Fousseini Traoré

Agricultural trade in Africa: Current trends and challenges

Agricultural trade can play a central role in meeting people’s food needs, both by increasing available supply and by boosting stakeholders’ incomes, given that 60% of the labor force works in this sector (Bonuedi et al., 2020; Wonyra and Gnedeka 2023). However, an analysis of African agricultural trade performance over the past twenty years highlights some key issues to watch. First, African agricultural trade is the lowest in the world, not helped by high costs of trading and non-tariff measures. Second, a trade deficit that has been steadily widening since 2006 as Africa has become heavily dependent on imports of basic agricultural products such as cereals. The continent currently meets more than 40% of its cereal demand on world markets. This deficit in African agricultural trade is fueled by low productivity, linked to declining yields and a lack of sufficient investment in production, storage, processing, and marketing infrastructure, and rapid population growth and urbanization in Africa which has increased demand for imported food. Third, over the past two decades, the structure of African agricultural exports has remained largely undiversified, with unprocessed cash crops continuing to be the dominant export commodity. To better understand the dynamics of agricultural trade in Africa, this brief analyzes its performance, over the 2003-2023 period, by highlighting the most dynamic countries and regional economic communities, the most exported and imported products, and the continent’s revealed comparative advantages.

The economic costs of bribes and road harassment by officials in ECOWAS

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.