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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

Ahmed Akhter

researcher spotlight

Akhter Ahmed

Akhter Ahmed is a Senior Research Fellow in the IFPRI’s Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit and Country Representative for IFPRI Bangladesh. He has worked on strategies for agricultural and rural development, social protection, and women’s empowerment to reduce poverty, food insecurity, and undernutrition in developing countries including Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Malawi, the Philippines, and Turkey.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Jan Duchoslav

Research Fellow

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Jan Duchoslav is a Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Lilongwe, Malawi. He conducts research and outreach activities to support development policies in the areas of food security, social protection, resilience, and rural transformation. Jan has worked in Sierra Leone, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Malawi. He received his PhD in Development Economics from Wageningen University, the Netherlands. Up-to-date information and details about Jan’s research are available at his personal website.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

2025Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Duchoslav, Jan
Details

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Duchoslav, Jan

Citation

Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; and Duchoslav, Jan. 2025. Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102815

Country/Region

Ghana; Uganda; Malawi; Nigeria; Ethiopia

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Maize; Agricultural Productivity; Agrifood Systems; Inorganic Fertilizers; Yields; Profitability; Data; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102815 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

2025Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi. MaSSP Policy Note 53. Lilongwe, Malawi: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174201

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Welfare; Aid Programmes; Economic Situation; Agriculture; Shock; Development Aid

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Malawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and ma-chine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings sug-gest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including production volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Poverty; Nutrition; Crop Yield; Machine Learning; Climate

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Responding to Malawi’s impending food crisis
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 31, 2024

Responding to Malawi’s impending food crisis

By Jan Duchoslav, Mazvita Chiduwa, Simon Denhere, Joachim De Weerdt, Rodwell Mzonde, and George Phiri

Food imports can make up for shortages if quick action is taken.

Act now to address Malawi’s looming food crisis
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 12, 2024

Act now to address Malawi’s looming food crisis

By Jan Duchoslav, Joachim De Weerdt, and Rodwell Mzonde

Harvest shortfalls caused by severe drought conditions.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens food security in Malawi. How can the country respond?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 27, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens food security in Malawi. How can the country respond?

By Joachim De Weerdt and Jan Duchoslav

The poor are particularly vulnerable to rising prices of food, vegetable oils, and fertilizers.

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Events

2021 ReSAKSS Conference
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

November 15 to 17, 2021

2021 ReSAKSS Conference

Virtual Event: Nov 15, 2021 – 07:00 AM to Nov 17, 2021 – 10:30 AM EST. IFPRI is participating in the virtual 2021 ReSAKSS Conference. 

31st International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 17 to 31, 2021

31st International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)

Virtual Event: AUG 17, 2021 – 08:00 AM to AUG 31, 2021 08:00 PM EDT. IFPRI is participating in the 31st Conference of Agriculture Economists organized by the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE). 

Malawi Discussion of IFPRI’s 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19
Series/Special Event

 | 

May 5, 2021, 8:00 – 9:30 am

Malawi Discussion of IFPRI’s 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19

Virtual Event: MAY 05, 2021 – 08:00 AM TO 09:30 AM EDT. Malawi's discussion of IFPRI's 2021 Global Food Policy Report. 

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News

September 12, 2024 | In the News

Tale of two villages: In Malawi, farmers point the way as drought drives hunger (WFP/AllAfrica/Relief Web)

The WFP story shared by All Africa and Relief Web quotes Jan Duchoslav and Joachim De Weerdt (IFPRI Malawi) on the food security crisis in the country.