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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Francisco Ceballos

Research Fellow

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Bio

Francisco Ceballos is a Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. As a development economist specialized in agricultural risk management, resilience, and nutrition, his professional interests include the design, development, and evaluation of innovative agricultural risk management projects, strategies for improving sustainable nutrition in resource-poor environments, and the use of digital technologies for development. He co-leads the research program on picture-based crop insurance, which relies on smartphone pictures of crop fields taken by farmers to assess crop damage and provide complementary value-added services. He has over 20 years of research experience and has worked on projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. His work has been published in leading international journals and specialized books. Dr. Ceballos holds a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Göttingen in Germany.

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Publications

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Working Paper

Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala

2026Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala

Guatemala experiences high and persistent poverty and chronic malnutrition, especially in rural areas of the Western Highlands, where agricultural productivity is low, market integration is limited, and households remain vulnerable to multiple shocks. This paper evaluates the impacts of a regional value chain project combining interventions aimed at strengthening agricultural production, market access, and nutrition-sensitive practices. Using household survey data collected from beneficiary and control households in 2019 and 2022, we assess project impacts on outcomes related to production and income, food security, and nutrition. The findings suggest relatively modest impacts during the evaluation period. The intervention contributed to some degree of agricultural diversification, particularly through increased production of fruits and vegetables, while reducing moderate or severe food insecurity episodes and improving children’s weight-for-height z-scores. However, we do not find broader improvements in household expenditures, dietary diversity, or longer-term child nutritional outcomes. Additional analyses reveal limited evidence of meaningful differences in impacts across implementing partners, project components and treatment intensity, household groups, and exposure to specific shocks. These findings highlight the challenges of achieving measurable gains through integrated value chain and nutrition interventions in vulnerable environments and point to the importance of accounting for broader contextual factors in project design and evaluation.

Year published

2026

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2026. Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2458. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/186301

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Latin America and the Caribbean; Value Chains; Agriculture; Diversification; Household Expenditure; Food Security; Nutrition; Rural Communities; Vulnerable Groups

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

2026Hill, Ruth Vargas; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; Ceballos, Francisco
Details

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

Agricultural insurance has long been promoted as a tool to help smallholder farmers manage production and market risks, yet affordable, well-functioning coverage has proven difficult to deliver at scale. This paper reviews peer-reviewed evidence on the design, implementation, and impacts of agricultural insurance in low- and middle-income countries, with a focus on innovations that have emerged since early indemnity-based multi-peril crop insurance programs gave way to index-based and hybrid approaches. It synthesizes findings on ex ante and ex post impacts, on design features that shape cost, basis risk, and payment timing, and on distribution channels and inclusion of women and low-income households. The review finds that insurance can meaningfully protect household consumption and assets after shocks and encourage productive investment beforehand, but that these benefits depend heavily on accurate loss assessment, adequate coverage size, and trust built through distribution partners. The paper concludes with operational recommendations for policymakers and practitioners on product design, subsidies, and distribution, and identifies priority evidence gaps, including the optimal design of subsidies and insurance's potential to address non-weather-related risks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Hill, Ruth Vargas; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; Ceballos, Francisco

Citation

Hill, Ruth; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; and Ceballos, Francisco. 2026. Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2447. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185790

Keywords

Africa; Asia; Southern Asia; Insurance; Agricultural Insurance; Smallholders; Farmers; Risk Management; Climate; Risk; Developing Countries; Climate Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

2026Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2026. COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery. World Development 197(January 2026): 107200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Americas; Latin America and the Caribbean; Covid-19; Livelihoods; Food Security; Dietary Diversity; Migration; Expenditure; Shock; Rural Areas

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Events

IFPRI @ XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026)
IFPRI at External Event

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October 25 to 29, 2026

IFPRI @ XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026)

The XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026) will take place from 25–29 October 2026 in Santiago, Chile, bringing together researchers, academics, health professionals, policymakers, and students from across the region to discuss the future of food systems and nutrition. The congress will be held at the Centro Cultural CEINA, a prominent cultural and […]

Mobility in a Fragile World: Evidence to Inform Policy
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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September 18, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Mobility in a Fragile World: Evidence to Inform Policy

Migration today reflects a complex interplay of demographic pressures, conflict, poverty, climate change, and economic shocks. Worldwide, one in every seven people is a migrant—that is, someone who changes his or her country of usual residence, irrespective of the reason for migration—or a refugee forced to leave his or her home, often without warning, for […]

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)
IFPRI at External Event

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July 28 to August 2, 2018

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)

IFPRI is participating extensively in the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) 30th Conference of Agricultural Economists. The (IAAE) is a worldwide association of agricultural economists and others concerned with agricultural economic problems, including problems related to the use of renewable resources and the environment. Its broad goal is to make a difference through the following: IFPRI Participants: Pre-Conference Workshops  […]

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News

July 16, 2019 | In the News

Making crop insurance work for Indian farmers

Live Mint published an overview article on crop insurance. The article highlighted an IFPRI study that demonstrates how to capitalize on the availability of low-cost internet and the rising use of smartphones. The novel picture-based insurance (PBI) product welds technology with weather index-based insurance (WBI).

July 24, 2018 | In the News

Photo-based crop insurance could debut in Kenya in 2019 (SciDev)

The Science Development Network reported on developments in crop insurance.

Research

Projects

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Awards

  • 2017 Ernst Meyer Prize of The Geneva Association for his doctoral thesis on “Demand and Design Considerations for Smallholder Farmers’ Weather Index Insurance Products.”