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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Carly Trachtman

Research Fellow

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Bio

Carly Trachtman is a Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit at IFPRI. Carly’s research focuses on topics such as social protection program targeting, agricultural value chains, and technology adoption. She has methodological interests in issues related to welfare measurement and experimental design. Carly received her PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from UC Berkeley. She also holds an MS in Agricultural and Resource Economics from UC Berkeley and a BA in Economics and Mathematics from Lafayette College.

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Publications

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Working Paper

"Smart'' targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

2026Ayalew, Hailemariam; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Keenan, Michael; Trachtman, Carly
Details

"Smart'' targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

Fertilizer subsidy programs in the Global South often juggle competing policy objectives of maximizing aggregate production and providing social protection for the poorest households. Using 2026 survey data from 3105 Kenyan households paired with parcel-level soil tests, this paper evaluates the targeting performance of Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP). Specifically, we analyze the extent to which the current “de facto” targeting—driven by digital registration and e-vouchers—aligns with these possibly conflicting policy goals. We find that the subsidy recipient populations who would maximize productivity do not tend to include the poorest and most vulnerable farmers. Furthermore, the current pool of NFSP beneficiaries shows limited overlap with the ideal beneficiaries for either policy objective. Among those who we would ideally target, we find that factors such as mobile phone ownership and knowledge of fertilizer recommendations may help predict which households actually receive benefits. We conclude that integrating soil testing into subsidy frameworks could significantly reduce these inefficiencies and improve the alignment between program delivery and national agricultural goals.

Year published

2026

Authors

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Keenan, Michael; Trachtman, Carly

Citation

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Keenan, Michael; and Trachtman, Carly. 2026. "Smart'' targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health. IFPRI Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183773

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Subsidies; Productivity; Welfare; Soil Quality; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

2026Trachtman, Carly; Hill, Ruth Vargas
Details

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low- and middle-income countries are under increasing fiscal pressure to rationalize spending on fertilizer subsidy programs. Policy reforms shifting expenditure away from subsidies can have beneficial impacts given the well-documented distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities of fertilizer subsidies. However, such reforms also result in losses and often lower fertilizer use for current beneficiaries. Understanding who is impacted by reform thus requires an assessment of who is currently benefiting, yet there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both on paper and in practice. In this paper, we identify low- and middle- income countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are designed as universal, in many countries there are implicit targeting criteria embedded in the way subsidy programs are implemented and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, the targeting of subsidy programs is generally pro-poor, driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Year published

2026

Authors

Trachtman, Carly; Hill, Ruth Vargas

Citation

Trachtman, Carly; and Hill, Ruth. 2026. Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2419. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183317

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Southern Asia; Eastern Asia; Sub-saharan Africa; Middle East; Northern Africa; Fertilizers; Subsidies; Support Measures; Targeting; Inorganic Fertilizers

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

2026Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo
Details

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth. JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Year published

2026

Authors

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo

Citation

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; and Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo. 2025. How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting. Journal of Development Economics 178(January 2026): 103555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555

Country/Region

Indonesia

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Oceania; Community Development; Policy Innovation; Poverty; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Events

Subsidy Programs for Chemical Fertilizers: What We Know about Targeting Beneficiaries
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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October 14, 2026, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Subsidy Programs for Chemical Fertilizers: What We Know about Targeting Beneficiaries

Policymakers in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs due to their effects on markets and the environment. Despite this pressure, we know little about the recipients of these subsidy programs and how reforms would affect them. Join us for a discussion […]

2026 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
IFPRI at External Event

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July 26 to 28, 2026

2026 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

IFPRI is participating in the 2026 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting on July 26– July 28, 2026. Taking place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Kansas City Marriott Downtown, the 2026 AAEA Annual Meeting is made up of Invited Paper Sessions, Invited Case Study Papers, Organized Symposia, Selected Presentations (Lightning Sessions, Paper […]

2025 Gender Conference: Accelerating Equality in Food, Land, and Water Systems
IFPRI at External Event

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October 7 to 9, 2025

2025 Gender Conference: Accelerating Equality in Food, Land, and Water Systems

Join the CGIAR Accelerator Gender Equality & Inclusion, in collaboration with the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the Western Cape Government, in Cape Town for the 2025 Gender Conference, a pivotal gathering at the intersection of gender equality and sustainable development. This year’s theme, “Accelerating Equality in Food, Land, and Water Systems,” highlights the urgent need […]

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