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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

Ahmed Akhter

researcher spotlight

Akhter Ahmed

Akhter Ahmed is a Senior Research Fellow in the IFPRI’s Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit and Country Representative for IFPRI Bangladesh. He has worked on strategies for agricultural and rural development, social protection, and women’s empowerment to reduce poverty, food insecurity, and undernutrition in developing countries including Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Malawi, the Philippines, and Turkey.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Paul Dorosh

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Paul A. Dorosh is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He was previously the Division Director of IFPRI’s Development Strategy and Governance Unit from April 2011 until October 2024. Before that, his previous positions include IFPRI Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader of the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program in Addis Ababa (2008-2010), Senior Economist at the World Bank (2003-2008), senior research fellow with IFPRI in Dhaka, Bangladesh (1997-2001) and Associate Professor at Cornell University (1994-97). He holds a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from the Food Research Institute, Stanford University and a B.A. in Applied Mathematics from Harvard University, and has published research on agricultural markets, food policy, international trade, economy-wide modeling and the rural-urban transformation.

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 10. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174236

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Domestic Production; Shock; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James
Details

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Papua New Guinea Project Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173653

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Domestic Production; Machine Learning; Shock; Vulnerability; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Risk Assessment; Climate; Shock; Economic Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Agriculture; Crop Yield

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Events

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience
Series/Special Event

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April 14 to 15, 2025

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience

The Sudan conflict, now entering its third year, continues to devastate the country’s socioeconomic fabric. As of January 2025, more than 8.8 million people were internally displaced, and over 3.3 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries. Conservative reports estimate over 32,000 fatalities occurred between the start of the war on April 15, 2023, and […]

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications
Series/Special Event

 | 

March 5, 2024, 12:00 – 9:00 pm

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications

Hybrid Event: March 5, 2024 at 8:00am-6:00pm EAT / 12:00am – 10:00am EST. IFPRI and UNDP have partnered for this event on wide-ranging and in-depth analysis to better understand the socioeconomic impact of the war in Sudan, and to inform policy and programmatic recommendations.

Training Workshop: Food Policy Analysis Using Multi-Market Partial Equilibrium Modeling
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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May 2 to 4, 2023

Training Workshop: Food Policy Analysis Using Multi-Market Partial Equilibrium Modeling

Event: May 2, 2023 – 9:00 AM to May 4, 2023 – 5:00 PM EDT. IFPRI-Sudan is organizing a capacity building workshop on food policy analysis using multi-market partial equilibrium modeling. This three-day training event will be held at the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) in Khartoum, Sudan and will be led by IFPRI’s Paul Dorosh and Khalid Siddig.

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News

October 07, 2024 | Press Release

Steven Were Omamo joins IFPRI as the new Director of the Development Strategies and Governance Unit

IFPRI is pleased to announce that Steven Were Omamo joins IFPRI as the new Director of the DSG Unit.

April 13, 2022 | In the News

Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up wheat prices: this could fuel instability in Sudan (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by senior research fellows Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde, Joseph Glauber, Paul Dorosh, and research fellow Oliver Kiptoo Kurui. In the op-ed, the authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major food exporting regions. The war threatens to drive rising […]

June 25, 2019 | In the News

The Rohingya in Bangladesh are surviving – but their long-term prospects are grim (The Telegraph)

The UK’s Telegraph published an opinion piece by Director of Development Strategy and Governance (DSGD) Paul Dorosh and Nonesident Fellow in the Poverty, Health, and Nutrition Division (PHND) John Hoddinott on the status of Rohingya refugees almost two years after 671,000 fled violence and persecution in Myanmar. Dorosh and Hoddinott described the success of Bangladeshi […]

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