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In Focus: Fragility and Conflict
Fragility and conflict remain major challenges for food systems, livelihoods, and economic development worldwide. IFPRI’s integrated research agenda on fragility and conflict aims to inform monitoring, anticipation, prevention, crisis response, and long-term recovery strategies.
Tracking the global repercussions of conflict in the Middle East
Over recent months, IFPRI has continued to examine how conflict in the Middle East is affecting fertilizer and energy costs, with ripple effects for farmers and consumers far beyond the region. Our most recent analysis included:
- Country-level analysis: Iran War increasing global poverty and food insecurity (James Thurlow and Eleanor Jones)
- Women as shock absorbers: Gendered costs of the global fuel and fertilizer crisis (Elizabeth Basauri Bryan, Muzna Alvi, Marame Cisse, Faith Gikunda, Eric Kirimi, Hamza Muhammad, Claudia Ringler, Tirsit Sahledengil, Bello Yakasai, and Taddese Zerfu)
- How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks (Shawn Arita, Ming Wang, and Joseph Glauber)
- The Iran war: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina face rising fertilizer and energy prices (Joseph Glauber, Valeria Piñeiro, and Juan Pablo Gianatiempo)
- Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict (Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, Adetunji Fasoranti, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Bedru Balana, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Steven Were Omamo)
- Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? (Rob Vos, Welthungerhilfe)
- Why India needs a fertilizer security strategy (Barun Deb Pal and Anjani Kumar, The Economic Times)
Identifying pathways to resilience and recovery
While tracking the impacts of conflict remains essential, IFPRI is equally focused on identifying solutions that can strengthen resilience and support recovery in fragile settings.
As Katrina Kosec noted at the launch of IFPRI’s new partnership with UNU-WIDER on June 10, approximately 2 billion people live in contexts of extreme or high fragility—about one-quarter of the world’s population—and these same contexts account for roughly 72% of the world’s extreme poor. As a result, “fragility is increasingly becoming the geography of global poverty.”
Recent IFPRI research and engagements are helping identify practical pathways to resilience and recovery in these settings, including:
- Can cash and therapy work in conflict settings? Evidence from Ethiopia (Melissa Hidrobo, Harold Alderman, Negussie Deyessa, Daniel Gilligan, Parthu Kalva, Jessica Leight, Michael Mulford, and Heleene Tambet)
- Can simpler, cheaper poverty graduation programs still deliver? Evidence from Ethiopia (Jessica Leight, Daniel Gilligan, Melissa Hidrobo, Harold Alderman, and Michael Mulford)
- NPR interview with Jessica Leight on evidence that graduation programs can be effective even in the most fragile contexts, such as Somalia.
- IFPRI-GIZ event on Yemen examining how investments in the fisheries sector could support economic recovery, livelihoods, and food security after years of conflict.
Learn more about the new IFPRI – UNU-WIDER partnership and IFPRI work on Fragility and Conflict
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June 23, 2026 | 9:30am – 11:00am (US/Eastern)
Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What’s Driving Food Commodity Markets?
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
June 30, 2026 | 9:00am – 11:00am (US/Eastern)
Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14
Organized by IFPRI, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations
November 30 – December 1, 2026 | Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Youth, Jobs, and Voice in Africa’s Agrifood System
Submission deadline for call for papers: August 30, 2026
Organized by the CGIAR Policy Innovations Program and the CGIAR GENDER Accelerator
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India’s national maternity benefit cash transfer program and child anthropometry:
India’s Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana is the world’s largest rights-based conditional cash transfer program targeting women during their first pregnancy. Using National Family Health Survey data from 2005 to 2021, Soumyajit Ray, Phuong Hong Nguyen, Sumantra Pal, Samuel Scott, Purnima Menon, and Suman Chakrabarti assess changes in growth in a nationally representative sample of children, before and after program implementation. ( Scientific Reports)
Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS):
Agnes Quisumbing, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Hazel Malapit, Jessica Heckert, Flor Paz, Emily Meyers, and colleagues developed and tested the WEMNS survey module for use by national statistical offices and survey organizations in low- and middle-income countries to measure women’s and men’s empowerment. ( PLoS One)
Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: Community-based targeting that uses community leaders as targeting agents is often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. Kibrom Abay, Guush Berhane, Daniel Gilligan, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, and Kibrom Tafere find that, when resources are limited, community leaders prefer to increase the number of beneficiaries by reducing the average transfer amounts. Community leaders appear to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors. ( Journal of Development Economics)
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For more frequent updates on the latest peer-reviewed publications from IFPRI researchers, read and sign up for our weekly newsletter on LinkedIn, Weekly Reads from IFPRI.
