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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Lilia Bliznashka

Lily Bliznashka is a Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit. Her research focuses on assessing the effectiveness of multi-input nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions and the mechanisms through which they work to improve maternal and child health and nutrition globally. She has worked in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM)

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James Thurlow is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, where he oversees the institute’s research program on the major drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation and sustainable development. James’ own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between policies and agrifood systems; structural, climate, and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen foresight capabilities and enhance the coherence of development strategies.

Publications

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Publications

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Working Paper

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue
Details

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups. The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers. In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Escalante, Luis; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; and Niyonsingiza, Josue. 2026. Gender, youth, and growth: Productivity–Transformation Nexus in Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2415. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Labour; Labour Productivity; Gender; Youth; Economic Growth; Transformation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Book Chapter

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

2026Siddig, Khalid; Elnour, Zuhal; Thurlow, James
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Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Year published

2026

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Elnour, Zuhal; Thurlow, James

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Elnour, Zuhal; and Thurlow, James. 2026. Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery. In War and Resilience: The Multifaceted Impacts of Sudan’s Conflict and Pathways to Recovery, eds. Khalid Siddig, Oliver K. Kirui, and Paul Dorosh. Section Two: Economic, Social, and Humanitarian Impacts, Chapter 7, Pp. 147-167. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/182369

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Economic Impact; Conflicts; Economic Recovery; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Journal Article

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

2026Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries’ GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya’s primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya’s agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2026. Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries. Economic Modelling 157(April 2026): 107511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Events

IFPRI @ 9th KIPPRA Annual Regional Conference
IFPRI at External Event

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May 20 to 22, 2026

IFPRI @ 9th KIPPRA Annual Regional Conference

IFPRI is pleased to participate in the 9th edition of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) Annual Regional Conference, taking place May 20–22, 2026 in Mombasa, Kenya. The 2026 conference theme is Strengthening Value Chains for Inclusive Growth in Kenya. The KIPPRA Annual Regional Conference is Kenya’s foremost platform for evidence-based […]

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 14, 2026, 9:00 – 11:00 am

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems

While the global food system has largely adjusted to the disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers following the invasion of Ukraine, the new conflict in the Middle East introduces a new set of challenges at a time when markets and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant […]

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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December 15, 2025, 9:00 – 4:00 pm

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact

In today’s fast-changing world and evolving food systems, the need for evidence-based food policy has never been more urgent – demanding research that is timely, inclusive, and tailored to context. Reliable data and rigorous analysis are essential, but research must also evolve – and become more timely, more relevant, and more inclusive of diverse voices […]

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News

February 09, 2026 | Press Release

New IFPRI study introduces breakthrough framework to assess economic risks in developing countries

A groundbreaking approach to understanding how developing economies are affected by multiple, simultaneous shocks.

June 23, 2025 | Press Release

New study proposes smarter cropland allocation to support sustainable agricultural intensification in Senegal

The study explores how farmers’ land-use decisions can be guided by the relative risks and returns of different crops—similar to how financial investments are managed.

August 13, 2024 | In the News

Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

Despite the stark reality, there is a potential path forward for Sudan, believe IFPRI experts.

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