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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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TOPIC

Food Prices

The world is currently facing another period of volatile and rising food and commodity prices stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, similar to levels witnessed in 2007/08 and 2010/11, and adding to pandemic-related disruptions at a time when high levels of poverty and income inequality have put healthy diets out of reach for 3 billion people worldwide. IFPRI’s new Policy Seminar Series on Food and Fertilizer Price Trends is bringing experts together to discuss the potential impacts of rising prices and policy responses on global food security and nutrition. When food prices rise, food producers and policymakers must respond quickly, but producers are often unprepared to meet increased demand and policymakers lack the evidence-based macroeconomic policy tools needed to take action. Given the differing implications of high and volatile food prices across regions and populations, policy responses must be developed and adapted to country-specific needs and conditions.

… read more

IFPRI has developed innovative food policy analysis tools—such as the Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System and the Food Security Portal—to provide stakeholders and policymakers with international, regional, and country-level data, news, and evidence-based research to inform development of food policies in their respective countries. IFPRI’s work on price volatility and its transmission from international to local markets is continuously improving policy analysis and is used by international networks such as the Agricultural Market Information Systems (AMIS) and the Food Security Information Network (FSIN).IFPRI’s new Policy Seminar Series on Food and Fertilizer Price Trends is bringing experts together to discuss the potential impacts of rising prices and policy responses on global food security and nutrition.

Click here for IFPRI Policy Seminar Series on 2021/22 high food and fertilizer prices and here for IFPRI Blogs.

IFPRI’s research on this topic is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 1, SDG 2, SDG 10, and SDG 12.

food_prices

topics

Publications

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Working Paper

Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala

2026Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala

Guatemala experiences high and persistent poverty and chronic malnutrition, especially in rural areas of the Western Highlands, where agricultural productivity is low, market integration is limited, and households remain vulnerable to multiple shocks. This paper evaluates the impacts of a regional value chain project combining interventions aimed at strengthening agricultural production, market access, and nutrition-sensitive practices. Using household survey data collected from beneficiary and control households in 2019 and 2022, we assess project impacts on outcomes related to production and income, food security, and nutrition. The findings suggest relatively modest impacts during the evaluation period. The intervention contributed to some degree of agricultural diversification, particularly through increased production of fruits and vegetables, while reducing moderate or severe food insecurity episodes and improving children’s weight-for-height z-scores. However, we do not find broader improvements in household expenditures, dietary diversity, or longer-term child nutritional outcomes. Additional analyses reveal limited evidence of meaningful differences in impacts across implementing partners, project components and treatment intensity, household groups, and exposure to specific shocks. These findings highlight the challenges of achieving measurable gains through integrated value chain and nutrition interventions in vulnerable environments and point to the importance of accounting for broader contextual factors in project design and evaluation.

Year published

2026

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Espinoza Hernandez, Alvaro; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2026. Integrated value chain interventions in vulnerable settings: Evidence from Guatemala. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2458. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/186301

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Latin America and the Caribbean; Value Chains; Agriculture; Diversification; Household Expenditure; Food Security; Nutrition; Rural Communities; Vulnerable Groups

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Report

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2026

2026Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian
Details

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2026

-Rice prices continued to increase in September 2026, with the national average rising by 6.2 percent month on-month and 27.9 percent year-on-year. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with particularly sharp increases in Kachin, Ayeyarwady, and Mon. Flooding, transportation disruptions, and damage to monsoon paddy fields contributed to higher prices and raised concerns about upcoming harvests. -Crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize, black gram, and pigeon pea prices remained well above year-earlier levels, while green gram prices declined amid softer Chinese demand. Onion prices surged by 37.6 percent month-on-month and 240.1 percent year-on-year on reduced supply and continued buying from Thailand. Chili prices stayed elevated; potato prices declined despite weather-related crop damage. -Most animal-sourced food prices remained above year-earlier levels, though chicken and egg prices eased month-on-month. Mutton prices held at record highs (+68.6 percent year-on-year), while pork prices stayed below year-earlier levels amid continued disease concerns and soft demand. -Ongoing disruptions to Middle East shipping routes continue to pressure fuel and fertilizer costs, with fertilizer prices still well above last year’s levels – a risk to fertilizer use and agricultural production. -Heavy rain, flooding and structural damage to the Ma Mya Dam in Ayeyarwady, along with strengthening El Nino conditions, pose continued risks to agricultural production and food supply chains. -The outlook for Myanmar's food markets remains shaped by weather risks, elevated input costs, and shifting export conditions, including Thailand's maize import policy, China's green gram residue requirements, and proposed private-sector food price stabilization measures.

Year published

2026

Authors

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian

Citation

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; and Masias, Ian. 2026. Myanmar monthly food price report – September 2026. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report September 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/186244

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Food Prices; Food Security; Agricultural Marketing; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Brief

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2026

2026International Food Policy Research Institute; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Hayoge, Glen
Details

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea (PNG) for the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 (July to September), using the data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA). Two rounds of data were collected in all six markets in July and August. In September, two rounds were collected in Banz, Goroka, Kokopo and Port Moresby, and no data were collected in Lae and Mt. Hagen. The bulletin analyzes month-over month changes in Q3 2026, as well as compares prices with the previous quarter (Q2 2026: April to June) and the same period in 2025 (Q3 2025).

Year published

2026

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Hayoge, Glen

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute. 2026. Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2026. Papua New Guinea Food Price Bulletin October 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/186222

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Food Prices; Food Security; Nutrition; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Untangling the sources of India’s sugar price spike
Issue Post
 | 
October 28, 2026

Untangling the sources of India’s sugar price spike

By Deepayan Debnath, Parthapratim Pal, and Suresh Babu

Domestic policies vs. global market disruptions.

How African economies are absorbing the 2026 oil price shock (so far)
Issue Post
 | 
July 06, 2026

How African economies are absorbing the 2026 oil price shock (so far)

By Kalle Hirvonen, Katrina Kosec, and Kibrom Abay

Global market spikes have diverse domestic impacts.

Nigeria's fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict
Issue Post
 | 
June 22, 2026

Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict

By Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, Adetunji Fasoranti, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Bedru Balana, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Steven Were Omamo

A major energy producer faces complex impacts.

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Events

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 12, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture

Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. How will El Niño conditions affect global agricultural production, trade flows, and commodity prices, especially amid overlapping shocks from high energy prices and logistical disruptions? Effects […]

IFPRI @ XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026)
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

October 25 to 29, 2026

IFPRI @ XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026)

The XXI Latin American Congress of Nutrition (SLAN 2026) will take place from 25–29 October 2026 in Santiago, Chile, bringing together researchers, academics, health professionals, policymakers, and students from across the region to discuss the future of food systems and nutrition. The congress will be held at the Centro Cultural CEINA, a prominent cultural and […]

Launch of the Papua New Guinea Food Price Monitoring Tool
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

October 15, 2026, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Launch of the Papua New Guinea Food Price Monitoring Tool

Food accounts for a large share of household budgets in Papua New Guinea, and when prices rise, the poorest families feel it first. Timely, easy-to-use price information can help government agencies, programs, and traders assess whether prices are rising, where food is cheapest, and whether a price increase is occurring due to climate events such […]

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News

October 02, 2026 | In the News

From fields to markets: The cost of climate shocks drives up food prices (Al Jazeera)

IFPRI’s Rob Vos explains that high food prices will remain a threat as the effects of climate change continue, particularly through rising temperatures and their impact on agricultural production in many parts of the world.

September 11, 2026 | In the News

The threat of higher diesel prices to grocery bills (Washington Examiner)

Washington Examiner quoted Joseph Glauber in the article on the impact of fuel prices on food prices.

August 23, 2026 | In the News

The world’s breadbaskets are getting pounded by war, weather and trade spats (NYT)

The New York Times quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on the U.S. wheat prices and affordability.

View all News

Projects

High Potential Proteins

High Potential Proteins

Protein has reemerged as an important research and policy priority, driven by concerns about protein quality and adequacy, affordability and access, changing nutritional needs across……

Food Security Simulator

Food Security Simulator

The Food Security Simulator is an innovative, easy-to-use MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks on food……

Tajikistan Evaluation and Analysis Activity

Tajikistan Evaluation and Analysis Activity

…

Agricultural Transformation and Market Integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to Food Security and Inclusiveness Concerns

Agricultural Transformation and Market Integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to Food Security and Inclusiveness Concerns

…

View all Projects

Our experts

Manuel Hernandez

Manuel Hernandez

Senior Research Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions, Latin America and the Caribbean

Nicholas Minot

Nicholas Minot

Research Fellow Emeritus, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Shahidur Rashid

Shahidur Rashid

Director, South Asia Office, South
Asia, Development Strategies and Governance

Brendan Rice

Brendan Rice

Research Specialist, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Khalid Siddig

Khalid Siddig

Senior Research Fellow, Development
Strategies and Governance

Razin Kabir

Razin Kabir

Senior Program Manager, Poverty,
Gender, and Inclusion

Charlotte Hebebrand

Charlotte Hebebrand

Director of Communications and Public Affairs, Communications
and Public Affairs (CPA)