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El Niño is strengthening: Are food systems ready for overlapping shocks?
El Niño is strengthening rapidly, with forecasts pointing to a potentially exceptionally strong event in 2026-27. By altering seasonal rainfall patterns across many parts of the world, El Niño could have significant consequences for agricultural production and food security. At the same time, the Iran war and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel and fertilizer prices, adding another layer of pressure to food systems.
Together, these overlapping climate, geopolitical, and market shocks pose potentially serious threats to food production and food security, although their impacts will vary by geography and timing. New IFPRI analyses from Malawi illustrate how these risks can converge at the country level, examining how El Niño and rising fertilizer costs could affect farmers and food security in 2027, and what policymakers can do now while there is still time to prepare.
Malawi is only part of the picture. IFPRI will soon publish additional analyses examining potential impacts in Ethiopia, Kenya, India, and the global food system, drawing on economic modeling and policy research.
On October 8, join IFPRI for the policy seminar, Double Exposure: How El Niño and the Iran Crisis Could Reshape Food Security, which will explore the potential consequences of these overlapping shocks and how policymakers can prepare.
Read the Malawi analyses:
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8th African Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI was honored to support the 8th African Conference of Agricultural Economists, held September 22–25 in Nairobi under the theme “Smart Agriculture: Innovation, Digital Transformation, and Trade for a Climate-Challenged Africa.” Oliver Kirui chaired the Local Organizing Committee, and IFPRI Director General Johan Swinnen delivered a keynote address. Several IFPRI colleagues also received honors recognizing their leadership and contributions to the field.
Steven Were Omamo elected AAAE President
IFPRI’s Steven Were Omamo was elected President of the African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE), recognizing his longstanding engagement and leadership in agricultural economics and food policy in Africa.
IFPRI-Nigeria team wins Best Gender Paper Award
A paper led by Chibuzo Nwagboso, with Opeyemi Olanrewaju, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Oliver Kirui, Olufemi Popoola, and Adetunji Fasoranti, received the conference’s Best Gender Paper Award. Their study, “Gendered Dimensions of Labor Participation and Output Allocation in Nigeria’s Aquaculture,” uses nationally representative data to examine how gender shapes fish farm management.
AAAE Fellows 2026
Suresh Babu, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow and Head of Learning and Capacity Strengthening, and Johan Swinnen, IFPRI Director General, were recognized as AAAE Fellows.
Congratulations to all our colleagues on these well-deserved honors!
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Aligning private incentives with societal goals in smallholder agriculture: The authors, including IFPRI’s Gashaw Abate and Ruth Hill, examine why smallholder farmers may underinvest in practices that deliver broader benefits to society—and what policymakers can do about it. They develop a framework for identifying the right mix of policy tools, illustrated through case studies on aflatoxin mitigation, biofortified crops, and conservation agriculture. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
Co-coverage of social protection programs and maternal and child nutrition interventions in Bangladesh, India and Nepal: Using six population-based surveys in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, authors including IFPRI’s Samuel Scott, Sumanta Neupane, Sunny Kim, and Harold Alderman examine whether vulnerable women and children are being reached by both social protection programs and maternal and child health and nutrition interventions. They find that co-coverage remains generally low, pointing to gaps in program reach and data—and opportunities to better connect services for those who need them most. (Maternal & Child Nutrition)
Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria: Authors including IFPRI’s Bedru Balana, Steven Were Omamo, Mulubrhan Amare, Olufemi Popoola, Chibuzo Nwagboso, and Kwaw Andam examine how food systems function in northern Nigeria amid climate and conflict shocks, analyzing production hubs, trade routes, markets, transport, and processing. They identify systemic inefficiencies—including high input and transport costs and infrastructure deficits—and highlight policy and investment priorities for building more resilient and efficient food systems. (Global Food Security)
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For more frequent updates on the latest peer-reviewed publications from IFPRI researchers, read and sign up for our weekly newsletter on LinkedIn, Weekly Reads from IFPRI.
