The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has published today a new peer-reviewed volume examining how global and regional agrifood systems may evolve over the next quarter century and what those changes could mean for food security, nutrition, livelihoods, and the environment.
Drawing on advanced modeling tools and a wide range of scenarios, Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050 aims to provide a comprehensive long-term assessment of agrifood systems, with particular attention to the concerns of low- and middle-income countries. The volume explores how major drivers, including changes in population, incomes, technology, climate, and other factors, could shape food production, consumption, markets, resource use, and nutrition outcomes through 2050.
“Agrifood systems are undergoing rapid transformation, creating both new opportunities and significant risks,” said Clemens Breisinger, Director of the CGIAR Program on Policy Innovations, which supported the publication of the report. “This volume provides decision-makers with insights to help guide the investments and policy choices needed to build more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive agrifood systems.”
While many existing outlook studies focus on near-term agricultural production and commodity markets, the new volume takes a broader, longer-term perspective. It examines the interconnected relationships between food, agriculture, nutrition, natural resources, economic development, and climate change, with particular attention to the challenges facing low- and middle-income countries.
Key themes from the analysis include:
- Continued progress in many agrifood system indicators over the coming decades, driven by economic growth and technological advances.
- Persistent challenges related to hunger, malnutrition, environmental sustainability, and climate resilience.
- Significant differences in projected outcomes across regions, commodities, and populations.
- The critical role of policy, innovation, investment, and international cooperation in determining future outcomes.
The authors emphasize that the results are not predictions, but projections based on a set of assumptions about future global trends. The findings underscore that choices made today by governments, businesses, and consumers will shape the trajectory of agrifood systems in the future.
“Agrifood systems don’t operate in silos. A change in demand or production in one place can ripple across regions and affect trade, livelihoods, nutrition, and land and water use elsewhere. That’s why thinking ahead and taking a whole-system approach matters so much,” said Keith Wiebe, lead author of the report and a senior research fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling unit.
The publication is intended to support policymakers, researchers, development practitioners, and private-sector leaders seeking to understand emerging agrifood systems challenges and identify evidence-based strategies for achieving food security, improved nutrition, and sustainable development. The report also points to areas where additional research and scenario analysis are needed.
The pdf version of the book is freely available at https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185223 and will be available for ordering in print via Amazon print-on-demand service.
Recommended citation: Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S., and Willenbockel, Dirk. 2026. Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185223
About IFPRI: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to identify and analyze alternative international and country-led strategies and policies for meeting food and nutrition needs in low- and middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on poor and vulnerable groups in those countries, inclusive development, and sustainability. It is a research center of CGIAR; a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development. http://www.ifpri.org
About CGIAR: CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future, dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. CGIAR science aims to reduce poverty, enhance food and nutrition security, and improve natural resources and ecosystem services. As the world’s largest agricultural innovation network, its research is carried out by 15 CGIAR Centers working around the world in close collaboration with hundreds of partners, including national and regional research institutes, civil society organizations, academia, development organizations, and the private sector. www.cgiar.org
Media inquiries: Evgeniya Anisimova, e.anisimova@cgiar.org