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Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices
After peaking in early 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wheat prices have fallen over most of the past four years. This year’s U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy and fertilizer prices soaring but had a relatively small impact on grain prices—grain exports were relatively unaffected, and fertilizer impacts are not likely to affect grain production for several months.
But now, wheat prices are on the rise again. Widespread drought has affected crop conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and increased tensions in the Black Sea are again threatening wheat supplies. As a result, wheat prices have increased almost 25% above their January 2026 levels, reaching their highest levels in two years.
In his latest piece in our special blog series exploring food system shocks, Joseph Glauber explains how this new set of problems roils markets. Read more
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Revisiting the political economy of agriculture in 21st century food systems: Danielle Resnick and Johan Swinnen draw on recent examples from Europe, Brazil, and Mexico to highlight how competing goals, diverse stakeholders, geopolitical tensions, and digital misinformation are transforming the politics of modern food systems. (Journal of Agricultural Economics)
Responsible use of AI and machine learning for food security early warning systems: The authors, including IFPRI’s Rob Vos, argue that to avoid costly errors, artificial intelligence and machine learning should be applied selectively alongside expert oversight, robust governance and transparent practices to maintain accountable and effective humanitarian decision-making. (Nature Food)
Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050: This study uses 44 indicators to assess global progress toward food system transformation, finding that current rates of change are insufficient to meet most 2030 targets. The authors, including IFPRI’s Hazel Malapit, Quinn Marshall, Danielle Resnick, and Keith Wiebe, conclude that achieving most targets and benchmarks by 2050 is possible if countries correct course and accelerate progress, but certain indicators will require considerable investment and intervention. (Nature Food)
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For more frequent updates on the latest peer-reviewed publications from IFPRI researchers, read and sign up for our weekly newsletter on LinkedIn, Weekly Reads from IFPRI.
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💻 Blog Series: AI For Food Systems Research
🔍 Research Posts
Measuring the state of global food insecurity: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages
By Derek Headey
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Security
Limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Evidence from a Malawi experiment
By Thomas Assefa, Jonathan Atkinson, Hailemariam Ayalew Tiruneh, Joachim De Weerdt, Edwin Siyame, David J. Spielman, and Bjorn Van Campenhout
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agricultural Production
Understanding soil health in practice: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme
By Ritwick Ghosh, Wei Zhang, Upeksha Hettiarachchi, Francis Phillip, and Ryan Nehring
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agricultural Production Environment and Natural Resources
Conservation and restoration actions in a multifunctional landscape: Lessons from Tunisia
By Bedru Balana, Aymen Frija, Zied Idoudi, Upeksha Hettiarachchi, and Wei Zhang
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agricultural Production Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity Environment and Natural Resources
When the rains fail, who goes hungry? Rainfall, gender, and child nutrition in Papua New Guinea
By Jessica Leight, Emily Schmidt, and Rishabh Mukerjee
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Climate Change Food Security Nutrition
Collaborative leadership strengthens research capacity and climate action: Lessons from Tamil Nadu, India
By Suresh Babu, D. Suresh Kumar, and Sudha Narayanan
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Capacity Strengthening Climate Change
Food on the go: How food environments shape adolescent diets in Viet Nam
By Gabriela Fretes, Phuong Nguyen, Soyra Gune, Kim Maasen, Elise Talsma, Mai Tuyet Truong, Nga Thu Hoang, Inge D. Brouwer, Marie Ruel, and Jef L. Leroy
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Health Nutrition
🎤 Event Posts
Putting advocacy into practice at the Gen Z Food & Hunger Summit
By Maria DiGiovanni
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Security
‘From assuming to knowing’: How impact evaluations support the design, delivery, and scale-up of school meal programs
By the World Food Programme Impact Evaluation Team
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Social Protection
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In the paddy fields of Odisha, India, many farmers cultivate land they do not own, and thus do not have land titles that can be used as collateral to obtain formal credit for agricultural activities. Instead, they must rely on informal, often high-interest loans. But digital technologies are offering new ways to integrate smallholders into the financial system.
IFPRI and Dvara have been working since 2018 on KhetScore, an innovation that digitizes smallholder farmer agricultural profiles; scores their credit risk based on satellite imagery; and protects them from production risk by providing picture-based insurance.
Learn more in this new blog by Berber Kramer, Senthil Kumar Sankararaju, and Tarun Katoch, part of our “Making a Difference” series.
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 September 15, 2026 | 9:30am – 11:00am (US/Eastern)
AI Policy Considerations for Food, Land, and Water Systems
Co-organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Digital Transformation Accelerator
September 22 – September 25, 2026 | Nairobi, Kenya
IFPRI @ the 8th African Conference of Agricultural Economics (ACAE)
Smart Agriculture: Innovation, Digital Transformation, and Trade for a Climate-Challenged Africa
September 28 – October 1, 2026 | Accra, Ghana
IFPRI @ Micronutrient Forum: 7th Global Conference
Nutrition at the Frontiers of a Changing Environment
September 29, 2026 | 9:30 – 10:30am (US/Eastern)
Making Food System Costs Visible: A Policy Imperative for Multifunctional Landscapes
Co-organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Multifunctional Landscapes Science Program
September 30, 2026 | 9:30 – 12:00pm (US/Eastern)
Measuring Women’s Agency: New Tools, Takeaways, and What Comes Next
Organized by IFPRI and the World Bank
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IFPRI @ African Food Systems Forum (AFSF) 2026
August 31 – September 4, 2026 | Kigali, Rwanda
Investing in Africa’s Agri-food Systems: Nourishing Nations, Growing Jobs, Building Resilience.
IFPRI @ World Water Week 2026
August 23 to 27, 2026 | Stockholm, Sweden
Water for People and Progress
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