Hiroyuki Takeshima

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

The significant economic implications of the value of farmland in developing countries is increasingly recognized, particularly in those countries where land scarcity is a growing problem. However, knowledge gaps remain about how farmland values can be affected by factors such as conflict and social instability. A knowledge gap also remains regarding how spatial transmission and feedback effects of land values among geographically proximate parcels may affect the relationship between conflict and farmland values. This impact has generally been overlooked in the literature, despite the well-established importance of clustering in agricultural economies. This paper addresses these gaps by utilizing unique, nationally representative panel data on farm households and spatial data on conflict intensity in Myanmar, with a focus on the period of significant conflict intensification following the 2021 political crisis, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when the country’s conflict level largely shifted to a high-intensity state. We apply spatial econometric models and their extensions to a panel data framework, as well as models that allow for endogenous spatial weights, which enable conflicts to not only affect farmland values but also shape how changes in farmland values transmit across locations. Our results indicate that more local conflict during the prior 12 months, measured by the number of months with at least one fatal violent event within the township of respondents, significantly reduced the farmland values of the largest rice plot of these respondents. Specifically, in the monsoon and non-monsoon harvesting seasons of 2022 and 2023, an additional one month of fatal violence was associated with approximately 3 percent and 5 percent decline in land values, respectively, implying a potentially sizable decline for townships that experience more persistent conflicts over several months. Moreover, the effects of violent events are magnified by spatial spillover effects on land values across village tracts. These adverse effects are robust and consistent across a range of methodologies and hold across diverse agroecological conditions.

Climate shocks, conflict, and agricultural change

Combine harvester service providers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a January–February 2026 phone survey of 325 combine harvester service provider (CHSPs), offering insights into the 2025 monsoon season. Key Findings Acres harvested declined by 11 percent (7 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with 61 percent of CHSPs reporting lower demand, associated with poor rice price incentives in the Delta and movement restrictions in the Dry Zone. Nominal service charges fell by a median of 6 percent, concentrated in the Delta where fuel costs declined, while Dry Zone charges remained flat reflecting limited fuel savings and a restricted operating environment. Most CHSPs (91 percent) extended credit to farmers without interest, and 74 percent provided more financial assistance than the previous year, highlighting their role as an important source of informal credit. Cash flow problems affected 26 percent of CHSPs, driven by declining revenues and rising costs that may be understated in real terms given Myanmar’s persistently high inflation, with many coping by borrowing, selling assets, or drawing on other income. Emerging fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict pose a significant risk to the 2026 monsoon season, potentially limiting CHSP operations at a time when farmers may also face fertilizer shortages, threatening agricultural production. Recommended Actions De-risk credit for mechanization services by expanding farmers’ access to affordable formal credit or introducing partial guarantee schemes. Improve mobility and security for CHSP operations through greater transparency and reductions of checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads. Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity.