Key takeaways

• ·A recent IFPRI event explored how overlapping shocks are raising food security risks. Conflict-driven disruptions and a strong El Niño could increase food, energy, and fertilizer prices, putting additional pressure on vulnerable countries.
• ·Climate impacts may outweigh market shocks. New IFPRI modeling suggests El Niño is the main driver of projected losses in countries such as Malawi and Ethiopia, with lower agricultural output and higher poverty risks.
• ·Preparedness and safety nets can reduce harm. Early warning systems, anticipatory action, social protection programs, and national preparedness plans help countries respond more effectively when climate and conflict crises overlap.

A record El Niño event is coming on top of an array of global challenges, including conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine disrupting Black Sea shipping. An October 8 IFPRI policy seminar examined how these overlapping shocks could affect food security and what governments and international organizations are doing to respond and prepare. Moderator Chris Hillbruner, Head of IFPRI’s Global Food Security Program, framed the discussion in two parts: the potential impacts of these shocks, and what lessons they hold for response.

In opening remarks, IFPRI Director General Johan Swinnen noted that “IFPRI has been producing a number of rapid analyses on the heterogeneous impact of these [shocks] both globally and at country level.” This kind of analysis is necessary given the compounding nature of such large shocks, he said.

Global markets under pressure

Joseph Glauber, IFPRI Research Fellow Emeritus, said that until this year, global markets for grains and oilseeds had continued to function well despite energy and fertilizer prices that remained elevated after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That changed following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March in the wake of attacks by the United States and Israel. The strait is a key route for nitrogen-based fertilizers and sulfur. Recent bottlenecks in the Black Sea have added pressure. “We’ve seen increased hostilities with port attacks, and that has shifted a lot of the trade to alternative routes,” he said.

Since January 2026, grain prices are up 23%, energy prices are up 60%, and fertilizer prices are up 8%. Sulfur prices have more than doubled, and phosphate exports have dropped sharply due to export restrictions. Still, crop conditions seem relatively good around the world, Glauber said. Global stocks will be drawn down this year, but the situation is not nearly as concerning as the 2007-2008 food price crisis.

Modeling country-level impacts

Emerta Aragie, IFPRI Research Fellow, presented new simulations from IFPRI’s Foresight and Rapid Response Modeling System (FARRMS). The scenarios combine two shocks: higher fuel and fertilizer prices from the Iran war and El Niño-driven declines in agricultural productivity.

GDP impacts vary by country, and agriculture is more exposed than the overall economy, Aragie said. Researchers ran the simulation for both Ethiopia and Malawi and found that in both countries, El Niño is the main driver of losses. Agricultural output may fall 8% in Malawi and 2% in Ethiopia, and millions of people could be pushed back into poverty due to these compounding events.

Response priorities amid fiscal constraints

Richard Choularton, Director of the Climate and Resilience Service at the World Food Programme (WFP), said that his greatest concern is the confluence of these shocks, which creates the potential for much wider food crises. A number of countries already face famine conditions, while regions that are not hotspots today could be in the near future.

Choularton noted that WFP’s first El Niño contingency plan dates back to 1997/1998. “The tools we have today are fundamentally different,” he said. “One of the critical things about El Niño is that in addition to causing climate and weather extremes, it increases the predictability of forecasts around them, which gives us a unique timeline to respond.”

WFP now has early warning systems tracking floods and storms in 51 countries. It set out to reach 1 million people with anticipatory action in 2026 and has already reached 1.5 million across about 20 countries, a result Choularton credited largely to the strength of the El Niño forecast.  Planning now matters because these shocks make recovery more difficult. “We know that if you are born in Niger in a drought year you are twice as likely to be stunted,” he said.

Natasha Mbengo, Chief Disaster Preparedness Officer in Malawi’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), said Malawi does not produce its own fertilizer and already has over 2 million food-insecure people. “Recent studies from IFPRI suggest that Malawi is entering into [this] El Niño season in a more vulnerable position than previous El Niño episodes, and this is because disaster risk is now combined with elevated fertilizer prices [and] elevated food prices,” she said. “Currently the cost of fertilizer is over 100 USD per bag, so this has really serious negative bearing on the country.”

The government of Malawi and its partners are preparing before the drought fully hits, Mbengo said. Their efforts include using seasonal forecasts to help farmers make informed decisions about crops and varieties, encouraging crop diversification, and partnering with the private sector to help finance a national El Niño preparedness plan.

This approach differs from previous ones, she said, because there was previously no national preparedness plan focused on mitigation.

Ashley Pople, Economist at the World Bank, introduced a new dimension to the discussion: system response. “We’ve been talking about how these shocks intersect with existing vulnerabilities, but the additional layer I would add is [the effectiveness of] the systems we have to respond to these crises,” she said. Monitoring, early warning, financing, and delivery systems such as social protection all matter. “Even countries that have these systems in place, if they are highly exposed, will typically be able to navigate these shocks more effectively. For example, Kenya and Ethiopia have scalable safety net systems … whereas countries like Somalia that do not have these systems in place have been hit harder in the past,” she said.

The evidence on anticipatory action has grown substantially. “Broadly the evidence suggests that even receiving a small cash transfer has both helped households avoid skipping meals during floods themselves but also improves food security in the months thereafter,” she said. But she cautioned that in the medium to long term, the welfare gains from an anticipatory transfer and a later transfer tend to converge. Forms of longer-term support such as graduation programs or regular cash transfer programs are still needed. “There are multiple opportunities to act, and you have to adjust to those windows of opportunity,” she said.

Looking ahead

In closing remarks, Ruth Hill, Director of IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit, noted the progress that’s been made even as risks proliferate. “We’re [at] a moment of really concerning overlaps of weather and conflict that will have significant impacts, when resources to respond are not as much as we would like,” she said. “[But] we are in a better position to forecast, understand impacts, and be anticipatory.”

Catherine Gavin is an intern with IFPRI’s Director General’s Office.