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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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David Spielman

David Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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experts

Francisco Ceballos

Research Fellow

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Bio

Francisco Ceballos is a Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. As a development economist specialized in agricultural risk management, resilience, and nutrition, his professional interests include the design, development, and evaluation of innovative agricultural risk management projects, strategies for improving sustainable nutrition in resource-poor environments, and the use of digital technologies for development. He co-leads the research program on picture-based crop insurance, which relies on smartphone pictures of crop fields taken by farmers to assess crop damage and provide complementary value-added services. He has over 20 years of research experience and has worked on projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. His work has been published in leading international journals and specialized books. Dr. Ceballos holds a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Göttingen in Germany.

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Publications

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Journal Article

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

2026Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2026. COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery. World Development 197(January 2026): 107200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Americas; Latin America and the Caribbean; Covid-19; Livelihoods; Food Security; Dietary Diversity; Migration; Expenditure; Shock; Rural Areas

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2026Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare. JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32

Year published

2026

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2026. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. Agricultural Economics 57(1): e70071. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071

Country/Region

Costa Rica; El Salvador; Guatemala; Honduras; Nicaragua; Panama; Dominican Republic

Keywords

Americas; Central America; Fertilizers; Food Prices; Shock; Volatility; Prices; Econometrics

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras

2025Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras

The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive performance fully out of sample. We find that households classified as being of high-propensity to migrate by the e-MPI were significantly more likely to migrate abroad within 24 months (10.7%) than medium- and low-propensity groups (8.8% and 5.3%). For domestic migration, the i-MPI shows an even stronger gradient (19.6% versus 8.5% and 3.5%, respectively). Regression models confirm that both indices outperform alternative predictors—including income, climate shocks, crime, and migration intent—and maintain predictive power across rural and urban areas. Placebo tests indicate that the e-MPI and i-MPI capture distinct dimensions of migration behavior, validating their use for targeting and monitoring migration-related interventions. Overall, the MPIs emerge as simple yet statistically robust tools that reliably predict both international and domestic migration, offering a practical and scalable solution to help governments and development agencies anticipate migration trends and allocate resources strategically.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras. IFPRI Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178954

Country/Region

Honduras

Keywords

Central America; Migration; Indicators; Forecasting; Population Dynamics

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Events

Mobility in a Fragile World: Evidence to Inform Policy
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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September 18, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Mobility in a Fragile World: Evidence to Inform Policy

Migration today reflects a complex interplay of demographic pressures, conflict, poverty, climate change, and economic shocks. Worldwide, one in every seven people is a migrant—that is, someone who changes his or her country of usual residence, irrespective of the reason for migration—or a refugee forced to leave his or her home, often without warning, for […]

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)
IFPRI at External Event

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July 28 to August 2, 2018

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)

IFPRI is participating extensively in the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) 30th Conference of Agricultural Economists. The (IAAE) is a worldwide association of agricultural economists and others concerned with agricultural economic problems, including problems related to the use of renewable resources and the environment. Its broad goal is to make a difference through the following: IFPRI Participants: Pre-Conference Workshops  […]

Food Industries for People and Planet
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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June 26, 2018, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Food Industries for People and Planet

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) new research program on “Food industries for people and planet” (FIPP) will expand traditional ways of thinking about the global food system and will provide evidence-based policy assessments aimed at making agri-food industries and food systems more inclusive in terms of employment and income opportunities, more efficient in […]

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News

July 16, 2019 | In the News

Making crop insurance work for Indian farmers

Live Mint published an overview article on crop insurance. The article highlighted an IFPRI study that demonstrates how to capitalize on the availability of low-cost internet and the rising use of smartphones. The novel picture-based insurance (PBI) product welds technology with weather index-based insurance (WBI).

July 24, 2018 | In the News

Photo-based crop insurance could debut in Kenya in 2019 (SciDev)

The Science Development Network reported on developments in crop insurance.

Research

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Awards

  • 2017 Ernst Meyer Prize of The Geneva Association for his doctoral thesis on “Demand and Design Considerations for Smallholder Farmers’ Weather Index Insurance Products.”