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The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) named Dr. Joseph Glauber, IFPRI Research Fellow Emeritus and former chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as the recipient of the 2026 CAST Lifetime Achievement Award (CLAA).
The CLAA recognizes individuals whose sustained, career-long contributions have advanced agricultural science, science communication, or science-based leadership in food, agriculture, and the environment.
Congratulations, Joe!
Read the announcement
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Why measuring youth opportunity in Africa’s agrifood systems is essential for growing quality jobs The Standard (Kenya) published an op-ed by Alice Ruhweza and Johan Swinnen about why better measurement is essential if we want Africa’s agrifood systems to create more quality jobs for young people.
Who gets what? Budgets and discretion in community-led social protection targeting VoxDev article by Kibrom Abay, Guush Berhane, Daniel Gilligan, Kibrom Tafere, and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse explores recent research on Ethiopia that tests how budget constraints and variations in targeting rules impact targeting outcomes.
How much of your food spending actually reaches the farmer? The Indian Express published this article by Sudha Narayanan, Barun Deb Pal, and Aditi Gautam that explores how much of each rupee spent by consumers on food actually goes to the farmer.
Food Loss and Waste Awareness Day: Nutrient-dense foods lost first, driving hidden hunger Nutrition Insight quoted Alan de Brauw, senior research fellow at IFPRI, in this article on the International Day of Awareness of Food Loss and Waste. “We need to know more about where losses occur within value chains so we can come up with better innovations to reduce them,” de Brauw explained.
IFPRI researcher’s paper featured among influential articles on family economics A paper co-authored by IFPRI Research Fellow Mehrab Bakhtiar was selected for The Economic Journal’s new Family Economics virtual issue, which brings together 11 “particularly influential and illuminating” articles spanning six decades of research on how families make decisions and shape economic outcomes.
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⚡ Blog Series: Conflicts and Other Shocks Impacting Food Systems
El Niño and rising fertilizer costs: How vulnerable is Malawi in 2027?
By Chris Hillbruner, Karl Pauw, and Weston Anderson
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Climate Change Food Crises Food Security Markets and Value Chains
How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
By Joseph Glauber and Shawn Arita
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Crises Markets and Value Chains
💻 Blog Series: AI For Food Systems Research
Building control and trust for farmers in agriculture’s generative AI transition
By Katarzyna Kosior
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
🔍 Research Posts
Beyond the violence: How farmer-herder conflict is reshaping rural livelihoods in the Sahel
By Katrina Kosec, Lucia Carrillo, Jordan Kyle, and Jeffrey Bloem
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Fragility and Conflict
Food is always close by: Why availability alone doesn’t explain adolescent diets in Viet Nam
By Gabriela Fretes, Nicholus Zaw, Phuong Nguyen, Agnes Le Port, Kim Maasen, Elise Talsma, Mai Tuyet Truong, Trang TT Tran, Inge D. Brouwer, Marie Ruel, and Jef L. Leroy
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Health Nutrition
🎤 Event Posts
Sudan’s conflict at three years: Evidence for recovery, resilience, and rebuilding
By Tarig Alhaj Rakhy, Hala Abushama, and Khalid Siddig
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Systems Fragility and Conflict
Strengthening nutrition programs in a changing world: A preview of Track B at the Micronutrient Forum 7th Global Conference
By Deanna Olney and Mduduzi Mbuya
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Nutrition
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For more than four decades, IFPRI has supported evidence-based policymaking in Nigeria across agriculture, food security, and rural development. What began in the 1980s as Washington-based analytical research has evolved into a deep, locally-based, and sustained partnership through the Nigeria Strategy Support Program (NSSP).
Over time, IFPRI’s engagement has expanded beyond research to encompass policy advisory support, institutional strengthening, capacity development, knowledge sharing, and collaboration with government agencies and development partners.
Learn more in this new blog by Tamsin Zandstra and Hashim Ahmed, part of our “Making a Difference” series.
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October 5-9, 2026 | Bangkok, Thailand
