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Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Hala Abushama

Research Analyst

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Hala Abushama is a Research Analyst with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, and is based at IFPRI-Cairo.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Report

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2026

2026Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Fagir, Isra; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2026

The report finds near-uniform price increases across essentially every commodity group tracked in September 2026: wheat, sorghum, and millet rose sharply (wheat flour stable in the first week, then rising); lentils, rice, and pigeon peas all increased, with lentils and rice rising most; potato prices continued climbing while tomato prices fluctuated; meat, fish, and milk prices rose (eggs stayed relatively stable); and sugar, groundnuts, sesame, fava beans, and cooking oil all increased, with cooking oil and sesame rising most steeply. Agricultural input prices followed the same pattern — wheat and sorghum seed prices rose sharply, and urea and DAP fertilizer prices increased after an August plateau — as did fuel, where parallel-market diesel and petrol prices spiked in the final week of the month. Underlying this, the parallel-market exchange rate rose sharply against the US dollar while the official rate moved only slightly, widening the gap between the two considerably; daily wages for shop sellers, porters, and agricultural workers also rose, most notably for porters. Traders’ perceived availability generally weakened — the share reporting high availability fell for all cereals (sharpest for wheat), all three vegetables (sharpest for tomatoes), cooking oil, and urea — though it improved for lamb, chicken, beef, eggs, and fava beans. Prices varied substantially across states, with West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and the Darfur states repeatedly recording the highest levels for cereals, sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and parallel-market fuel. On the trader-perception side (N=142, 72 percent medium-scale), 23 percent reported supply-chain or logistical challenges (down 4 points from August), 35 percent reported changing demand conditions (up from 28 percent), 21 percent reported financial and liquidity constraints (up from 15 percent), the share reporting rising profit margins fell to 27 percent from 36 percent, tax and fee payments edged up (39 percent federal, 88 percent state/local), and 68 percent intended to continue trading as usual over the next one to three months with 16 percent planning to increase volumes. -Abstract generated by Claude Opus 5

Year published

2026

Authors

Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Fagir, Isra; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Fagir, Isra and Siddig, Khalid. 2026. Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2026. Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/186332

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Building; Commodities; Prices; Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Resource thumbnail

Report

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2026

2026Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2026

This report analyzes trends in the prices, availability, and market conditions of essential commodities across Sudan in August 2026, drawing on trader surveys and market monitoring data. Prices for most food commodities, fuel, and labor continued to rise, while perceptions of commodity availability generally declined for staple foods, oilseeds, and some agricultural inputs, with substantial variation across states. The report also highlights increasing supply chain and financial constraints among merchants, persistent demand challenges, and a cautious business outlook, despite most traders expecting to continue operating under current market conditions. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Year published

2026

Authors

Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; and Siddig, Khalid. 2026. Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2026. Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185792

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Building; Markets; Commodities; Prices; Agricultural Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Resource thumbnail

Report

Characteristics and survival of agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises in the Sudan’s recent conflict: Exploring systemic challenges

2026Gupta, Ishika; de la O Campos, Ana Paula; Schuster, Monica; Bertini, Raffaele; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig
Details

Characteristics and survival of agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises in the Sudan’s recent conflict: Exploring systemic challenges

