Kwaw Andam

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Humid-heat shifts conceptions and increases pregnancy termination risks in Nigeria

Significance Climate change is increasing dangerous heat events globally. We examine the relationship between humid-heat and women’s reproductive health in Nigeria, a rapidly growing and climate-vulnerable country. By spatially integrating demographic data with fine-grained humid-heat data, we find that hotter humid conditions decrease conception probability, but later rebound, and increase pregnancy terminations, resulting in more births overall. We observe greater effects of humid-heat on conception among more disadvantaged or vulnerable women, such as those who live in rural areas or have lower educational attainment, while humid-heat affects pregnancy termination along different dimensions, such as women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Our findings shed light on the complex relationship between temperature-humidity extremes and maternal and reproductive health. Abstract Climate change is increasing the occurrence of dangerous heat events globally with immediate health consequences, particularly in the Global South. In this paper, we spatially integrate Demographic and Healt 9 h surveys with a high-resolution, blended remotely sensed and station-derived dataset of humid-heat events spanning 1983–2016 to examine the effect of humid-heat exposure on fertility in Nigeria, one of the largest and most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. We use discrete-time models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and conception probability and linear probability models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and pregnancy termination (spontaneous and induced). We find that a 1 °C increase in the current maximum wet bulb globe temperature decreases conceptions (0.2 conceptions per 1,000 woman-months, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.4), but exposure to hotter temperatures 1 to 2 mo prior increases conception probability. Exposure to hot-humid temperatures during pregnancy increases probability of pregnancy termination (1.73 terminations per 100 pregnancies, 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.7). The net effect is an increase in births, but the timing may be shifted. Subgroup analyses reveal that effects of humid-heat on conception were larger for women residing in rural areas or in northern districts, or who are Muslim or have lower educational attainment, while the association between humid-heat and pregnancy termination was larger for women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Differences in how humid-heat affects populations may exacerbate existing inequalities. Overall, our analysis contributes to a better understanding of how humid-heat exposure affects fertility and reproductive health among women in the Global South.

Anticipating the 2026/2027 El Niño shock in Papua New Guinea: An assessment of rural household vulnerability from the 2023 Rural Household Survey

– PNG is entering a period of elevated climate and food-security risk. The developing 2026 El Niño raises the likelihood of drought and agricultural stress, with frost an additional concern in the Highlands. Early reports of falling water levels and frost damage underscore the need for preparedness. Impacts may persist well into 2027, since historically El Niño drought conditions are typically followed by flooding from La Niña climate patterns. – Households already rely on coping strategies when food and livelihoods are under pressure. The 2023 PNG RHS Report shows that households respond to shocks through mechanisms such as relying on wantok networks, consuming cheaper foods, and increasing labor supply. These strategies provide important short-term support but may be insufficient during severe or prolonged climate shock and can carry longer-term welfare costs. – Agriculture is a key pathway from climate shocks to welfare. Own production provided 54 percent of food consumed, compared with 38 percent purchased and 7 percent from gifts or transfers. Drought or frost can reduce food availability while increasing market dependence and exposure to higher prices. – Vulnerability is concentrated but extends beyond the Highlands. Highland areas warrant particular attention because drought and frost can coincide, but climate impacts can also affect other regions through agriculture, livestock, water, transport, and markets. – Targeting should combine climate exposure with household vulnerability. Priority areas should reflect current climate conditions, drought and frost risk, agricultural conditions, food insecurity, livelihoods, assets, and market access, followed by rapid verification. Continued monitoring of food markets is essential. Because many households rely on purchased food, changes in food prices, market availability, and access should be monitored closely as El Niño conditions develop. Market monitoring can help identify emerging food-security pressures, inform targeting, and determine when and where assistance or other interventions should be activated. – The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached. – The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached. – The 2023 PNG-RHS provides a foundation for improved climate-risk targeting. Linking household data with rainfall, temperature, drought, NDVI, elevation, agricultural, and market data can improve identification of areas where climate stress is most likely to translate into welfare losses and strengthen anticipatory action.