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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

David Spielman

David Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

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Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

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Publications

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Opinion Piece

The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later

2026Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; Dankevych, Vitalii
Details

The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later

The immediate impacts of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine’s agriculture sector were abrupt and widespread. Though Ukrainian producers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in wartime, evidence of long-term reductions in Ukraine’s grain exports has emerged. Russia’s grain exports surged early in the war, but today, weather and labor shortages are threatening Russia’s agricultural output—and its ability to utilize its food exports for global influence. Russia’s fertilizer exports confer additional economic and political advantage for Moscow, with fertilizer exports variably affected since 2022. How are the dynamics of war affecting global agriculture markets and global food security? How can Ukraine’s allies best support its agricultural recovery and long-term growth?

Year published

2026

Authors

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; Dankevych, Vitalii

Citation

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; and Dankevych, Vitalii. 2026. The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies

Keywords

Food Security; War; Impact; Agricultural Sector

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Opinion Piece

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Report

Market concentration in agricultural industries

2026Goodwin, Barry K.; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Market concentration in agricultural industries

Mergers and acquisitions in agricultural input industries have led to high levels of concentration such that a small number of firms account for most sales. We examine the concentration in seed, fertilizer, and livestock markets. Policymakers have raised concerns that such concentration may worsen consumers’ and farmers’ welfare. Agricultural market concentration might increase market power, but it might also result from economies of scale, in which case aggregate welfare may improve. The ongoing debate over tariffs has complicated the situation since higher tariffs, as well as antidumping and countervailing duties, might increase input costs for farmers.

Year published

2026

Authors

Goodwin, Barry K.; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Goodwin, Barry K.; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. Market concentration in agricultural industries. AEI Report. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/market-concentration-in-agricultural-industries/

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Americas; Markets; Imperfect Competition; Market Structure; Monopolies; Agro-industrial Sector; Inputs; Farm Inputs; Market Concentration

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

2025Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Year published

2025

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2025. Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2379. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178193

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Trade; Tariffs; Food Security; Food Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts
Issue Post
 | 
March 06, 2026

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts

By Joseph Glauber

Problems in the Strait of Hormuz reverberate globally.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads
Issue Post
 | 
September 25, 2025

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

By Valeria Piñeiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Joseph Glauber, and Fousseini Traoré

A potential export shift from West to East.

New U.S. tariff policies: What’s at stake for sub-Saharan Africa?
Issue Post
 | 
May 06, 2025

New U.S. tariff policies: What’s at stake for sub-Saharan Africa?

By Valeria Piñeiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Fousseini Traoré, and Joseph Glauber

Risks and possible benefits of a chaotic global trade environment.

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Events

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 14, 2026, 9:00 – 10:30 am

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems

Also streaming on Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. While the global food system has largely adjusted to the disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers following the invasion of Ukraine, the new conflict in […]

Navigating Risk: Challenges in Agricultural Commodity Shipping and Insurance Markets
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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February 18, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Navigating Risk: Challenges in Agricultural Commodity Shipping and Insurance Markets

Shipping is at the heart of global agricultural trade, with more than 80 percent of staple crops and oilseeds moving by sea, yet maritime routes have become increasingly uncertain. Attacks on vessels in strategic corridors, drought‑restricted passages, and sharply rising war‑risk insurance premiums have created levels of exposure not seen in years. Bulk agricultural cargoes […]

Navigating the Food Security Nexus: Commodity Prices, Inflation, and Exchange Rates
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 21, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Navigating the Food Security Nexus: Commodity Prices, Inflation, and Exchange Rates

Join us for a seminar exploring the complex interplay between global food commodity prices and domestic food price inflation, and the implications for food security. Drawing on recent analytical work and market monitoring, the session will examine how international price movements transmit through domestic markets, often exacerbated by exchange rate fluctuations and macroeconomic volatility.  Fluctuations […]

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News

March 27, 2026 | In the News

The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices (AP)

AP quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are tightening global fertilizer supplies. He warns farmers may switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or apply less fertilizer, reducing yields.

March 23, 2026 | In the News

What’s really driving your grocery bill up? (CGTN America)

CGTN spoke with IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber about how the Strait of Hormuz crisis could drive up fertilizer and food prices worldwide.

March 23, 2026 | In the News

Could the Strait of Hormuz crisis lead to a global food emergency? (CGTN Europe)

IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber spoke to CGTN Europe in London to discuss the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on food security.

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