The Global Landscapes Forum article highlights how the Iran war has triggered a sharp disruption in nitrogen fertilizer supply chains, primarily due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly half of global fertilizer feedstock exports and significant shares of oil and gas. This has already led to fertilizer prices doubling since late February 2026, exposing the global food system’s heavy reliance on synthetic nitrogen inputs that underpin production for nearly half the world’s population.
IFPRI’s Rob Vos is cited saying that South and Southeast Asian countries could be heavily impacted by this fertilizer price shock.
“A lot of these countries are big rice producers, and the way they produce it is very dependent on fertilizer from the Gulf,” he explains.
“That will be an immediate impact, particularly for the next planting season. A lot of farmers in that region had not yet fully purchased all their fertilizer, so the planting season may be affected, but by how much is still hard to say.”
In Africa, “those that are affected by shortages or a lack of fertilizer are typically the medium- to larger-scale producers,” Vos adds.