Resilience

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.