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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Lilia Bliznashka

Lily Bliznashka is a Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit. Her research focuses on assessing the effectiveness of multi-input nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions and the mechanisms through which they work to improve maternal and child health and nutrition globally. She has worked in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda.

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Manuel Hernandez

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current line of research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility. He received his PhD in Economics from Texas A&M University and also holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the Universidad del Pacifico, Lima.

Languages spoken: English, Spanish

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Publications

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Journal Article

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

2026Yao, Feng; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)—the high return threshold exceeded with low probability—to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al., (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Year published

2026

Authors

Yao, Feng; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Yao, Feng; and Hernandez, Manuel A. When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets. Economics Letters 259(January 2026): 112758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112758

Keywords

Fertilizers; Prices; Price Volatility; Markets; Dynamic Programming; Modelling; Monitoring

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112758 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

2026Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2026. COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery. World Development 197(January 2026): 107200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Americas; Latin America and the Caribbean; Covid-19; Livelihoods; Food Security; Dietary Diversity; Migration; Expenditure; Shock; Rural Areas

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107200 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2026Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare. JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32

Year published

2026

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2026. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. Agricultural Economics 57(1): e70071. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071

Country/Region

Costa Rica; El Salvador; Guatemala; Honduras; Nicaragua; Panama; Dominican Republic

Keywords

Americas; Central America; Fertilizers; Food Prices; Shock; Volatility; Prices; Econometrics

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Events

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias
Series/Special Event

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June 21, 2023, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias

Virtual Event: June 21, 2023 – 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT. We invite you to join us at the virtual launch event for LAC, where speakers will shed light on the significant findings of the 2023 report from a regional perspective.

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 13, 2023, 9:00 – 10:30 am

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses

Hybrid Event: April 11, 2023 – 9:00 AM- 10:30 AM EDT. Join us for the launch of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report, which explores evidence-based policy and governance solutions that can provide better early warning and rapid response and increase resilience of food systems.

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
IFPRI at External Event

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July 31 to August 2, 2022

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

Virtual Event: July 31, 2022 – 10:00 AM to August 2, 2022 – 6:15 PM PDT. IFPRI is participating in the 2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting.

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Awards

  • 2014 Wageningen Social Sciences Publication Award for “Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets,” coauthored with Cornelis Gardebroek.
  • Graduate Teaching Excellence Award, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, 2008.
  • Maurice Fellowship, Excellence in Graduate Studies, Texas A&M University, Summer 2008.
  • Fulbright Scholarship for graduate studies 2004 – 2006, Lima, Peru