This event will be held on November 19, 2026, from 10:00am to 11:00am (Port Moresby) and November 18, 2026, from 7:00pm to 8:00pm (US/Eastern).

A severe El Niño is predicted for 2026–2027, and early signs are already showing in Papua New Guinea’s main farming areas. In August and September 2026, the National Agricultural Research Institute (NARI) and IFPRI ran a fresh produce value chain survey in 130 communities along the Highlands Highway, covering Morobe, Eastern Highlands, Chimbu, Western Highlands and Jiwaka. At stakeholders’ request, survey supervisors also recorded what they saw in each community under six themes: local markets, livestock, water, trade shop stock and prices, schools, and gardens.

Speakers will present findings from the project note. The main findings are:

• Water shortages and shortened school days were the most widely reported effects.
• Less garden produce is reaching markets.
• Pigs are being culled for cash in some areas.
• Rice prices rose from about K5.5–6 to K7 per kg between June and August–September.
• Conditions differ sharply by altitude and province.

Speakers will also explain the method’s limits. The findings are observational and not representative of any province or the country. They will close by discussing what regular, standardized monitoring could look like.

Fieldwork and Approach: Observing El Niño Conditions in Highlands Highway Communities

• Belinda Monoi, Agribusiness Development Officer, National Agricultural Research Institute (NARI)

Findings by Theme and Province, Caveats, and Data Needs for Monitoring El Niño

• Emily Schmidt, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Q&A

Closing Remarks

• Nelson Simbiken, Director General, National Agricultural Research Institute (NARI)

Moderator

• Kwaw Andam, Country Program Leader / Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI-Papua New Guinea

The Papua New Guinea (PNG) Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP) is managed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and is financially supported by the Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australia High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Center for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR).