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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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John M. Ulimwengu

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

John Ulimwengu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit who currently works on food systems mapping in selected African countries. His research interests include food systems dynamics, resilience, and spatial typology for food and nutrition security. Since 2007, John has been involved in strategic research on the transformation of food systems in Africa under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) agenda and has served as the Africa-wide coordinator of the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS). He has codeveloped an interactive spatial typology tool for food and nutrition security that is being used in several countries. He holds a PhD in agricultural economics and a master’s degree in economics from Ohio State University, as well as a master’s degree in development economics from Williams College.

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Publications

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Working Paper

Exposure to multiple shocks and fragility: Distinct but connected dimensions of vulnerability in polycrisis contexts

2026Kebede, Sindu W.; Ulimwengu, John M.
Details

Exposure to multiple shocks and fragility: Distinct but connected dimensions of vulnerability in polycrisis contexts

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping and intersecting risks, yet empirical approaches analyze shock exposure or fragility in isolation. We bring these two dimensions together by examining exposures to multiple shocks and fragility as distinct but connected dimensions relevant to polycrisis contexts at the household level. Using panel data from the HORTINLEA survey (2014–2016) conducted in Kenya in rural and peri-urban areas, we combine a nonparametric multi-shock index (MSI), which captures exposure to economic, climatic, and health shocks, with a fragility exposure index (FEI), which measures experiences of human insecurity, economic exclusion, and social cohesion. We find that the MSI and FEI are weakly correlated, consistent with limited empirical overlap between the two indexes in this sample. Contemporaneous, earlier, and three-wave average shock exposures are not significantly associated with aggregate fragility. In contrast, fragility exposure is robustly associated with food security outcomes. A 10-percentage-point higher FEI is associated with 0.11–0.14 fewer food groups in household dietary diversity and 0.18–0.27 fewer months of adequate household food provisioning. Domain-specific results reveal heterogeneous associations, with exposure to multiple shocks positively associated with greater fragility in the social cohesion domain. The findings highlight the value of distinguishing shock exposure from underlying fragility when assessing household vulnerability in contexts affected by multiple overlapping pressures.

Year published

2026

Authors

Kebede, Sindu W.; Ulimwengu, John M.

Citation

Kebede, Sindu W.; and Ulimwengu, John M. 2026. Exposure to multiple shocks and fragility: Distinct but connected dimensions of vulnerability in polycrisis contexts. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2441. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185487

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Fragility; Vulnerability; Food Security; Rural Areas; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Measuring cognitive capacity in food systems

2026Ulimwengu, John M.
Details

Measuring cognitive capacity in food systems

Food systems transformation depends not only on finance, technology, and formal policy commitments, but also on whether countries can convert evidence into coordinated, implemented, and adaptive action. This paper develops the Food Systems Cognitive Capacity Index (FSCCI) as a policy diagnostic covering six system-level capacities: sensing and information, transparency and feedback, policy framing, collective action and coordination, administrative implementation, and anticipatory resilience. Using country-year data for the 2000–2023 period, the study constructs equal-weighted, principal component analysis (PCA)-weighted, and interdependence-adjusted versions of the FSCCI, alongside a Food Systems Cognitive Failure Index and a Food Systems Transformation Performance Index. The results show that cognitive capacity is measurable and policy-relevant, but its association with transformation performance depends on index construction and model specification. In the preferred one-year-lagged models, the equal-weighted estimate is positive but imprecise, whereas the PCA-weighted and interdependence-adjusted estimates remain positive and statistically significant. Additional controls preserve the positive direction of the association but reduce its precision. Regional and interaction analyses also reveal important contextual variation: the association is stronger in Latin America and the Caribbean, positively moderated by climate readiness, and negatively moderated by food-import dependence. The policy implication is that food systems strategies should be accompanied by investments in the institutional capacities required for implementation. The FSCCI can help governments and development partners diagnose whether the binding constraint lies in weak data systems, limited feedback, fragmented coordination, poor implementation, or inadequate preparedness. It is therefore best used as a capacity-development tool rather than as a country-ranking instrument. Although the findings are associational rather than causal, they support a practical shift from measuring policy presence to assessing whether food systems can perceive problems, learn, coordinate, implement, and adapt.

Year published

2026

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M. 2026. Measuring cognitive capacity in food systems. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2440. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185339

Keywords

Capacity Development; Mental Ability; Learning Capacity; Food Systems; Policies; Large Language Models; Generative Artificial Intelligence; Artificial Intelligence; Measurement; Ethics; Econometrics

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Climate shocks and sustainable household food security in eastern DRC: Causal evidence from IV CMP and pseudo panel analysis

2026
Minyangu, Patrick Muhindo; Fossi, Filippo; Gauny, Josselin; Murhi Mihigo, Isidore; Amato, Serge; Masimane, Jules; Kindja, Jessica Bisimwa; Phillip, Priesty; Eloma, Henri Paul; Nasser, Ibrahim Aboul
…more Ulimwengu, John M.; Riera, Bernard; Michel, Baudouin
Details