The outbreak of violent conflict in the Sudan in April 2023 severely disrupted agrifood systems (AFS), markets and livelihoods. Micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are playing a critical role in sustaining food supply, employment and economic activity. This paper examines which firm-level characteristics are associated with higher levels of operational continuity among MSMEs that have continued operations during the ongoing conflict. The analysis uses nationally representative data from a survey of MSMEs in 2024 by IFPRI and the UNDP, conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviews across 13 states of the Sudan. It links firm-level outcomes with locality- or district-level conflict exposure data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). The empirical analysis focuses on 785 enterprises that were operating prior to the conflict and continued operations thereafter. Firms’ post-conflict operational status is measured using an ordered categorical variable ranging from no operations to full operational capacity, and an ordered logit model is used to estimate how firm characteristics are associated with operational recovery. Descriptive results indicate substantial disruption among surviving firms: 57 percent of enterprises relocated at least once, 62 percent experienced temporary closure, and only 19 percent were operating at full capacity at the time of the survey. Average monthly sales declined sharply, particularly for non-agricultural AFS enterprises, and permanent employment fell across all enterprise types. Econometric results show that sector affiliation and commodity type are not significant predictors of a firm’s operational level. Instead, operational outcomes are strongly associated with value chain position, firm size, financial inclusion, formality, owner characteristics, and pre-conflict enterprise location. Input dealers display significantly higher odds of operating at higher capacity relative to producers, while firms in support services such as logistics, transport and packaging face significantly lower odds. Small and medium-sized firms, female-owned enterprises, firms with bank accounts, and enterprises that were not financially constrained prior to the conflict are more likely to be sustaining higher operational levels. In contrast, registered firms, those with multiple pre-conflict branches, and those located in high-intensity conflict areas, particularly Khartoum, are significantly less likely to be operating at higher capacity. The findings highlight that enterprise resilience during conflict is shaped more by structural and institutional characteristics than by sector alone. Policy responses should therefore prioritize restoring midstream value chain functions, expanding access to conflict-adapted financial services, and supporting and protecting logistics and transport networks, particularly in relatively safer states that have become hubs for displaced firms. Strengthening these enterprises is essential, not only for firm survival, but also for maintaining AFS functioning and supporting broader economic stabilization in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Year published

2026

Authors

Gupta, Ishika; de la O Campos, Ana Paula; Schuster, Monica; Bertini, Raffaele; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig

Citation

Gupta, Ishika; de la O Campos, Ana Paula; Schuster, Monica; Bertini, Raffaele; Siddig, Khalid; et al. 2026. Characteristics and survival of agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises in the Sudan’s recent conflict: Exploring systemic challenges. Rome, Italy; and Washington, DC: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; and International Food Policy Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.4060/ce1448en

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Building; Agrifood Systems; Agricultural Sector; Agro-industrial Complexes; Small and Medium Enterprises; Microenterprises; Conflicts; Impact Assessment; Markets; Livelihoods; Agricultural Value Chains; Vulnerability; Resilience; Food Supply; Food Security; Financial Inclusion; Logistics; Research Methods; Data Collection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.4060/ce1448en Source record

Record type

Report

Events

Evidence for Action: Advancing Food Systems, Resilience, and Inclusive Growth in Egypt and the MENA Region
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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November 25, 2026, 9:00 – 2:00 pm

Evidence for Action: Advancing Food Systems, Resilience, and Inclusive Growth in Egypt and the MENA Region

This event is by invitation only. For questions or inquiries about attending, please contact the IFPRI Egypt office at (IFPRI-Egypt@cgiar.org). Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), food systems and livelihoods face mounting pressures from economic uncertainty, climate change, resource constraints, and conflict. In Egypt, ongoing economic reforms, food security challenges, and efforts to […]

8th African Conference of Agricultural Economists (ACAE)
IFPRI at External Event

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September 22 to 25, 2026

8th African Conference of Agricultural Economists (ACAE)

IFPRI is pleased to support the upcoming 8th African Conference of Agricultural Economists (8th ACAE), scheduled for 22–25 September 2026 at the Mövenpick Hotel in Nairobi, Kenya. ACAE is a premier continental gathering focused on advancing agricultural economics through innovation, digital transformation, and strengthened trade systems. Anchored on the theme “Smart Agriculture: Innovation, Digital Transformation, […]

Three Years of Conflict: What the Evidence Tells Us and What Recovery Requires
Series/Special Event

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April 14 to 15, 2026

Three Years of Conflict: What the Evidence Tells Us and What Recovery Requires

April 2026 marks three years since the outbreak of the conflict in Sudan, which has severely disrupted economic activity, food systems, and social services. More than half of the country’s population is in need of assistance, and communities, markets, and institutions are under unprecedented pressure.

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News

February 18, 2026 | In the News

Sudan: how warring factions gained influence in the country’s food system – and what it means for the current conflict (The Conversation)

The importance of understanding the political economy incentives that drive large-scale conflict.

February 10, 2026 | In the News

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict zones? (VoxDev)

Digital cash transfers can be delivered even in active conflict settings like Sudan and can significantly protect vulnerable households from worsening food insecurity, though their impacts vary by context and household characteristics.