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💻 Blog Series: AI For Food Systems Research
As AI reshapes development research, investing in data must be a key priority
By Kalle Hirvonen and Jessica Leight
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Beyond the model: Evaluating AI agricultural advisory systems so they work in the field
By Josué Kpodo, Jagannath R, Michael Minkoff, and Niyati Singaraju
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Agricultural Extension
Two forms of critical AI literacy and why they matter for farming communities
By Chioma Chigozie-Okwum, Ameen Jauhar, and Eliot Jones-Garcia
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Agricultural Extension
Are subsidies the solution for ‘costly’ small-scale irrigation technologies?
By Claudia Ringler and Nicole Lefore
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Water and Irrigation Policy and Institutions
🌱 Blog Series: Financing Food System Transformation
From farm risk to value chain resilience: Food system benefits of agricultural insurance
By Rodrigo Salcedo Du Bois and Carola M. Alvarez
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Climate Change Food Systems Insurance and Risk Markets and Value Chains
🌍 Blog Series: Political Economy in Practice: Lessons from food system reforms around the world
Two steps forward, one step back? Champions and roadblocks for Mexico’s General Law on Adequate and Sustainable Food
By Danielle Resnick and Fiorella Espinosa de Candido
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Systems Governance
🔍 Research Posts
Reducing ozone pollution can offset the food security cost of climate action
By Abhijeet Mishra, Timothy Sulser, Keith Wiebe, and Eleanor Jones
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agriculture Production
The case for tackling multiple constraints for smallholder farmers: Evidence from Malawi
By Kate Ambler, Alan de Brauw, and Susan Godlonton
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agricultural Extension Agriculture Production Social Protection
Making food system costs visible: A policy imperative for Colombia and Peru
By Kristin Davis, Rui Benfica, Carlo Azzarri, Sedi Boukaka, Carlo Fadda, and Baragu Geoffrey
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Food Systems Environment and Natural Resources
When climate shocks reduce harvests, children pay the price: Evidence from Nigeria
By Mulubrhan Amare and Bedru Balana
🏷️IFPRI Topics: Agriculture Production Climate Change Health Nutrition
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IFPRI and AFAAS partner across four countries to test AI tools for farmer advisory services
New collaboration with African Forum for Agricultural Advisory Services (AFAAS) will explore how generative AI can strengthen agricultural extension systems across Africa. By prioritizing trust, usability, language accessibility, and local relevance, this effort aims to ensure AI complements—not replaces—the human relationships at the heart of agricultural advisory services. (Press release)
Iran war forces farmers to seek fertilizer alternatives from cow dung to compost
AP quotes IFPRI: “The Gulf region produces 30% of globally traded chemical fertilizer, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, and global prices have increased by 50%, according to the World Bank’s fertilizer price index.”
China Focus: China’s sustained poverty reduction efforts offer global experience
Xinhua (China) reports about the launch of the Global Partnership for Poverty Alleviation and Development (GPPAD) in Beijing. IFPRI’s Kevin Chen noted at the forum that China combined top-down surveys with bottom-up grassroots participation to build a dynamic poverty registry.
‘Hidden Hunger’: Climate crisis reduces food nutrients and widens global inequalities
O Globo (Brazil) spoke with Timothy Sulser about adaptation strategies for agricultural systems, such as improved seeds. Sulser noted that in order for these varieties to reach vulnerable populations, coordinated efforts by public and private institutions are necessary. (Read more)
Zamfara transforming education through school meals — IFPRI, WFP
Vanguard News and The Punch (Nigeria) highlight findings from a recent IFPRI and WFP assessment of Zamfara State’s school feeding program. The articles quote a recent IFPRI piece by Oliver Kirui, Chibuzo Nwagboso, Asabe Maidawa, and Aisha Ololade, “How school meals are transforming education in Zamfara State, Nigeria.” (Read more)
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