Climate shocks and sustainable household food security in eastern DRC: Causal evidence from IV CMP and pseudo panel analysis

Climate-related disturbances are increasingly identified as major determinants of food insecurity in fragile environments, yet empirical evidence remains scarce in conflict-affected areas such as the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using high-frequency FAO DIEM-Monitoring surveys (2022–2026), this paper estimates the causal effect of climate shocks on household food security in the provinces of Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tanganyika. Food security is measured with five validated indicators (FCS, HDDS, HHS, FIES, and rCSI); capturing multiple dimensions of access, consumption, and coping. To address endogeneity in self-reported shock exposure, the authors apply an instrumental-variable Conditional Mixed Process (IV-CMP) model and triangulate results with a pseudo-panel fixed-effects ordered probit model based on FIES severity. Objective climate proxies (rainfall and NDVI) are used to reinforce robustness. The results indicate that climate shocks lead to a significant deterioration in food consumption and raise the likelihood of households experiencing both moderate and severe food insecurity, thereby undermining sustainable food security. Effects are heterogeneous across provinces, reflecting the interaction between climate variability, conflict intensity, and market access constraints. Female-headed households are disproportionately affected in some areas, highlighting gendered vulnerabilities, while income, education, livestock ownership, and land access mitigate vulnerability. These findings highlight the need for integrated and sustainability-oriented policy responses combining climate-smart agriculture, adaptive social protection, early warning systems, and conflict-sensitive programming. Overall, this research advances existing knowledge by delivering rigorous causal insights based on multiple food security indicators and advanced econometric techniques in a highly fragile setting.

Year published

2026

Authors

Minyangu, Patrick Muhindo; Fossi, Filippo; Gauny, Josselin; Murhi Mihigo, Isidore; Amato, Serge; Masimane, Jules; Kindja, Jessica Bisimwa; Phillip, Priesty; Eloma, Henri Paul; Nasser, Ibrahim Aboul; Ulimwengu, John M.; Riera, Bernard; Michel, Baudouin

Citation

Minyangu, Patrick Muhindo; Fossi, Filippo; Gauny, Josselin; Murhi Mihigo, Isidore; Amato, Serge; et al. 2026. Climate shocks and sustainable household food security in eastern DRC: Causal evidence from IV CMP and pseudo panel analysis. Sustainability 18(15): 7821. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157821

Keywords

Congo, Democratic Republic of; Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Middle Africa; Shock; Climate Change; Sustainability; Households; Food Security; Conflicts; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157821 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Events

IFPRI @ Micronutrient Forum: 7th Global Conference
IFPRI at External Event

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September 28 to October 1, 2026

IFPRI @ Micronutrient Forum: 7th Global Conference

Micronutrient deficiencies are one of the world’s most widespread health crises, impacting one in two children and two in three women globally. Inadequate intake of essential vitamins and minerals can have lasting consequences on survival, health, and well-being that echo across generations and limit economic growth. As climate change and other crises disrupt food systems […]

Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) 2026
IFPRI at External Event

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August 31 to September 4, 2026

Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) 2026

The Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) will host its 20th Annual Summit in Kigali, Rwanda from 31 August to 4 September 2026, under the theme “Investing in Africa’s Agri-Food Systems: Nourishing Nations, Growing Jobs, Building Resilience.” The Summit will bring together stakeholders from across the agri-food sector for a programme of plenary sessions, technical discussions, […]

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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December 15, 2025, 9:00 – 4:00 pm

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact

In today’s fast-changing world and evolving food systems, the need for evidence-based food policy has never been more urgent – demanding research that is timely, inclusive, and tailored to context. Reliable data and rigorous analysis are essential, but research must also evolve – and become more timely, more relevant, and more inclusive of diverse voices […]

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News

August 29, 2025 | Press Release

IFPRI at Africa Food Systems Forum 2025

IFPRI’s delegation at AFSF 2025—including Director General and senior researchers—will participate in plenary sessions, high-level panels, side and special events as part of the wider CGIAR delegation at AFSF.

September 06, 2023 | In the News

Unpacking the 2023 Africa agriculture assessment report (CNBC Africa) 

CNBC Africa interviewed John Ulimwengu, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow and the technical editor and lead researcher of the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2023, launched on September 6 at the Africa Food Systems Forum (AGRF). .  The Report titled “Empowering Africa’s Food Systems for the Future” highlights the ways in which Africa is uniquely positioned to redefine its future and […]

August 24, 2018 | In the News

Congo’s maiden agro-industrial park isn’t perfect, but it isn’t a failure (DEVEX)

Devex published an op-ed by IFPRI Senior Research Fellow John Ulimwengu, who detailed Congo’s move towards structural transformation in the agricultural sector with the establishment of their first special economic zone in Bukanga Lonzo.  Created to boost production, encourage private and foreign capital investments, and increase agricultural exports, the agrobusiness park is home to tremendous […]

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