions.

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a). Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries. Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge. Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty. More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.

What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems?

Global rice production remained more stable than maize and wheat production in recent years, while rice consumption continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace. Rice production and consumption are projected to increase worldwide, with Asia to continue as the world’s leading source of rice through 2050. Southeast Asia’s rice surplus will increase by 2040 by closing the exploitable yield gap by one-half. The global rice sector will experience an increasing economic surplus with faster productivity growth and will contribute to a decline in the number of undernourished children and people at risk of hunger. Demographic changes and rice trade policy reforms will be key drivers of rice demand and prices in different countries.

KhetScore: Impacts of using digital technologies to unlock credit and insurance for marginal farmers in Odisha

This brief discusses the findings of an impact evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative tool that employs digital technologies to unlock credit and insurance for small and marginal farmers in the state of Odisha, India. In the treatment group, where Dvara E-Registry offered loans and insurance based on the KhetScore methodology, farmers (particularly women) were more likely to obtain insurance and formal credit, without substituting away from informal borrowing. Despite this increase in borrowing, households in the treatment group were much less likely to report difficulty in repaying loans, which suggested favorable loan terms that eased the burden of repayment. There were beneficial effects on agricultural revenues and profits. Women in the treatment group experienced significant improvements in empowerment within the household and in their subjective mental health (specifically, reduced feelings of stress).

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis. Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users. The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity. With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation. A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management. Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets. A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes. The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food. We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as integrated parts of dynamic food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems. Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run. Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation. Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges. Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

Root, tuber, and banana (RT&B) crops are vital for food and nutrition security, providing quick calories, buffering against food crises, and offering opportunities for gender empowerment, particularly in seed systems. Their resilience to adverse weather and their sustainable integration into diverse farming systems enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impact. Production and consumption of fresh and processed RT&B crops are projected to increase by 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, by 2050 in developing countries. Total RT&B production could reach almost 1.4 billion tons, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) emerging as the world’s leading supplier of RT&B crops. RT&Bs are mostly nontraded crops, although opportunities exist in some areas, such as intraregional exports of bananas from some SSA countries and cross-border trade of fresh potatoes between countries in Africa and Asia. Improving foresight research on biotic and abiotic stresses, trade, labor, and the efficiency of processing capacity and reducing postharvest losses in RT&B crops could contribute to stabilizing their supply in the developing world, lowering import reliance, and creating local economic opportunities.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change. Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist. Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise. Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today. Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain. Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain. Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future. To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports. Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow. Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.

Why desk rejections happen and how young researchers can avoid them: Practical lessons from experience

Publishing our work is a critical part of an ECR’s journey. Papers are not always sent out for revision, and it can be discouraging for ECRs to face desk rejections. Here, Dr. Taddese Zerfu shares his insights on how to minimize the chances of facing a desk rejection.